Few people can claim to have been closer to all of Ecuador’s presidents over the past century than the Salazar family. At Amazonas Hair Salon, one of the low-rise shops next to the Carondelet Palace presidential residence, Clara Salazar has witnessed the country transform from the Plaza Grande, the focal point of the Ecuadorian capital, while her father cut hair for locals. . What she remembers most is the calm that reigned: there was always one absent-minded customer who remembered needing a haircut at 8 p.m. when the city was in darkness. Now the salon closes at 5 p.m. When the sun goes down, the Plaza Grande empties. “People run home out of fear,” Salazar explains while shaving the sides of a child’s head. From the basement of the presidential house to the furthest corners of Ecuador, insecurity has gripped a country that for many years thought it was safe from violence. On Sunday there will be an election under the guise of terror to elect a new president.
According to Salazar, everything was “much better” under former President Rafael Correa, so she will vote for Correa’s Citizens’ Revolutionary Movement candidate, Luisa González. Alba Castro, 60, walks through the door of the salon and loudly announces that she has come to make her husband beautiful, adding: “On Sunday we will bury the socialism that wants to lead us into the abyss. Salazar greets her with a smile and replies warmly: “Let’s wait for the result.” Mrs. Castro pays her little attention: “I will vote for our angel in heaven: Fernando Villavicencio.”
If the focus of Ecuador’s elections since May has been Correísmo’s possible return to power, the focus is now on the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio of the Construye movement as he walked out of a rally on August 9. That was a murder has revealed to the Ecuadorians the depths of the abyss of violence in which they have been sinking for three years. Villavicencio was not among the favorites to advance to the second round, although he was known for speaking out against corruption and organized crime, which resulted in him receiving death threats. A friend of his, investigative journalist Christian Zurita, will replace Villavicencio in Sunday’s vote, but with no time for changes, 13.5 million voters will see the dead candidate’s face and name on the ballot.
Christian Zurita, presidential candidate of the Construye movement, wears a bulletproof vest as he arrives at the airport in Quito August 15, 2023. Karen Toro (Bloomberg)
It is impossible to assess the impact of Villavicencio’s assassination on the election campaign. In the most recently published polls, Luisa González topped the list, even if she was far from a decisive victory with a support rating of around 30% in the first round. If the polls are right, the big unknown is which of the other seven candidates will accompany González in October’s runoff. A violent election campaign could ultimately benefit Otto Sonnenholzner, former vice president of the Lenín Moreno government (2017-2021), and Jan Topic, the so-called “Ecuadorian Bukele”, due to their tough approach to security and enforcement of the rule of law .
Patricia Toasa supports neither Sonnenholzner nor Topic. From her mobile stand selling soft drinks, sweets and cigarettes, she has been touring the city for 33 years. On many occasions, she secures a privileged corner of the Plaza Grande, from where over the years she has watched the comings and goings of the country’s highest officials to the Presidential Palace. She’s seen them all, but only one has ever spoken to her, she says with a wink. It was a Saturday between 2007 and 2017. President Correa was on his way back to Carondelet Palace when he stopped to chat with Toasa, calling her compañerita and kissing her. “What President will kiss me!” She laughs, revealing her gold-rimmed teeth. And that kiss is well worth his eternal vote, because although Correa moved to Belgium in 2017 and hasn’t returned to Ecuador due to a corruption conviction that he says constitutes a case of political persecution, the former president continues to wield power over Correísmo. the political movement that grew up around him. Voting for González is voting for Correa. A martyr to some, an executioner to others, the former president remains the star of national politics.
These snap elections, called when Guillermo Lasso dissolved parliament in May to avoid an impeachment vote – a move known in Ecuadorian politics as “mutual deaths” – came at the best time for Correísmo since the ousting of his former one leader . The Citizens’ Revolutionary Movement, which Correa directs from afar, won local and regional elections in February. The former president felt that Lasso Correísmo would present victory on a platter. That independence half collapsed in the days after Villavicencio’s assassination, when Correa seemed more concerned than usual: insecurity had already gripped Ecuador.
“Who are we voting for?” asks Imelda Chango, 69, as she takes the hand of Reyna Morocho, 26, dressed in glitter and wearing a sash that reads “Miss Star Ecuador 2023.” The young beauty queen walks around downtown Quito taking pictures with young and old as she prepares, she explains, for an international pageant to be held in Barcelona. Chango asks Morocho which direction she is leaning in, and the young woman replies, as if standing in front of the competition jury, without supporting any candidate: “Ecuador is on its knees, crime is out of control, someone has to get us out of there.” Here.” Ms. Chango is satisfied with the answer. “We are scared, but there is a God in heaven who will guide us,” she says.
Military personnel check vehicles under the state of emergency decreed by Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso following the attack on presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio. Jose Jacome (EFE)
Quito remains the most peaceful area in the country, although violence has increasingly permeated the streets and shops. The hotspot is in Guayaquil and the coastal provinces, where the country’s access to the Pacific makes Ecuador desirable territory for Mexican and Colombian drug trafficking groups. So far, 4,574 violent deaths have been recorded in 2023, while 2022 ended with the highest number in the country’s history – 4,600 – double that of 2021. At the current rate, Ecuador could reach a rate of 40 homicides by the end of this year reach per 100,000 population, which would make it one of the most violent countries in the world.
In Guayaquil, the second largest city in the country, the climate is unbearable. Ashly Silva is a mother of four children who were forced to flee their home on Isla Trinitaria south of Guayaquil where hundreds of shootings and deaths have occurred. She works as a cleaner after her husband was killed by drug trafficking networks a year ago. All she asks is a presidential candidate who “has the guts to stand up to drug dealers.” Although she doesn’t endorse any of them, she believes that Correísmo lives in the past and that the country must look to the future with one priority: put an end to the killings.
In a very short time, whoever is elected President will have to face this scenario of violence and insecurity among citizens. Sunday’s elections do not mark the start of a new legislative session: the next president will be appointed to complete Lasso’s mandate, giving them just 18 months in power, during which Ecuadorians are demanding the return of a country they no longer recognize. “We’ve never seen anything like it. The dismemberments, the hanging bodies…” says taxi driver Luis Noboa. “We didn’t even know this mutual death thing existed!”
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