Published on December 23, 2023 at 12:24 am.
An event that confirms a strong trend in Montreal. Forecast.
Winter El Niño
Part of Quebec should celebrate Christmas on the lawn this year. In the south of the province, and particularly in Montreal, this event is becoming more and more common. In Montreal, there is about a two in three chance that there will be at least two centimeters of snow on the ground early on the morning of December 25th. This will not be the case this year. However, no white carpet is rarer on New Year's Day. According to the models, temperatures will not favor solid precipitation over the next fortnight. Experts see the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, which appears to be slowing the onset of winter conditions in Quebec.
“El Niño is playing a role: winter is still slowly setting in,” says meteorologist Réjean Ouimet. The proof: the rather dreary facility, as there is no snow there. The result will be the famous Green Christmas for many regions of Quebec. A phenomenon that has occurred more frequently in recent years. If we know a green Christmas, we know New Year's Day a little less.
Lawn parties
Before 2000, two cases of no snow on Christmas and New Year were reported: 1958 and 1980. We must face the facts: the phenomenon is a rarity. However, after 2000, this scenario began to occur more frequently in Montreal due to Quebec's changing climate. Let's remember last year: there was snow on the ground on December 25, 2022, but not on January 1, 2023. However, in 2003, 2015 and 2019 there was no white carpet on both holidays. Winter usually manages to regain its rights during the holidays despite a green Christmas.
“We rightly have the impression that late winter finally signals the end of the year,” continues Réjean Ouimet. Just in time for “Bye Bye”. Over time, January 1st in Montreal has been half as likely to have no snow on the ground as at Christmas.
Coincidence or coincidence?
El Niño appeared to play an important role in mild years over the past twenty years. As in the winter of 2023-2024, the phenomenon could be the cause of the holiday season spent on the lawn. However, in the three cases in which the two festivals took place without snow on the ground, winter took its revenge afterwards.
“The three years since 2000, when green dominated the two festivals, were years in which we observed the El Niño phenomenon,” explains Réjean Ouimet. Back then the intensity was low. Which left room for other influences. If El Niño is strong this year, its range could be similar to that of a weaker El Niño. Whether coincidence or not, these holidays risk giving us that rare opportunity for a green Christmas and New Year, at least in southern Quebec.
In collaboration with meteorologists Kevin Cloutier and Réjean Ouimet.