Over the years and regular IPCC reports, the scientific evidence for observed changes in extreme events such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, drought and tropical cyclones and their attribution to human influence has solidified. Photo: UN.
According to the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the El Niño phenomenon has returned in the Pacific. Scientists assume that there will be extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or tropical cyclones.
El Niño occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and is characterized by surface warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific. After three years of La Niña, El Niño has returned. This event is expected to be strong and raise sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific by at least 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This can have various consequences, such as hurricanes in the Pacific islands, heavy rains on the South American coast or droughts in Australia.
South American countries are preparing for El Niño as rainfall increases and the risk of flooding increases. Peru has set aside $1,060 million to deal with the aftermath and declared a state of emergency in 18 of the country’s 25 regions due to possible rainfall.
In contrast, the impact of the Central Pacific is very different. In India or Australia, El Niño increases the risk of drought, while in other regions like the Philippines, it triggers cyclone warnings. During the event, the southern United States will be cooler and wetter, but the west and Canada will be hotter and drier.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that the combination of El Niño and the global climate crisis would mean that the period 2023–2027 would be the hottest on Earth on record.
The climate crisis does not seem to change El Niño and La Niña per se, but it does change the rise in global ocean temperatures. Although many scientists claim that this would not interfere with their normal cycles and periodicity, it appears to amplify all effects and could have devastating effects around the world.
(With agency information)