It is no pleasure that Jean-François Blanchet is proposing to eliminate two constituencies in Montreal and Gaspésie. The director general of Quebec elections (DGEQ) insists his duties require him to enforce the law.
With the recent proposal to dissolve Anjou-Louis-Riel and merge Gaspé and Bonaventure, the electoral representation commission, of which he is chairman, has only done its duty, explains Blanchet in an interview.
Our goal is to ensure that every voter is represented as fairly as possible.
The law is clear: barring exceptions, all electoral districts in Quebec should have equal weight, that is, the number of voters in each county should be within plus or minus 25% of the average.
Under these circumstances, the commissioners had no choice but to propose a demarcation that would restore justice, explains the DGEQ.
The preparation of the preliminary report presented to the National Assembly last week was not easy, admits Mr Blanchet. The 173-page document proposes changing the boundaries of 55 of Quebec’s 125 ridings. Two new counties would be created, in the Laurentians and Center-du-Québec.
If these changes restored some balance, they would certainly cause discontent in certain regions, Blanchet admits. But there is no perfect solution, he argues philosophically.
Predictable resistance
Since the map was last revised in 2017, the electorate population has changed significantly, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, necessitating a reassessment of the political weight of each region.
In Montreal, for example, the border changes were made necessary by a significant demographic change, explains Mr. Blanchet, alluding to the exodus of many households and a significant influx of non-permanent residents who have no right to vote.
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The Quebec Electoral Representation Commission is a separate body from the Office of the Director-General of Elections. Mr Blanchet still chairs the meeting.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Bruno Giguère
In eastern Quebec, a significant decline in the voting population also led the commission to recommend the elimination of a constituency.
The news was poorly received by local elected officials, who complained in particular that the Gaspé Peninsula and Bas-Saint-Laurent counties would be too large in the future.
But for Mr. Blanchet, such a reaction is completely normal. We expected it, he said. In that sense it would have been so [plus] Simply do nothing, argues the DGEQ.
Mr. Blanchet says he understands the concerns of the elected officials concerned. However, he points out that eleven other constituencies would already be larger than Gaspé-Bonaventure and Matane-Matapédia (whose boundaries would also be reorganized) if the Commission’s proposal were implemented in its current form.
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Critics will be able to express themselves during the public hearings, which will take place from October 10 to November 15 and will then lead to a revised report, recalls Mr Blanchet.
Does the Commission have alternative scenarios at the bank if the pressure becomes too great? There are always changes between the preliminary report and the revised report, replies the person primarily affected.
A new map for the end of 2024
In Quebec, the Legault government has already publicly expressed its dissatisfaction with the commission’s preliminary report.
But the CAQ will have very little influence over the rest of the process: Unless it wants to change the law, the commission will have the final say on the next electoral map, which is due to come into force in the 2026 election.
At best, parliamentarians can delay the moment when the Commission presents them with its demarcation proposal, as was the case in 2007 under the minority government of Jean Charest.
However, Mr. Blanchet reiterates that he hopes to be summoned by the National Assembly within a reasonable time.
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The law required the commission to submit a delimitation proposal to the National Assembly within 12 months of the October 3, 2022 elections. The said proposal was finally submitted to the elected officials on September 19, 2023.
Photo: Radio-Canada / Bruno Giguère
To ensure better electoral fairness, some observers – such as former Gatineau mayor Maxime Pedneaud-Jobin and Professor Marc André Bodet of the University of Laval – believe that it would be preferable to change the electoral law to increase the number of voters increase constituencies, the maximum number of which is set at 125.
However, Prime Minister Legault strongly rejected that idea last week, arguing that Quebec already has as many MPs as Ontario despite having half the population.
In any case, this would not change inequality between regions, argues Mr Blanchet. Therefore, he wants to move forward with the current proposal, even if that means changing it based on the comments that will be heard during the public hearings.
“We are aiming for a new electoral map by the end of 2024,” says Mr Blanchet. If everything goes well, he says.
Completing such a process in just two years would be an achievement. 36 months passed between the elections in April 2014 and the publication of the current electoral map in the official gazette in March 2017. The previous revision spanned 55 months and spanned two legislative sessions, from March 2007 to October 2011.