Macron is expected to win 58.5% of the vote, making him the first French leader to be re-elected in 20 years, according to an analysis of election data by pollsters Ipsos & Sopra Steria, conducted for broadcasters France Televisions and Radio. But turnout was on track to be the lowest for a presidential runoff since 2002, according to government data released late afternoon local time. Ipsos & Sopra Steria forecast an abstention rate of 28.2% for the second round vote, also the highest since 2002.
French pollsters typically release forecasts at 8 p.m. local time, when polling stations in major cities close, and a few hours before the French interior ministry releases the official results. These predictions, based on data from polling stations that close at 7 p.m. in the rest of the country, are typically used by candidates and French media to pick a winner.
Although Macron’s address to voters of a globalized, business-liberal France at the helm of a muscular European Union won against Le Pen’s vision of radical inward change, the 41.5% of people who voted for her brought the French far right closer to the presidency than ever before.
Macron’s supporters, gathered on the Champs de Mars in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower in central Paris, erupted in tremendous cheers when the news was announced.
Within half an hour, Le Pen was delivering a concessionary speech to her supporters, who had gathered nearby in a pavilion in the Bois de Boulogne, west of Paris.
“A great wind of freedom could have blown over our country, but the ballot box decided otherwise,” said Le Pen.
Still, Le Pen acknowledged that the far right had never done so well in a presidential election. She called the result “historic” and a “radiant victory” that put her National Rally political party “in an excellent position” for June’s general election.
“The game isn’t quite over yet,” she said.
Macron and Le Pen advanced to the runoff after finishing first and second, respectively, among 12 candidates who ran in the first round on April 10. They spent the next two weeks criss-crossing the country courting those who didn’t vote for them in the first round.
The second-round lineup was a repeat of the 2017 presidential election, when Macron — then a political newcomer — defeated Le Pen by nearly two votes to one. This time, however, Macron has had a mixed record on domestic issues, such as his handling of the Yellow Vests protests and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The rematch between Macron and Le Pen should be closer than the first match five years ago. A poll released after the first-round vote showed that this runoff could be anywhere from 51% to 49%. When the campaign ended on Friday, the two candidates were about 10 points apart in most polls.
Le Pen’s ability to attract new voters since 2017 is the latest indication that the French public is turning to extremist politicians to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo. In the first round, candidates from the extreme left and extreme right accounted for more than 57% of the votes cast, while 26.3% of registered voters stayed home – resulting in the lowest turnout in 20 years.
Le Pen’s campaign sought to capitalize on public anger at a drop in the cost of living by campaigning hard to help people cope with inflation and soaring energy prices – a top concern for French voters – rather than focusing on the anti -Leave Islamists. Anti-immigrant and Eurosceptic positions that dominated their first two attempts to win the presidency in 2017 and 2012.
She presented herself as a more mainstream and less radical candidate, although much of her manifesto has remained the same as it was five years ago. “Stopping uncontrolled immigration” and “eradicating Islamist ideologies” were the two priorities of her manifesto, and analysts said many of her EU policies had put France at odds with the bloc.
Although Le Pen had abandoned some of her most controversial policy proposals, such as leaving the European Union and the euro, her views on immigration and her position on Islam in France – she wants to make it illegal for women to wear headscarves in public – has changed not changed.
“I think the headscarf is a uniform imposed by the Islamists,” she said during the only presidential debate on Wednesday. “I think that the vast majority of women who wear one really can’t help it, even if they don’t dare to say so.”
But Vladimir Putin was perhaps their greatest political burden. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Le Pen was a vocal supporter of the Russian president, even visiting him during her 2017 election campaign. Her party also took out a loan from a Russian-Czech bank a few years ago, which she is still repaying.
Although she has since condemned the invasion of Moscow, Macron attacked Le Pen during the debate for her previous positions. He argued that she could not be trusted to represent France in dealings with the Kremlin.
“You talk to your banker when you talk to Russia. That’s the problem,” Macron said during the debate. “You cannot adequately defend France’s interests on this issue because your interests are linked to people close to Russian power.”
Le Pen said her party was being forced to look abroad for funding because no French bank would approve the loan application, but the defense appeared to have failed.
CNN’s Simon Bouvier, Xiaofei Xu, Camille Knight and Elias Lemercier contributed to this report