Advertising for the candidates Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, in the city of El Carmen, Manabí province.José Jácome (EFE)
In Ecuador, the second round of elections ends after President Guillermo Lasso activated a constitutional mechanism called “Cross Death”, an unprecedented process that sent all deputies to their homes six months ago, bringing forward the elections originally scheduled for 2025. We remember back in the Period of the late 90s and early 2000s, when three presidents were removed from office one after the other in controversial situations and political instability was the order of the day. However, the early termination of the mandate in this case is clearly anchored in a constitutional procedure.
The election campaign was unusual, not only because we will elect a government that will only take office for the remaining term for which Lasso was originally elected in 2021, but above all because of an unprecedented crime wave. This wave led to the tragedy of an assassinated candidate, an unprecedented event in Ecuador. Violent deaths have quadrupled, from about 6 per 100,000 residents in 2020 to more than 25 this year. Crimes that were once rare in our country, such as kidnapping or extortion (known as “vaccines” in Latin America), are unfortunately now widespread, regardless of the neighborhood or socioeconomic level. They kidnap and vaccinate in popular neighborhoods and small businesses as well as luxury neighborhoods and large corporations.
Added to this is a financial crisis that has weakened the sustainability of public finances, leaving balance sheets reminiscent of the economic consequences of the Covid pandemic a few years ago. This poses a real challenge for the next president, who will have to look for external sources of funding, which will undoubtedly require necessary but certainly unpopular decisions. However, for someone contemplating a re-election campaign in less than a year, this is highly unlikely as candidate registration for the 2025 elections will occur in the middle of next year.
So far, on the economic issue, both candidates talk about the use of meager international reserves of less than 6% of GDP, and in the case of the candidate Luisa González, she even presents this action as a cure for all ills, when the reality is that his irresponsible Although the deployment only buys a short amount of time, it closes many doors that the country needs to open for financing.
What stands out in this second round is that, despite the serious situation facing the country, including a severe migration crisis with hundreds of thousands of Ecuadorians fleeing violence and a lack of opportunities, the campaigns have focused on marketing and entertainment and have focused on the aggressiveness of Twitter and the attractiveness of Tik Tok. Daniel Noboa has managed to make posters with his photo viral, depicting him in life size, which voters love to joke about and take photos with him. Luisa González has tried to make viral the use of sunglasses, which have become the “cool” symbol of her campaign since the first round. However, important questions remain without clear answers and for those of us who are watching the current situation with concern, there are more doubts than certainties.
The duality of the struggle between 21st century socialism and those of us who live far from authoritarianism and want to defend democracy used to be the central theme that dominated the country’s elections. Today, in this second round, this has faded into the background. Even the candidate of 21st Century Socialism, González, has tried to distance herself from the symbols and messages that represent this trend in Ecuador, since she already has her tough voice, and she has tried to limit the electoral cap that this gives her Trend imposed to raise They changed their clothing by using neutral colors and tried to adopt a discourse of national unity that they have always faced politically. On the other hand, Daniel Noboa has strategically avoided any kind of polarization, although the first antagonist of the SSXXI was his father Álvaro, who sought the presidency five times between 1998 and 2013 and whose well-known campaign jingle was adopted by his son in 2023.
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In this second round, candidates have chosen to avoid mistakes and debates rather than focus on highlighting their proposals and successes. The only certainty, however, is that the new government will face a serious crisis in the face of high expectations from a citizenry tired of criminal and political violence and longing for a future of peace and opportunity in their own country. The real solution to these challenges lies in strong leadership that can unite the nation around common goals and is not afraid to make urgent decisions to positively change the country’s course.
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