- Italy will elect a new, streamlined parliament on September 25th
- Nationalist Giorgia Meloni predicted to lead the polls
- Pollsters say a last-minute surprise isn’t impossible
- Economic and diplomatic problems await the next prime minister
ROME, September 22 (Portal) – Italy’s general election on Sunday could make history and give the country its first female prime minister at the head of its most right-wing government since World War II.
Giorgia Meloni’s Nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI) garnered barely 4% of the vote in 2018, but the party is expected to get around 25% this time, and an alliance of conservative partners will lead to a clear parliamentary majority.
“There’s this idea in Italy that we’ve all tried, so let’s try it now,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political risk consultancy Teneo.
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If the stubborn Meloni succeeds, she will face a series of daunting challenges, including rising energy costs, a stifling mountain of debt, a possible recession and an increasingly dangerous conflict in Ukraine.
The 45-year-old from Rome, who promises a crackdown on immigration and a tax cut, will also have big shoes to fill.
Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the widely respected former head of the European Central Bank, was seen as a reassuring figure by international investors but resigned in July following a mutiny within his unity government.
Unlike all other major party leaders, Meloni refused to join Draghi’s coalition, instead seeing her popularity skyrocket in the opposition pews, where she skillfully denounced the government’s painful measures to deal with the COVID-19 crisis.
“Meloni is a great communicator, but she has significant economic constraints and doesn’t have a lot of experience, so she probably won’t enjoy a long honeymoon,” Piccoli said.
CLOSER COMPETITION?
Meloni could also end up with a much smaller majority than analysts predicted when an electoral lockdown went into effect on Sept. 9, or even fall just short, paving the way for the kind of political instability that regularly plagues Italy.
Ten days ago, the right-wing bloc, which includes Matteo Salvini’s Liga and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, won around 45 percent of the vote – a result that should give them more than 60 percent of all parliamentary seats.
But since then there has been widespread speculation that Salvini’s league, which is under constant attack for its historically close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has fallen behind while the left-leaning 5-Star Movement has risen.
Leader of the Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni kisses during the centre-right coalition’s final campaign rally in Piazza del Popolo ahead of the September 25 general election in Rome, Italy September 22, 2022. Portal/Yara Nardi
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Adding to the uncertainty, voters will elect a slimmed-down parliament, with seats in the lower house being reduced from 630 to 400, while the senate will increase from 315 to 200 seats. This complicates efforts to predict the outcome.
“One effect of reducing the number of Senate seats is that, in percentage terms, it takes relatively little to go from a large majority to a greatly reduced majority,” said Lorenzo Pregliasco, YouTrend’s head of polling.
NEO-FASCIST ROOTS
The election campaign was waged in the shadow of a muggy summer, with few signs of major voter interest and no televised debates between the various party leaders.
The right-wing bloc has rolled out old promises to cut taxes, lower the retirement age and block migrants from reaching Italy by boat from North Africa, with Meloni proposing a sea blockade to prevent refugee-seekers from setting sail.
Opponents say such a move would be illegal and unworkable.
The 5-Star has vowed to secure welfare benefits for the poor – a message that has resonated in the less affluent South, which leaders across the political spectrum have criss-crossed in recent days to win over an army of undecided voters to win.
The main centre-left Democratic Party has repeatedly warned that the election of Meloni is dangerous due to the FdI’s neo-fascist origins and its links to Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban, who has been accused by the European Union of abusing the rule of law.
Meloni has downplayed her own far-right past, saying her group is a mainstream force similar to the British Conservative Party and strongly supports Ukraine in its war with Russia.
But during the election campaign she was careful not to alienate core supporters linked to the far right.
“I dream of a nation where people who for many years had to bow their heads and pretend they had other ideas to avoid being ostracized can now say what they think,” she said earlier this week at a rally.
Voting runs from 7am to 11pm (0500-2100 GMT) on Sunday, with full results expected by Monday morning.
Even if the result is clear, the next government is unlikely to take office before the end of October, and the new parliament will not meet until October 13th.
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Reporting by Crispian Balmer Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky
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