FILE PHOTO: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shakes hands with Syria’s President Bashar alAssad before the Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia May 19, 2023. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy Saudi Royal Court/Handout via Portal
Portal Once branded a pariah, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took center stage as master of ceremonies last week as Arab countries reinstated Syria into the Arab League, signaling Washington that it’s calling the shots in the region.
His effusive greeting of President Bashar alAssad at the Arab summit with kisses on the cheeks and a warm hug defied US disapproval of Syria’s return to the League and capped a geopolitical realitiesdriven reversal in the prince’s fortunes.
The prince, known as MbS, is trying to reestablish Saudi Arabia as a regional power by capitalizing on his place at the helm of an energy giant in an oildependent world torn by war in Ukraine.
Shunned by Western countries after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by a Saudi force in 2018, the prince has now emerged as a player Washington cannot ignore or deny, but must deal with on a transactional basis.
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MbS is skeptical of US pledges on Saudi Arabia’s security and tired of the scolding tone. He is building ties with other world powers and, ignoring Washington’s dismay, rebuilding his ties with their common enemies.
His joyful selfconfidence on the world stage was not only reflected in his greeting to Assad. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the meeting in Jeddah and MbS offered to mediate between Kiev and oil producer Moscow.
For security reasons, Saudi Arabia is still militarily dependent on the United States, which saved the country from a possible invasion of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1990, monitors Iranian military activities in the Gulf and supplies Riyadh with most of its weapons.
However, with Washington seemingly less involved in the Middle East and less receptive to Riyadh’s fears, MbS pursues its own regional policies with less obvious regard for the views of its most powerful ally.
“This is a strong signal to America that we are reshaping and reshaping our relationship without you,” Gulf Research Center President Abdulaziz alSager said of the summit.
“On the other hand, he’s not getting what he wants,” Sager added, saying Saudi Arabia’s understanding with regional enemies rested on Riyadh’s approach to regional security.
diplomatic offensive
MbS’s position has strengthened over the past year as Western economies turned to Saudi Arabia to help tame an oil market destabilized by the war in Ukraine. This was an opportunity for MbS to launch a diplomatic offensive that included appearances at highlevel summits.
These efforts were aided when Washington declared MbS immune from prosecution for Khashoggi’s murder, even though he was directly implicated by US intelligence.
A visit by US President Joe Biden last July had already shown the return of Riyadh’s influence: the American leader returned emptyhanded as the prince enjoyed a public demonstration of US commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security.
Saudi Arabia’s shift away from dependence on the United States was evident when China brokered a deal between Riyadh and its regional nemesis Iran this year after years of animosity.
The deal was not struck from a position of Saudi strength: Iran’s allies emerged stronger than the kingdom’s in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and held most of Yemen’s settled territory.
Still, it showed Riyadh was able to limit its losses and work with US rivals and enemies to bolster its regional interests, such as by cooling off the war in Yemen, where Saudi forces have been deadlocked since 2015.
Meanwhile, the prince has improved ties with Turkey and ended the boycott of Qatar, a neighboring country he considered invading in 2017, according to diplomats and Doha officials.
“In the last three years, the hatchet has been buried and relations restored,” Saudi columnist Abdulrahman AlRashed told Asharq AlAwsat newspaper.
transaction relationship
A Gulf official said the new, more direct transactional relationship with the United States had replaced the old model of oil and defense as Riyadh faced a more unstable security umbrella after the 2011 Arab uprisings.
A senior State Department official said it was “an important eightdecade relationship that spans generations, between governments in our own country and between leaders in Saudi Arabia.”
“We have diverse interests when it comes to our relationship with Saudi Arabia… Our policies and engagement will be aimed at ensuring that our relationship remains strong and capable of meeting our shared challenges ahead.”
Riyadh assumed that Washington had abandoned old allies during the uprisings and may have abandoned the Al Saud dynasty as well. At the same time, he believed that the US push for a nuclear deal with Tehran had prompted Washington to ignore the increasing activity of Iranian proxies in the region, which Riyadh viewed as a threat.
This impression got stronger. A Saudi source close to the government’s inner circle cited what he saw as lax application of sanctions on Iran and a reduction in Syria, where a small US contingent has denied Iranian allies territory.
“I think the countries in the region will therefore do what is best for them,” he said.
Meanwhile, Riyadh is angered that the US withdrew its support for Saudi operations in Yemen after Washington repeatedly urged the kingdom to take responsibility for its own security.
With no direct American intervention or support for its own military efforts, Riyadh was left with no choice but to strike a deal with Iran, even if it upset Washington, the source said.
“This is a consequence of the US actions,” he added.
Each side has a list of demands that the other does not want to meet, the Gulf official said.
However, both sides may have little choice but to let go of their grudges.
While the kingdom sees the US security umbrella as weakened, it still sees it as vital to Saudi Arabia’s defense. Meanwhile, western countries recalled that Riyadh’s influence in a volatile oil market requires them to abandon their scruples and come to terms with their de facto ruler and future king.