Climate-damaging emissions produced in Gaza during the first two months of the war were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world's most climate-sensitive countries, new research shows.
The vast majority (over 99%) of the estimated 281,000 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2 equivalent) produced in the first 60 days after the October 7 Hamas attack can be attributed to Israel's air strikes and ground invasion of the Gaza Strip unique analysis by researchers in the UK and US.
According to the study, which is based on only a handful of carbon-intensive activities and is therefore likely to be significantly underestimated, the climate cost of the first 60 days of Israel's military response was equivalent to burning at least 150,000 tons of coal.
The analysis, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, includes CO2 from aircraft missions, tanks and fuel from other vehicles, as well as emissions from the manufacture and explosion of bombs, artillery and rockets. It does not include other gases that warm the planet, such as methane. Almost half of all CO2 emissions were due to US cargo planes transporting military supplies to Israel.
Hamas rockets fired at Israel during the same period produced about 713 tons of CO2, the equivalent of about 300 tons of coal – underscoring the asymmetry of the two sides' war machinery.
Fire and smoke erupt after the Israeli bombardment in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on December 14, 2023. Photo: Mahmoud Hams/AFP/Getty ImagesThe data, shared exclusively with the Guardian, provides the first, albeit conservative, estimate of the carbon cost of the current conflict in Gaza, which is causing unprecedented human suffering, infrastructure damage and environmental disaster.
This comes amid growing calls for greater accountability for military greenhouse gas emissions, which play an outsized role in the climate crisis but are largely shrouded in secrecy and unaccountable in annual UN climate negotiations.
“This study is just a snapshot of the larger military footprint of the war… a partial picture of the massive carbon emissions and other toxic pollutants that will persist long after the fighting has ended,” said Benjamin Neimark, a lecturer at Queen Mary. University of London (QMUL) and co-author of the study published on Tuesday in the Social Science Research Network.
Graphic showing carbon emissions caused by the Israel-Gaza war
Previous studies suggest that the actual carbon footprint could be five to eight times higher – if emissions from the entire war supply chain were included.
“The military’s ecological exceptionalism allows it to pollute with impunity, as if the carbon emissions from its tanks and fighter jets didn’t count. That has to stop. To tackle the climate crisis, we need accountability,” added Neimark, who worked with researchers at the University of Lancaster and the Climate and Community Project (CCP), a US-based climate policy think tank.
Israel's unprecedented bombing of the Gaza Strip since Hamas killed up to 1,200 Israelis has resulted in widespread death and destruction. According to the Gaza Health Authority, nearly 23,000 Palestinians – mostly women and children – were killed, with thousands more believed to be buried dead under the rubble. About 85% of the population has been forcibly displaced and is suffering life-threatening food and water shortages, according to UN agencies. More than 100 Israeli hostages remain trapped in Gaza and hundreds of Israeli soldiers have been killed.
In addition to the immediate suffering, the conflict is exacerbating the global climate emergency, which goes far beyond the CO2 emissions of bombs and airplanes.
graphic
The new study calculates that the carbon costs of rebuilding Gaza's 100,000 damaged buildings using modern construction techniques will generate at least 30 million tons of warming gases. This is equivalent to New Zealand's annual CO2 emissions and is higher than 135 other countries and territories, including Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Uruguay.
David Boyd, the UN special rapporteur on human rights and the environment, said: “This research helps us understand the immense scale of military emissions – from preparation for war to warfare to post-war reconstruction.” Armed conflict brings humanity even closer to the brink of climate catastrophe and are an idiotic way to spend our shrinking carbon budget.”
Climate impacts such as sea level rise, drought and extreme heat were already threatening water supplies and food security in Palestine. The environmental situation in Gaza is currently dire, with much of its farmland, energy and water infrastructure destroyed or polluted, likely to have devastating health impacts for decades to come, experts warn. Between 36% and 45% of Gaza's buildings – homes, schools, mosques, hospitals, shops – have been destroyed or damaged so far, and construction is a major contributor to global warming.
Palestinians next to the rubble of a building destroyed by Israeli attacks in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, January 5. Photo: Anadolu/Getty Images“The catastrophic airstrike on Gaza will not abate if there is a ceasefire,” said Zena Agha, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka, the Palestinian Policy Network, who writes about the climate crisis and the Israeli occupation. “Military waste will continue to live in the soil, on the earth, in the sea and in the bodies of Palestinians living in Gaza – just as in other post-war contexts such as Iraq.”
Overall, the climate consequences of war and occupation are hardly known. Thanks in large part to U.S. pressure, reporting of military emissions is voluntary, and only four countries submit some incomplete data to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which organizes annual climate negotiations.
Even without comprehensive data, a recent study found that the military produces nearly 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions annually — more than the aviation and shipping industries combined. This makes the military's global carbon footprint – even without taking into account conflict-related emissions peaks – the fourth largest after the USA, China and India.
At Cop28 in Dubai last month, the unfolding humanitarian and environmental catastrophe in Gaza and Ukraine brought war, security and the climate crisis to the agenda, but did not result in meaningful steps to increase the transparency and accountability of the armed forces or military industry.
The Israeli delegation particularly promoted its emerging climate technology industry in areas such as carbon capture and storage, water harvesting and plant-based meat alternatives. “Israel’s greatest contribution to the climate crisis is its solutions,” said Gideon Behar, Special Envoy for Climate Change and Sustainability.
Ran Peleg, Israel's director of Middle East economic relations, told the Guardian that the issue of calculating greenhouse gas emissions from current or previous IDF operations had not been discussed. “This is actually the first time this issue has been raised and I'm not aware that there is any way to count things like this.”
Hadeel Ikhmais, head of the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority's climate change office, said: “We are trying to do our part in the climate crisis, but even before the war in Gaza, it was difficult to adapt and mitigate when we do not have access to water or land or any technologies without Israel’s permission.”
Neither the Israeli government nor the Palestinian authorities appear to have ever reported figures on military emissions to the UNFCCC.
Using the defense budget as a proxy, the new study estimates that Israel's annual military carbon footprint – excluding conflicts – was nearly 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019. This is roughly equivalent to the CO2 emissions of the entire nation of Cyprus and 55% more emissions than the entirety of Palestine.
On October 13, 2023, Israeli Army Merkava battle tanks are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. Photo: Jack Guez/AFP/Getty ImagesAccording to the researchers, a comparable calculation of military emissions was not possible for Palestine due to Hamas's ad hoc offensive capabilities.
But the situation between Israel and Palestine was unique even before October 7th. In the occupied Gaza Strip, most Palestinians were already facing significant food, water and energy insecurity due to the Israeli occupation, the blockade, population density and the worsening climate crisis. Israelis have long lived under the threat of rocket fire.
To understand some of the climate impacts of this militarized environment, researchers calculated the carbon footprint of war-related concrete infrastructure – walls and tunnels – built by Hamas and Israel since 2007.
The construction of the Gaza Metro – the 500km underground network of tunnels used to transport and hide everything from basic supplies to weapons, Hamas fighters and hostages – produced an estimated 176,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, more than the island nation of Tonga emits annually, according to the study.
Construction of Israel's Iron Wall, which runs 40 miles along most of the Gaza border and is equipped with surveillance cameras, underground sensors, barbed wire, a 20-foot-tall metal fence and large concrete barriers, produced nearly 274,000 tons of CO2. This is almost equivalent to the entire emissions of the Central African Republic in 2022, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
The role of the USA
The U.S. plays an outsized role in the military's carbon emissions — and provides Israel with billions of dollars in military aid, weapons and other equipment that it deploys in Gaza and the West Bank.
As of December 4, at least 200 American cargo flights were reported to have delivered 10,000 tons of military equipment to Israel. The study found that the flights wasted around 50 million liters of aviation fuel and spewed an estimated 133,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – more than the entire island of Grenada last year.
“The U.S. role in the destruction of people and the environment in Gaza cannot be overstated,” said co-author Patrick Bigger, research director at the think tank CCP.
An Israeli soldier carries a heavy grenade near a main battle tank stationed at a position along the Gaza Strip border and southern Israel on Dec. 31, 2023. Photo: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty ImagesAnd not just in Gaza. According to a separate study by Neta Crawford, author of “The Pentagon, Climate Change and War,” the U.S. military reported producing an estimated 48 million tons of CO2 in 2022. This baseline military carbon footprint, which excludes emissions from attacks on the Islamic State's oil infrastructure in 2022, was higher than the annual emissions of 150 individual countries and territories, including Norway, Ireland and Azerbaijan.
According to Crawford, about 20% of the U.S. military's annual operational emissions go toward protecting fossil fuel interests in the Gulf region – a climate change hotspot that is warming twice as fast as the rest of the inhabited world. Nevertheless, the US – like other NATO countries – is primarily focused on the climate crisis as a national security risk rather than on its contribution to it.
“Quite simply, we are preparing for the wrong risks by putting too many of our eggs in the military basket, when in reality we are facing a much worse emergency. Shifting military resources to the [energy] “The transition is an easy fruit to achieve,” said Crawford, Montague Burton Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford.
Reacting to the carbon analysis, Lior Haiat, a spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said: “Israel did not want this war. It was imposed on us by the terrorist organization Hamas, which killed, murdered, executed hundreds of people and kidnapped over 240 people, including children, women and the elderly.
“Among all the problems facing the State of Palestine in the coming decades, climate change is the most immediate and certain – and this is compounded by the occupation and war on Gaza since October 7,” said Ikhmais, the Palestinian Climate Director. “The carbon emissions of military attacks contradict the goal of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement… It is crucial to recognize the environmental impact of war.”