After years of climate negotiations focusing primarily on greenhouse gases in general, the axis of the debate has shifted significantly to the Dubai summit, COP28. Now the main source of these emissions is at the center of the discussion: fossil fuels. This is partly a consequence of the fact that this climate conference paradoxically took place in a petroleum state like the United Arab Emirates. However, this is mainly because emissions from the oil, gas and coal sectors continue to rise every year. Furthermore, the plans of companies and producing countries are steering humanity toward global warming beyond safe levels established by science, while the impacts of this crisis are increasing. A report released early Tuesday warns that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted by the fossil sector will rise 1.1% in 2023 compared to last year, a new historical record that helps further focus the spotlight on fuels .
The report was prepared by the Global Carbon Project, a group of dozens of international scientists from more than 90 institutions that has been studying radiographically the evolution of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, since 2006. During this time, emissions from the fossil fuel sector – oil, gas, coal – have increased almost continuously (only two notable declines occurred in the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic). But the increase forecast for this year has exceeded pre-Covid levels (they are already 1.4% higher than in 2019).
When analyzing the data by fuel, coal ranks first in terms of total gases emitted. According to these experts, carbon dioxide emissions from this fuel will increase by 1.1% in 2023. This is followed by crude oil, which will emit 1.5% more CO₂ this year than in 2022. The third guest in this story is natural gas, whose emissions will increase by 0.5%. To complete the picture we must consider the cement sector, which will also see an increase of 0.8%.
Many nations are pushing for a clear message from COP28 that calls for phasing out or gradually reducing the use of these fossil fuels. However, this position is not supported by all countries represented in Dubai, which will complicate negotiations until December 12, when the conference should theoretically end.
By country
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Another way to see the evolution of CO₂ is by country. China is by far the country that emits the most emissions of this gas: in 2022, it caused 30.7% of the world’s total emissions. This was followed by the United States (13.6%), India (7.6%), the European Union (7.4%), Russia (4.4%) and Japan (2.8%).
What happens to this bloc of large emitters determines the global pace of carbon dioxide growth and decline. Analysts at the Global Carbon Project predict that emissions in the US and EU will fall by 3% and 7.4%, respectively, in 2023. However, India and China’s numbers will also rise by 8.2% and 4% respectively. In the rest of the world’s nations they will fall by 0.4%.
To complete the picture, it is necessary to take into account the carbon dioxide generated by land use changes, particularly related to deforestation, which is expected to fall by around 5.1% compared to 2022 levels. However, this decline is offset by the increase in fossil fuels.
Taking into account the forecasts made in this report for the fossil sector (which will emit 36.8 gigatons of CO₂ this year, the unit used for greenhouse gases) and for those related to land use change (4.1 gigatons) this year completed with a total of 40.9 gigatons, which is 0.5% more than in 2022. The good news is that the world is at a similar plateau to the growth in total CO₂ emissions over the last decade ( 2013-2022) has slowed down significantly. with an average growth of 0.14% per year, much lower than the 2.1% rate of the previous decade (2003-2012). The bad news is that it’s not enough to grow little or not at all. It needs to be lowered drastically and quickly.
Peak emissions
Some studies suggest that greenhouse gas emissions will generally reach their historic peak by 2023. Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, acknowledges that CO₂ emitted by human activities may actually stop growing this year or the next two or three years. But he warns: “If we reach the peak, I think we will stay there for years, rather than the peak and the immediate reduction that is required.” “Global decarbonization requires rapid energy system transformation, which will result in another “The increase in fossil emissions is apparently not happening to a sufficient extent.”
Current emissions levels, maintained over time, are “absolutely dangerous and incompatible with stabilizing the climate at a fixed temperature.” Warming is currently 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. And if they are not reduced quickly, we face warming of more than three degrees, warns Canadell. “The rise in global warming can only be stopped the day we have net zero emissions,” he adds. But at this moment the planet will remain at the temperature it reached because the emitted gases, when they enter the atmosphere, will remain there for decades.
“The effects of climate change are visible all around us, but reductions in carbon emissions from fossil fuels remain painfully slow,” says Pierre Friedlingstein, a researcher at the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and leader of this study.
Looking to the immediate future, Friedlingstein believes that “it now seems inevitable that we exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.” “The leaders attending COP28 must commit to rapid reductions in emissions agree to fossil fuels to maintain the 2 degree target,” this researcher adds. The Paris Climate Agreement set the goal that temperature rise should not exceed 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century and even try to keep it below 1.5.
In the last major review by the IPCC, the expert group that regularly lays the foundations of scientific findings on climate change, it was assumed that the 1.5 limit would be consistently exceeded over the next two decades due to the gases already emitted. The study presented this Tuesday assumes that at current emissions levels “there is a 50 percent chance that global warming will permanently exceed 1.5 degrees in about seven years.”
Sinking and carbon capture
Of all the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by human activities, 47% remains concentrated in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, causing the planet to overheat. The Global Carbon Project analysis estimates that the year 2023 will end with a CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere of 419.3 parts per million, which is 51% higher than at pre-industrial levels, the moment before humanity began using massive fossil fuels to burn.
The remaining 53% of human-related carbon dioxide is absorbed almost equally by vegetation and the ocean, which is already leading to problems such as increasing ocean acidification. As the climate crisis becomes more evident and damaging, voices supporting airborne CO₂ capture technologies are increasing. However, the report finds that current technology-based carbon dioxide removal levels (i.e. without reforestation) are about 0.01 million tonnes of CO₂, more than a million times less than current emissions from the fossil sector.
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