Sultan al-Jaber, the Emirati president of the most important international climate conference since the passage of the Paris Agreement, has a simple answer to the question of when the world will burn up its last drop of oil: when there will be enough low-carbon energy to replace it.
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“We cannot put an end to the current energy system before we have built the energy system of tomorrow,” he replied in an interview with AFP in Brussels.
The man, who is also the head of the Emirati oil company, had just unveiled the list of targets he intends to put forward at COP28, which opens in Dubai on November 30, in a speech to European and Chinese ministers.
For those who hope the world will call for an oil and gas phase-out, he replies that reducing them is “inevitable” and “essential”, but realism prohibits going without overnight. He is currently even talking about an “energy shortage”.
“We have to remember that 800 million people today don’t have access to electricity,” he says, “we don’t want to create an energy crisis.”
“I don’t have a magic wand, I don’t want to invent dates that aren’t justified,” he insists, affirming that no one is able to give an exact date for phasing out fossil fuels.
With the private
The reasoning is pragmatic for someone who is both a fossil fuel and renewable energy expert, as head of national company Adnoc and founder of national renewable energy company, Masdar.
Sultan al-Jaber, who has also led his country’s delegation to a dozen COPs, firmly rejects the recurring allegations by environmentalists while Adnoc plans to develop new oil fields.
“It’s not a conflict of interest, it’s our mutual interest to have someone who comes from business,” he continues, noting that he is COP’s first Chief President. “In fact, it’s motivating to prove to the world that someone with my experience can invent something completely different.”
On Thursday, he unveiled goals that appear to form the backbone of an important agreement at COP28 that he clearly wants to revamp the genre of. The last two editions ended in a diplomatic battle between those who want to phase out fossil fuels and oil-producing countries, from the Gulf to the United States.
He wants to mix the commitments of states under the auspices of the United Nations with those of industry and the private sector, which he wants to give a big place in Dubai. He expects 70,000 participants, twice as many as at the largest COPs in the past.
“We must do everything we can to keep the 1.5°C mark within reach,” emphasizes Sultan al-Jaber, referring to the maximum warming target set in the Paris Agreement.
“I have no doubt that at the end of a COP we can achieve a concrete result that is “action-oriented (…) and private-sector and private-capital driven”.
Specific targets proposed Thursday include: triple global renewable energy capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030, double energy efficiency improvements by 2030, double hydrogen production by 2030.
Targets already broadly endorsed by the European Union, which nearly slammed the door at the COP27 in Egypt.
Pro nuclear power
“I am very optimistic,” summarizes Sultan al-Jaber, who peppers his explanations with “results”, “measures” and “key performance indicators”.
The 49-year-old engineer also has no hesitation in defending nuclear power: “a safe, sustainable, low-carbon power source that can be a very robust bridge in this transition.”
For the first time, the COP will be preceded by a global assessment of countries’ climate commitments, which is expected in September. We already know what he will conclude: Despite all the big promises of carbon neutrality, the plans that are actually passed are not enough to limit global warming.
Sultan al-Jaber, always eager to show himself in action, therefore wrote to all countries participating in the COPs on Thursday, publicly urging them to “revise their climate plans upwards by September to align them with the Paris Agreement”.
On the same day, the United Arab Emirates released their own updated plan. Experts from the Climate Action Tracker will say in a few days whether this will improve the rating of the Emirates, previously in the “completely insufficient” category.