You were probably shocked to learn that there are monolingual Francophones in Montreal Difficulty obtaining services in French in the public health network. In fact, the Journal de Montréal recently revealed a detection on the subject. Are we in the presence of anecdotes? Or are we facing a big trend? In general, is there a risk of English becoming the working language in Montreal?
On November 30, 2022, Statistics Canada released the 2021 working language census data. We learn that English is the most common working language for 21.1% of Montrealers. If we add Montrealers who speak both French and English at work (8.0%), we see that 29.1% of Montrealers speak English at least 50% of the time at work. Looking back, this figure reached 26.9% in 2001 and 26.8% in 2011. If English stagnated between 2001 and 2011, it improved significantly between 2011 and 2021.
For comparison, in Quebec, English as a working language stagnated between 2001 (3.9%) and 2011 (3.6%), rising to 4.4% in 2021.
English take Montreal by storm
Despite Bill 101 and the fact that French is the official language in Quebec, one wonders why English is so important in Montreal when the phenomenon is rather marginal in Quebec.
Beyond intuitions, Statistics Canada census data and demographic projections provide reliable quantitative data that allow us to better understand the problem.
First of all, it should be noted that French as a first language in Montreal increases from 66.5% in 2001 to 63.3% in 2011 and then to 59.9% in 2021 (census data); a decline of 6.6% in 20 years. And forecasts predict that figure will drop to 54% by 2036. For comparison, for Quebec City, these values are 95.5%, 94.9%, and 92.4% according to the 2001, 2011, and 2021 censuses, respectively.
Then we observe that the demographic weight of 1st and 2nd generation immigrants increases from 29.1% in 2001 to 37.7% in 2011 and then to 41.4% in 2021 for Montreal during this period rising from 5.1% in 2001 to 7.4% in 2011, then at 11.4% in 2021 for Quebec according to census data. It is projected that by 2041, 1st and 2nd generation immigrants will make up 54.9% of Montreal’s population and 19.3% of Quebec’s population.
Finally, when we listen to the many testimonials from Montrealers who tell us that “the face of Montreal is changing,” we find that their impression is backed up by the statistics. In 2001, 13.6% of Montrealers were from visible minorities, rising to 20.3% for 2011 and 27.2% for 2021; Forecasts assume 39.5% for 2041. The contrast with Quebec is striking; in the capital, the visible minorities increase successively from 1.6% to 3.1%, to 7.2% and to 12.4% for the 2001, 2011 and 2021 censuses and for the projections for 2041 respectively. So it is not just an impression, the face of Montreal is really changing.
Urgent need for a language policy
It is therefore reasonable to posit that English is increasing in the labor market because the French ancestry of Montreal residents is decreasing (as in Quebec in general), that there are too many immigrants to assimilate to English, and that language policies are too does weak to counteract the attractiveness of the English language on a continent where it is hegemonic. How else can we explain why Quebec City is not seeing the growth of English as a working language?
While language policies have not prevented the decline of French in Montreal over the past 20 years, and the French ancestry of its residents will continue to decline in the coming decades, it is foreseeable that English will become the language of Montreal.
To refute this prediction, the government would have to have the courage to implement effective language policies while making the necessary immigration decisions. If nothing is done, monolingual French-speakers in Montreal risk becoming second-class citizens for language reasons.
Clarification: The statistical data used relates to the Montreal and Quebec census metropolitan areas.
Charles Gaudreault, M.Sc.A Engineer, Independent Researcher, Quebec