Turkey – a close partner of Russia and at the same time a member of NATO – also did not shy away from Moscow’s proximity this time around. Turkey and Russia maintain a partnership characterized primarily by strategic interests. Daria Isachenko of the Science and Politics Foundation calls this “a very sensitive network of connections”. Turkey depends on grain, energy and tourists from Russia. In 2020, nearly 34% of Turkey’s gas imports came from there. Russian gas pipelines run through Turkey. Turkey is also not participating in Western sanctions against Russia – which increases the country’s importance to Russian companies, for example.
Russian foreign policy expert Alexei Puschkov, for example, praised Erdogan for representing his own country’s interests “in contrast to euro politicians” and not being afraid to “confront the collective West”. At the same time, both countries are on different sides in conflicts such as Syria, Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh, without taking direct action against each other.
This is one of the reasons Turkey is likely to depend on the green light for another offensive in Syria. Hüseyin Bagci, president of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute, told dpa that Erdogan traveled to Russia because he had not yet received what he wanted — namely, an agreement for another offensive in Syria. The Turkish president has been threatening this for several weeks. Without Russia’s approval – in the Syrian civil war on the regime’s side – Ankara should not have dared to take this step. After the meeting, there was initially nothing to indicate that Russia had given up its opposition to the project.
Turkey argues that the offensive is necessary to combat the “terrorist” threat. Observers, on the other hand, are suspicious of strategic electoral action behind a renewed offensive. Analyst Deniz Kalyoncu agrees: “Elections will be held in Turkey in 2023 and polls say Erdogan needs a new story to touch people. That’s one of the reasons he thinks the Syrian mission is so urgent.”
Before negotiations began, Putin praised his guest for Turkey’s mediation in the grain crisis – and referred particularly to the additional declaration of intent with the UN, which aims to promote the export of Russian food and fertilizer. Both sides confirmed the agreement on Ukrainian grain exports, the statement said in the evening.
Agricultural exports through Ukrainian Black Sea ports were recently blocked for months because of the Russian war of aggression. War opponents Ukraine and Russia separately signed an agreement with Turkey on July 22, through UN mediation, to allow Ukraine to export grain from three ports.
It is the second face-to-face meeting between the two heads of state in a month. This is particularly notable in Putin’s case, as the Kremlin chief, increasingly isolated from the world, only conducts many of his conversations over the phone or via video link.
Ankara also maintains close ties with Kyiv. Erdogan was harshly critical of the invasion of Russia, but always emphasized that he does not want to give up any of his partners.
Therefore, one prospective topic of conversation in particular attracted attention. According to the Kremlin, the meeting should also discuss technical-military cooperation. Moscow recently showed interest in the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drone, which was also successfully used by Kyiv during the war. CNN quoted Turk Erdogan as saying that Putin had suggested working with Turkey on the Baykar drones. If Russia developed the drones together with Turkey, Moscow would also have access to technology from a NATO member state. It is not immediately known whether the matter has been raised.
Shortly after the start of the Russian war of aggression, Erdogan said he would not rule out arms deals with Russia. However, Baykar chairman Haluk Bayraktar told CNN International in mid-July that Russia has not received drones and “never will”. “We support Ukraine.”
The arms deals with Russia have brought strong criticism to Turkey in the past. In 2017, Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The United States imposed sanctions under then-President Donald Trump for this reason. Turkey was also excluded from a major weapons project.