WASHINGTON — When Russia and Ukraine reached a deal on Friday to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played the role of a benevolent statesman.
Sitting next to the UN Secretary-General in an Ottoman palace in Istanbul, Erdogan said the deal, which Turkey helped broker, would benefit “all of humanity”.
President Biden’s administration welcomed the deal, which could ease a global food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the blockade of its ports. Officials have expressed skepticism about whether Russia was acting in good faith, and Russian missiles hit the Ukrainian port city of Odessa less than a day after the pact was signed. Nevertheless, a White House spokesman had praised Mr Erdogan for his efforts.
But privately, Mr Erdogan has remained a source of significant irritation for officials in the Biden government.
Days before he presided over the grain deal, the Turkish autocrat reiterated a warning that he could veto NATO’s plans to admit Sweden and Finland as members in the coming months, an act that the alliance and the Biden administration are planning to do work against Russia would embarrass deeply. And Congress this month raised concerns over Mr Biden’s pledge at a NATO summit in Spain last month to sell dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
On Tuesday, Mr Erdogan traveled to Tehran for meetings with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. The images of two top American rivals with Mr Erdogan, the leader of a NATO country, clashed with the Western narrative of a deeply isolated Iran and Russia, analysts said.
Then on Friday, a White House spokesman reiterated US concerns over Mr Erdogan’s threats to launch a new invasion of northern Syria targeting US-backed Kurdish fighters, whom he views as terrorists.
Taken together, Mr Erdogan’s actions – and Mr Biden’s limited ability to restrain them – underscore the Turkish leader’s unique position as a military ally that is often at odds with the agenda of his Western allies. For US officials, it’s an often wacky role.
“Erdogan is basically NATO’s Joe Manchin,” said Elizabeth Shackelford, a former Foreign Service official, referring to the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia who has stymied Mr. Biden’s domestic political agenda. “He’s on our team but then he does things that are so clearly not good for our team. And I just don’t see that changing.”
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But Biden administration officials say writing off Mr Erdogan entirely would be self-destructive. His nation’s position at the crossroads of East and West is strategic and allows it to be interlocutor with even more troubled neighbors – as demonstrated by the grain deal, which created a demilitarized corridor through the Black Sea for Ukraine’s agricultural exports.
A senior US official said much of Mr Erdogan’s problematic behavior stemmed from his political weakness in Turkey, where the inflation rate rose to nearly 80 percent last month. Hoping to divert attention from his mismanaged economy, Mr Erdogan has turned to nationalist and demagogic statements about the threat posed by the PKK, a Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey, and Kurdish groups in Syria.
Major NATO initiatives, such as the proposed expansion of the 30-strong alliance to include Sweden and Finland, require unanimous approval. Mr Biden said in May he hoped the two countries could engage “quickly” in what would be a major strategic blow to Mr Putin.
However, Mr Erdogan objected, complaining that both potential new members had politically and financially supported the PKK, which the United States has designated as a terrorist organization due to its history of violent attacks. US and NATO officials feared the planned expansion could collapse with a major propaganda win for Mr Putin, who has long worked to split the alliance.
NATO leaders breathed a sigh of relief at their summit last month when Mr Erdogan struck an agreement with the leaders of Sweden and Finland, who pledged to crack down on terrorist organizations and join extradition deals with Turkey, the PKK members involved in them countries live, wants to prosecute .
Mr. Biden seemed particularly grateful for the breakthrough. “I especially want to thank you for compiling the situation regarding Finland and Sweden,” he told Mr Erdogan in the presence of reporters.
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Jul 23, 2022 11:29 am ET
The bilateral agreement said, in general language, that Sweden and Finland would deal expeditiously and thoroughly with Turkey’s “pending requests for deportation or extradition of terrorist suspects”. But Turkish officials have said they expect the extradition of more than 70 people. It was unclear if Sweden and Finland would agree or how Mr Erdogan would react if they didn’t.
On Monday, Mr Erdogan warned that he could still “freeze” NATO expansion if his demands were not met.
Mr Biden also told Mr Erdogan in Spain that he supports the sale of 40 American F-16 fighter jets that Turkey requested last fall, along with technology upgrades for dozens of fighters it already owns. Turkey wants those planes in part because the Trump administration canceled plans to sell advanced F-35 fighter jets to the country in 2019 after Mr Erdogan, in one of his more puzzling recent moves, used Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system against the United States had bought warnings.
Mr Biden denied he offered the planes to buy Mr Erdogan’s support for NATO expansion. “And with that there was nothing in return; we should just sell,” he said. “But I need congressional approval to be able to do that and I think we can get that.”
Congressional approval may not be given. And it was unclear whether Mr Erdogan could block planned NATO expansion until he reached an agreement on the F-16 jets.
This month, the House of Representatives approved an amendment to an annual military policy bill that would require Mr. Biden to confirm that any sale of the fighter jets is in America’s vital national interests and that Turkey will not use the jets to fly around Greece’s airspace, its Aegean Sea , hurting sea neighbor and NATO ally with whom Ankara is engaged in a bitter territorial dispute.
Rep. Chris Pappas, a New Hampshire Democrat and sponsor of the amendment, also cited Mr. Erdogan’s purchase of Russia’s missile system and his ambiguous position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr Erdogan has called the invasion “unacceptable” but has not joined the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and its allies.
“Enough is enough,” said Mr. Pappas. “Turkey played on both sides of the fence in Ukraine. You were not the reliable ally we should be counting on.”
“I think the Biden administration needs to take a stronger stance,” he added.
Once the White House formally requests that Congress authorize the sale of the planes, Mr. Biden will need the support of other influential members who are very critical of Mr. Erdogan, including Democratic Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez New Jersey.
Mr Menendez has previously questioned whether Turkey even belongs in NATO. And at a hearing last month on proposed NATO expansion, he said that “Turkey’s 11-hour concerns standing in the way of that process only serves Putin’s interests given the time.”
Mr. Menendez also issued a statement last month with his Republican counterpart on the Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, sternly warning Mr. Erdogan of his impending invasion of northern Syria. They were joined by the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Gregory W. Meeks of New York, and his Republican counterpart, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas.
In the statement, lawmakers said the potential invasion would have “catastrophic consequences,” threatening local operations against what remains of Islamic State and deepening Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
A Pentagon official recently supplemented the American warnings.
“We are firmly opposed to any Turkish operation in northern Syria and have made our objections clear to Turkey,” Dana Stroul, deputy deputy secretary of defense, said this month at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “ISIS will take advantage of this campaign.”
Some of Erdogan’s harshest critics warn of an endless cycle in which the Turkish leader wins concessions from the United States and other NATO allies, like new fighter jets and a tougher crackdown on Kurdish militia fighters, only to escalate his demands in the aftermath Future.
“This dance around the F-16 — that’s jet fighter diplomacy, and that’s a mask of what’s really at play here,” said Mark Wallace, founder of the Turkish Democracy Project, a group very critical of Mr Erdogan and himself opposed to authoritarianism. “A good ally – let alone a good NATO ally – will not use blackmail to get what they want at key moments in Alliance history.”
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Aspen, Colorado.