Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on Friday he would “keep his word” and give the green light for Finland to join NATO, as agreed at last year’s Atlantic Alliance Summit in Madrid. After the decision, the process still has to be approved by Turkey’s parliament, which will go on hiatus in mid-April due to parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14. Also pending is the approval of Sweden’s accession, with which the same roadmap was agreed as with Finland, but with which Ankara still has disagreements.
Despite the intention of Sweden and Finland to join NATO at the same time, the two countries’ negotiations with Turkey took place on separate paths. The two states had pledged to tighten their laws regarding public demonstrations in support of the Kurdish armed group PKK (designated terrorist by Turkey and the EU) on their territories, facilitating the extradition of people arrested by the Turkish authorities be sought, and lift the arms embargoes on Ankara’s foreign interventions.
However, back in October, Erdogan told Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin that he was satisfied with the measures adopted by Helsinki, thus opening the door to facilitating Finland’s entry into the Atlantic Alliance while maintaining the veto on Sweden. “I explained to him that our relations with Finland are different from those with Sweden because terrorists are not running wild in Finland,” Erdogan said at the time.
This Wednesday, Erdogan replied to a question from the press as to whether Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, who will travel to Ankara together with Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, would be given a positive answer on Friday: “God willing, if it’s for the best, we will do what we have to do […]. We will meet with the President [finlandés] on Friday and we will keep our promise.”
For his part, the Finnish President pointed out in an email to Portal agency: “We knew that when Turkish President Erdogan made the decision on Finland’s accession to NATO, he wanted to have a meeting to confirm his promise as President Two other Turkish government sources confirmed to the same agency that there would be “positive news” on Friday.
Negotiations with Sweden are a different story. In January, a source from Turkey’s executive confirmed to the newspaper that dialogue with Stockholm had been “indefinitely suspended” after it reached an impasse. The Prime Minister of Sweden himself, Ulf Kristersson, stated that on top of the measures he had called for last year and which Stockholm has largely complied with, Ankara is demanding further concessions. “Things that we cannot or do not want to give,” said the Swedish prime minister.
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Turkish leaders have gone so far as to demand that the burning of the Koran – as perpetrated by Danish right-wing extremist Rasmus Paludan outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm earlier this year – or the burning of dolls be banned when Erdogan officials are prevented from to be symbolically hanged, but that clashes with Swedish legislation, which guarantees a lot when it comes to freedom of expression. They have also called for Turkey’s demanded extradition of various Turkish nationals who have fled Sweden to be expedited, but it is the Nordic country’s judiciary that has the final say in these cases.
Some analysts have seen Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden’s entry into the alliance as concerted action with Moscow, similar to Hungary’s blockade of Viktor Orbán, which has not yet ratified the Scandinavians’ entry into the NATO alliance. The Turkish President has very good relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and Moscow has sent key funds to the Central Bank of Turkey to keep the value of the Turkish lira stable.
But it is also true that Erdogan faces the most difficult election in two decades and his rivals – including strong nationalist parties – could exploit any hint of weakness in the Turkish president. On the other hand, conservative voters may benefit from being tough on Sweden on issues considered very important – respect for the Islamic religion and national security. Therefore, progress in negotiations with Sweden is unlikely to be made before Turkey completes its electoral cycle.
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