- Turkey-EU relations have been challenging over the years.
- “The EU has a huge problem if Erdogan doesn’t cooperate,” Maria Demertzis, senior fellow at Brussels think tank Bruegel, told CNBC on Tuesday. “The EU is dependent on Turkey when dealing with migrants.”
- Ankara applied to join the EU back in 1987, but after several hurdles along the way, talks to join the faction were frozen in 2018.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Kenzo Tribouillard | Afp | Getty Images
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed his country’s bid to join the European Union amid debates over Sweden’s NATO membership, but political pundits are not entirely convinced of the Turkish leader’s goals.
Erdogan surprised many on Monday when he linked Sweden’s NATO-joining efforts to his country’s accession to the EU. He said European nations should “pave the way” for Turkey to join the political bloc in exchange for Ankara’s agreement with Sweden to join the military alliance. But these are two completely different processes for two very different institutions.
“I was quite surprised that he linked that,” Maria Demertzis, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told CNBC on Tuesday. “You throw out a fishing net to see what you can get,” she said of Erdogan’s move.
Turkey-EU relations have been challenging over the years. Ankara applied to join the EU back in 1987, but after several hurdles along the way, talks to join the faction were frozen in 2018. The EU understood that Turkey was proposing many political reforms that they were actually “further away”. “off the block.
One of the policy changes that angered the EU was a referendum in 2017 that gave Erdogan more executive powers.
“He needs money,” an EU official, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, told CNBC on Tuesday, explaining why Erdogan is now raising the issue again. “All this new friendship with the West. He hasn’t changed. He wants something,” the same official added.
A spokesman for the Turkish representation in Brussels was not immediately available for comment when asked by CNBC.
In 2016, the EU agreed to disburse 6 billion euros ($6.5 billion) in two tranches to Ankara to help cope with the high influx of refugees. The deal came after the EU saw an unprecedented number of refugees at its borders.
“The EU has a huge problem if Erdogan does not cooperate,” said Demertzis. “The EU is dependent on Turkey when dealing with migrants.”
The number of refugees arriving in the EU in 2023 is currently nowhere near the level of 2015, the peak of the region’s migration crisis. However, with around 4 million refugees currently in Turkey, lawmakers in Ankara still have a lot of bargaining power when it comes to Brussels.
“It’s more than [money]Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the Ankara bureau of think tank The German Marshall Fund, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“[Erdogan] expects a special relationship,” he added, mentioning a possible visit by the French President to Turkey later this year. Erdogan “needs to see more visits of this kind,” said Ünlühisarcıklı.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive branch and the institution that oversees countries’ accession process to the union, said on Monday that it was up to Ankara to do the necessary work to join the political and economic group.
“The European Union has a very structured enlargement process and a very, very clear set of steps that need to be taken by all candidate countries and even those who want to become candidate countries,” a spokesman for the commission told reporters on Monday.
“The accession process for each candidate country is based on the merits of each country,” added the same spokesman.
But according to Ünlühisarcıklı, Erdogan may not even want EU membership. “This goes too far” as it would ensure the imposition of certain undesirable measures in Turkey, he said.
He mentioned that the modernization of the customs union and visa liberalization would be more attractive for Turkey. The former would encourage trade with European countries and the latter would allow Turkish citizens to travel more easily within the EU.
However, it will be difficult for the EU to give Turkey any significant advantages. For example, countries like Greece and Cyprus have historic disputes with Ankara. In addition, some EU countries, especially after the war in Ukraine, have found it difficult to trust Erdogan given his ties to the Kremlin.