From Le Figaro with AFP
Posted 23 minutes ago
This image released by the Venezuelan Armed Forces on December 29, 2023 shows fighter jets and frigates during military exercises near the sea in the dispute with Guyana. HANDOUT / AFP
According to experts, this crisis should not lead to armed conflict as Nicolas Maduro is seeking re-election in 2024 and is negotiating with the US to ease the sanctions regime against Venezuela.
“In battle! Ahead!” introduces Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on television and shows images of fighter jets and military frigates stationed near neighboring Guyana, from which he claims authority over Essequibo territory.
This show of force is intended to respond to the arrival of a Royal Navy patrol boat on Friday in the waters of the former British colony, but is unlikely to lead to armed conflict, according to experts, who point to a national timetable for Maduro. who is seeking re-election in 2024, and negotiations with the United States to ease sanctions on Venezuela.
• The provision
Venezuela has mobilized 5,682 fighters as part of this “defensive operation,” including F-16 and Sukhoi fighter jets, warships, offshore patrol boats, missile boats and amphibious vehicles.
Mr Maduro considers the arrival of the British warship HMS Trent in Guyana's territorial waters, confirmed to AFP by the former British colony's foreign ministry, as a “provocation and threat to the United Kingdom against peace and sovereignty”. his land. London responded that the Venezuelan maneuvers were “unjustified and must stop.”
Guyana had already tried to play down the significance of the patrol boat's arrival, saying they were long-planned “routine” exercises, but without canceling the joint military exercises. Brazil expressed “concern” on Friday and called on its two neighbors to “avoid military demonstrations.”
• Recklessness?
The presence of the patrol boat is “an imprudence that forces Venezuela to react as it has done so far,” analyzes Rocio San Miguel, a military expert who often criticizes Venezuelan power. “The military escalation depends on the movements of this British ship in not yet demarcated waters,” she believes.
For Gary Best, former chief of staff of the Guyana Armed Forces, the opposite is true: “There is nothing unusual and it does not pose a threat to the sovereignty of Venezuela.” “Other ships have transited the region as part of the regional security system,” he told AFP, adding, however, that he “understands that Venezuela sees this as a provocation.”
Also Read: Venezuela Referendum: “Yes” Wins for Annexation of Major Oil Producing Region in Guyana
• Negotiations
Tensions between Caracas and Georgetown rose after Guyana launched oil tenders in September and, in response, organized a referendum in Venezuela on December 3 on the annexation of Essequibo, a 160,000 km² area rich in oil and natural resources and of Georgetown is administered and claimed by Venezuela.
About 125,000 people, or a fifth of Guyana's population, live in Essequibo, which occupies two-thirds of the country's land area. Venezuela claims that the Essequibo River should be the natural border, as it was in 1777 during the time of the Spanish Empire. Guyana argues that the English colonial-era border was ratified by an arbitration court in Paris in 1899. Which London also defends.
Settlement proceedings are underway at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), but Venezuela does not recognize the United Nations' highest court. President Maduro and his Guyanese counterpart Irfaan Ali pledged not to use force at a meeting on December 14, but the two countries stuck to their positions.
• Parallel files
According to Mr. Best, Mr. Maduro's coup is also an issue of domestic politics as he seeks a third term in the 2024 presidential election: “It is a demonstration of power, of grandeur, to keep the fire burning” face of the opposition. And thus occupy the media field with a mobilizing cause.
Another key player in this standoff: the United States, with which Venezuela has been negotiating in recent weeks to try to finally lift sanctions that burden the country with the world's largest oil reserves.
Last week's prisoner exchange shows that the dialogue is ongoing. This came after the temporary lifting of American sanctions for six months, following an agreement between power and opposition on the presence of observers at the 2024 election, the date of which has not yet been set. The United States is the main oil operator in Guyana and has been omnipresent in Venezuela with Chevron.