“In battle! Advance!” introduces Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on television and shows images of fighter jets and military frigates stationed near neighboring Guyana, from which he claims authority over Essequibo territory.
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This show of force is intended to respond to the arrival of a Royal Navy patrol boat on Friday in the waters of the former British colony, but is unlikely to lead to armed conflict, experts say, pointing to a national timetable for Mr. Maduro, seeking re-election in 2024, and negotiations with the United States to ease sanctions on Venezuela.
The stakes
Venezuela has mobilized 5,682 fighters as part of this “defensive operation,” including F-16 and Sukhoi fighter jets, warships, offshore patrol boats, missile boats and amphibious vehicles.
AFP | Armed Forces of Venezuela
Mr Maduro considers the arrival of the British warship HMS Trent in Guyana's territorial waters, confirmed to AFP by the former British colony's foreign ministry, as a “provocation and threat to the United Kingdom against peace and sovereignty”. his land.
London responded that the Venezuelan maneuvers were “unjustified and must stop.”
AFP
Guyana had already tried to play down the significance of the patrol boat's arrival, saying they were long-planned “routine” exercises, but without canceling the joint military exercises.
Brazil expressed “concern” on Friday and called on its two neighbors to “avoid military demonstrations.”
Imprudence?
The presence of the patrol boat is “an imprudence that forces Venezuela to react as it has done so far,” analyzes Rocio San Miguel, a military expert who often criticizes Venezuelan power.
“The military escalation depends on the movements of this British ship in not yet demarcated waters,” she believes.
AFP | Armed Forces of Venezuela
For Gary Best, former chief of staff of the Guyana Defense Forces, the opposite is true: “It is nothing unusual and it does not pose a threat to Venezuela’s sovereignty.” “Other ships have transited the region as part of the regional security system,” he told AFP, adding, however, that he “understands that Venezuela sees this as a provocation.”
negotiations
Tensions between Caracas and Georgetown escalated following Guyana's introduction of oil tenders in September and the December 3 referendum organized in Venezuela on the annexation of the Essequibo, a 160,000 km2 territory rich in oil and natural resources administered by Georgetown and claimed by Venezuela.
About 125,000 people, or a fifth of Guyana's population, live in Essequibo, which occupies two-thirds of the country's land area.
AFP | Armed Forces of Venezuela
Venezuela claims that the Essequibo River should be the natural border, as it was in 1777 during the time of the Spanish Empire. Guyana argues that the English colonial-era border was ratified by an arbitration court in Paris in 1899. Which London also defends.
There is a settlement procedure before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), but Venezuela does not recognize the highest court of the United Nations.
AFP
President Maduro and his Guyanese counterpart Irfaan Ali pledged not to use force at a meeting on December 14, but the two countries stuck to their positions.
Parallel files
According to Mr. Best, Mr. Maduro's coup is also an issue of domestic politics as he seeks a third term in the 2024 presidential election: “It is a demonstration of power, of grandeur, to keep the fire burning” face of the opposition. And thus occupy the media field with a mobilizing cause.
Another key player in this standoff: the United States, with which Venezuela has been negotiating in recent weeks to try to finally lift sanctions that burden the country with the world's largest oil reserves.
Last week's prisoner exchange shows that the dialogue is ongoing. This came after the temporary lifting of American sanctions for six months, following an agreement between power and opposition on the presence of observers at the 2024 election, the date of which has not yet been set.
The United States is the main oil operator in Guyana and has been omnipresent in Venezuela with Chevron.