by Stefano Montefiori, correspondent from Paris
Former French Prime Minister: «The war in Ukraine changed the world. To what extent can we accept what is happening? The risk is that our moral defeat will be terrible.
“We come to the fundamental question: How far can we Westerners, members of the European Union or the Atlantic Alliance, go to accept what is happening in Ukraine?”. Manuel Valls, 59, former Prime Minister of France, in government when Syrian Bashar alAssad, with the support of Vladimir Putin, used chemical weapons against his compatriots and when Putin himself invaded and annexed Crimea, he says: “We can resign, we can’t pretend that the war in Ukraine won’t change the world».
What do you think of Zelenskyy’s speech in the French Parliament? What about your criticism of French companies like Renault, which have not yet left Russia?
“The President of Ukraine has the right to demand ever stricter aid and sanctions, to demand from the European countries meeting tomorrow, to urge companies to make the decisions they need to make. But behind the scenes there is a broader question that we all need to face now ».
The latest news about the war in Ukraine
So what to do if negotiations after sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine are unsuccessful?
“Right, we have to prepare for all eventualities. Can we accept the total destruction of Ukraine? Mariupol, Odessa, Kyiv? could we accept the use of chemical weapons after Russia has already used hypersonic missiles?
So far, the West has not intervened directly to comply with nuclear deterrence rules and not unleash nuclear war.
«Of course, from a legal and political point of view, the reason is perfectly understandable, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. And it is right to give the negotiations every opportunity to the end, hoping that the massacres will stop. But what if this doesn’t happen? What to do if the destruction continues? The risk is that our moral defeat will be terrible ».
What do you suggest us?
“I’ll limit myself to the question for the time being, the risks are very clear to me. But the question now is: After a month of war, is the current situation sustainable in the medium term, both from a moral and strategic point of view? I believe that the heads of state and government of the EU, NATO and the G7 are asking themselves exactly that these days.
For example, Poland came up with the idea of deploying armed forces on Ukrainian soil to ensure humanitarian corridors.
“Of course the lines of discussion are moving, which is why I say we are approaching a time when we have to make difficult decisions. We want to avoid war, that’s for sure and absolutely right. Nonetheless, the war is already here, and we must prepare to win it. We are no longer in a classic situation, the defense doctrine has completely changed in a few days. The tightening of sanctions, business relations with Russia, gas and oil supplies are key issues we have dealt with so far. But we come to the moment when we must answer the fundamental question ».
American President Biden immediately made it clear that he would not send troops to Ukraine, repeated this several times and expressly ruled out any direct intervention. Wasn’t he too conscientious about it? Wouldn’t it have been better to leave Putin in the dark rather than give him the green light without putting Russia in a red line that it must not cross?
“As for the red line, we have a heavy precedent. In 2013, in Bashar, we drew the red line on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Biden was Obama’s deputy at the time. Bashar was still using chemical weapons against his population and our Rafales fled to provide the promised response. The targets had already been chosen jointly with our American allies. I was in government, France was determined. It was Obama who pulled out, we were forced to recall the fighters and return them to bases. This signal of American weakness was immediately exploited by Vladimir Putin in Syria and a few months later in Crimea. Putin knew he had a free hand, he knew the United States would not intervene.”
Is the situation different now?
“It seems to me that things have changed, especially for us Europeans. We cannot shy away from a civilizational struggle, not from today, but at least from the speech at the 2007 Munich conference when Putin laid out his theory about weak and LGBT ideologydominated Western democracies. His speeches are violent and, as we now know, must be taken literally. We must prepare our public opinion ».
What can we expect?
“The turning point could come in the next few days. Let’s see how these international summits fare. Let’s see if diplomatic efforts end the war as we all hope. On the other hand, if the war goes on against our will, we must be ready ».
What do you think of those in the West who support the Kremlin’s theses?
“In reality, the majority of Europeans are showing extraordinary dynamics in favor of Ukraine. Then, of course, there are those who call themselves pacifists. You remind me of a sentence made by President François Mitterrand before the Bundestag in 1983: “I too am against missiles. But I realize that the pacifists are in the West, and the missiles are in the East».
March 23, 2022 (change March 23, 2022 | 21:53)
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