It is a high risk operation. The expansion of the European Union to include Ukraine and Moldova marks a new future for Europe. The next community club with up to 36 members (including Balkans and Georgia), more than 500 million inhabitants, will be more heterogeneous, economically, socially, culturally. And the security consequences of this expansion during and after are oceanic in nature. It is the first time that the Union – in which there is no longer any room for gray areas – extends a hand to a country, Ukraine, that is resisting in a large-scale war and is the victim of the aggression of a major nuclear power, Russia; and another, Moldova, which does not have full control of its territory and is struggling to fend off the tentacles that the Kremlin is desperate to maintain. The Twenty-Seven's historic decision on Thursday to begin accession negotiations with Kiev and Chisinau is one of the Union's most transformative decisions.
Some skeptics see this week's resolution as purely symbolic: “The next Ukrainian commissioner has not yet been born,” one veteran diplomat predicted, somewhat ironically. The same people consider the lack of unanimity resulting from Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán's veto in the European Council to throw Kiev an economic lifeline worth 50 billion euros as a major failure of the Union. Even more so as support for the United States dwindles due to its internal struggles (particularly from Republicans). But there are other tools and the EU will provide Ukraine with this oxygen tank, with or without Hungary's support.
Instead, the promise of accession – which was achieved because Orbán withdrew his veto against all odds – provides a permanent anchor. It remains to be seen whether the promise to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary” is a sufficient thread to withstand a long war or the differentiating element that makes it possible to win it. Until now it was the first option. “Washington could falter or even collapse completely and for the EU that would almost be a tragedy, it would make the situation very difficult, but the war is raging on the European continent and that marks the reality in one way or another,” he says a high community source.
Although Kiev needs the resources to stay afloat and the economic issue is more pressing than the prospect of joining the union, it sees the decision as a turning point. “It’s a victory for Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media on Friday. “A victory for all of Europe that motivates, inspires and strengthens,” added the Ukrainian leader. “Let us embark on this journey together to build an even stronger and more united Europe,” urged Moldovan President Maia Sandu on X (formerly Twitter). In Georgia, which has been designated as a candidate country, hundreds of citizens have taken to the streets these days with the blue, star-studded flag of the European Union.
Rally in Tbilisi, Georgia to celebrate the EU granting the country candidate status. DAVID MDZINARISHVILI (EFE)
Like the banners erected in Kiev's Maidan Square a decade ago as part of the pro-European and anti-corruption rallies that toppled pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. These protests led to a bloodbath in response to autocrat Vladimir Putin, who illegally annexed Crimea and encouraged and fueled the war in Donbass. A conflict that merged almost 700 days ago with the full-scale war that Putin launched to erase Ukraine's sovereignty and prevent the country's inevitable full turn to the West.
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Kiev – despite the difficulty of doing this in parallel with the fight against Russia – and Chisinau must now accelerate reforms and next steps to adapt to the community club's democratic and organizational standards. It is a long and difficult process in which the Balkans have been involved for years with better or worse results. “The reforms not only make us EU members, but also make us more resilient and capable of surviving and defending ourselves,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said via email from Kiev.
It was Russia's war against Ukraine that led the EU to make many historic decisions and revived the process of eastward expansion. Expansion had been frozen for years, fueling frustration in the Balkans, which now sees an opportunity, albeit slowly and perhaps partially.
The geopolitical reality, the ecosystem of candidates and the threat from Russia (not only from the war in Ukraine, but also from the destabilization and influence maneuvers that shape its playbook for other countries like Serbia) and the push by other actors like China makes making this next major expansion the most difficult of all. Much more than the Big Bang of 2004, which united Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus and Malta. But although it will take years to crystallize – even decades, as the wry diplomat points out – the next expansion already marks the present. “It is time to keep promises and clarify ambiguities. Expansion is no longer a dream. It is time to move forward,” said European Council President Charles Michel.
step by step process
Currently, the EU already de facto places Ukraine under some of its umbrellas – Kiev has been integrated into the electricity market and into several community programs. In addition, the idea is being pushed in Brussels to carry out the next major enlargement in stages, first involving the candidate countries (each at its own pace) in elements such as the internal market, various representative bodies (observers in the European Parliament, for example) and then moving on to the Integration the levels.
In parallel, the EU has recognized that it needs to carry out internal reforms in order to continue functioning with a population of more than 500 million. The Twenty-Seven agreed this week that the timetable for this will be set next summer. Now it's time to figure out what these changes are and when they should be fixed. Budgets, decision-making processes, agricultural policy and the composition of institutions must be reformulated.
The debate takes place on the occasion of the European Parliament elections in June. Meanwhile, during the review of the multiannual financial framework in recent weeks, some leaders have already been negotiating with a view to the next budgets, to be set in 2027, which will have to take these internal changes into account. The new accounts may already deal with the future members (some already have a foot in or are hoping to graduate soon) who will be beneficiaries of the Cohesion and Agriculture Funds, compared to the vast majority of current members who will be cash contributors to these Items.
A neighbor walks in front of a building bombed by Russia in Orijiv in the Zaporiya region.STRINGER (Portal)
Knocking on the candidates' door is already causing tensions in their neighbors, such as the protests by farmers and truck drivers in Poland – also in Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania – against Ukrainian grain entering the EU without tariffs, and the Show transport of grain Other goods.
Although polls show that the majority of Europeans believe that enlargement needs to be accelerated in the face of Russia's maneuvers and even more so, according to a special Eurobarometer survey published this month by the European Parliament.
The process to the next expansion is a strong test of the unity of the community club. Also “an opportunity for the EU” to sharpen its geopolitical profile, protect its neighborhood and stabilize the contours and approach of a larger community club, emphasizes Kykke Friis from the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) in an analysis.
And while in previous integrations (2004, 2007 with Romania and Bulgaria, 2013 with Croatia) the new partners generally aimed for prosperity (in addition to shared values), two of the current applicants are primarily aiming for security measures. “Ukraine's membership in the EU would in itself be a security obligation,” says the document, which the Twenty-Seven drafted to protect those promises to Kiev that, in addition to financial packages, also support weapons and other elements such as military training include. But enlargement is also “a geostrategic necessity” for the current Union, defends analyst Luuk van Middelaar in a recent report for the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics.
Nevertheless, diplomats and analysts like Friis warn about the gap between expectations and credibility of enlargement. The process will be lengthy, it will be complex, it may lead to internal problems for the candidates and more friction for the existing members. The Community institutions must ensure a balance that does not plunge the Balkans into great frustration again, and they must avoid sowing this feeling in Moldova, and that Ukraine adds disappointment with the European Union to the tragedy of the war. That will not be easy. “The EU keeps its promises,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday, adding: “It has never been so strong and docile, rocked by multiple crises.” [La ampliación] “It is an investment in the security, in the stability of our continent and in strong and united democracies.”
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