The political goal was set by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “Eradicate Hamas.” The military is “completely destroying the government and military capabilities” of the organization, said Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari. Also bring back the 105 hostages remaining in captivity. Although two months have passed since the land invasion of the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army has still not achieved the goals it set at the beginning of its operation, following the October 7 attacks that killed 1,200 people on Israeli territory and 240 people were kidnapped. Since that day, incessant air fire and ground attacks have claimed more than 20,000 lives – 70% of them women and children – and left some 100,000 buildings in ruins, and the rate of bombardment is unprecedented since the Allied intervention in Germany at the end of World War II.
Israeli troops are advancing with a focus on the southern Gaza Strip, supported by an overwhelming internal consensus (political and social) and with the diplomatic shield of the United States, despite the thousands of dead civilians and despite the rubble, devastation and humanitarian crisis. However, this de facto carte blanche is limited by what Dov Waxman, director of the Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), calls “four clocks.” The first is diplomatic support. “We have already seen that it is running out. In the early days there was a lot, at least in western countries. Today everyone is calling for an immediate ceasefire except the United States and to some extent the United Kingdom and Germany. Even American patience is wearing thin,” he stressed via video conference.
The “second clock” is the humanitarian clock, with a growing risk of starvation deaths, the spread of disease and deteriorating living conditions already alarming UN agencies and NGOs on the ground. “They will get worse if the war continues, even if there is more humanitarian aid,” he added. Waxman also points in his “observations” to the lives of the hostages – “some are old, in poor health or were injured when they were captured,” he recalls – and fourthly, the impact on the national economy resulting from the mobilization of several hostages held hostage for months. of 300,000 reservists. “They gave up their jobs. How long can they be mobilized without significant impact on the economy?”
“There is no doubt that there is still a lot to do to achieve the strategic goal set on October 7,” says Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, who provided the figures. about what has been achieved so far. “About a quarter of Hamas's military wing, about 7,000 of its 28,000 fighters, were killed, including several leaders. What has not been achieved is the termination of Yayha Sinwar [considerado el cerebro de los ataques en Israel] and Mohamed Deif, the head of the military apparatus,” he continues. “The military infrastructure (the missiles, tunnels and weapons) is severely damaged but not completely destroyed. It will take several months to achieve broader goals, such as ending Sinwar. If the army succeeds, it can change the course of the war.”
Rockets on Tel Aviv
Despite two and a half months of fighting, the militias managed on Thursday to fire a volley of about 30 rockets targeting Israel's economic capital Tel Aviv from an occupied Gaza Strip with few buildings in its northern part. “The leadership has created a false illusion,” said Ronen Bergman, a military-political commentator for the newspaper Yediot Aharonot, this Friday. “In practice, Israel must complete the phase [de ataques] with high intensity, without having achieved the first war objective, without the complete destruction of the rockets, without significant destruction of the tunnel system and with a very partial hit on Sinwar's gang and its seven commanders, of whom only two are dead to this day. “The White House is urging Netanyahu to end this high-intensity period in January to halt the rise in Palestinian civilian casualties.
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Israel is also losing more and more men. Massive long-distance bombing and fire from armored vehicles have been joined in recent weeks by more close-quarters combat and another urban warfare scenario like that of Khan Yunis. Not a day goes by without a new death being reported: 139 as of this Saturday.
Amélie Ferey, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ethics and the law of war at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), defines the outcome of the Israeli offensive as “moderate”. “Usually a country resorts to the military option to balance the balance of power in its favor, not to wipe out the other. And that is a problem with this strategy […] Israel knows this very well because it had the same problem with Hezbollah,” Ferey says, referring to the war they fought in 2006. There were also heavy bombings back then and most of the fatalities were civilians. Nearly two decades later, Hezbollah is better organized, trained and armed and is participating in battles with Israeli soldiers stationed on the northern border, where exchanges of fire occur almost daily.
The same effect can also be observed in the Palestinian territories. A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research shows that support for Hamas has doubled since before the war. Social support for the organization is growing in both areas, but especially in the West Bank, where it has almost quadrupled.
Professor Milstein explains it this way: “The goal of wiping Hamas off the map is unrealistic. “It is a popular movement with hundreds of thousands of supporters and its radical ideological vision is deeply rooted in the minds of Palestinians,” he emphasizes. “Israel can eradicate its regime and its military capacity,” he continues, “but cannot completely eliminate the organization.” No negotiation or agreement will change this very problematic attitude, which has a cultural origin. Only internal reflection can bring an opportunity, but at the moment the situation remains very depressing because there are no alternative voices in Palestinian society or any kind of criticism of their leaders.” French Ferey partially agrees: “It is a recurring problem in Israel’s strategy,” she says. “I don’t think they will stop until they kill Sinwar, Deif or Abu Obaida [el portavoz]But Hamas is not just these three people.”
Release of the hostage
The plan is to destroy Hamas through the use of unprecedented military force, but also to release the hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu often refers to the goal of his military operation when putting it into practice. The Islamist organization released 105 people as part of the temporary ceasefire in the last week of November. They were mostly Israelis, released from captivity in return for the release of three times as many Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. So far only one kidnapped woman has been rescued by troops. There are still about 130 in Gaza that Hamas wants to sell at a higher price given Israel's willingness to negotiate a second exchange. It is unclear how many of these hostages are still alive. That same Saturday, the fundamentalist group released a statement claiming to have lost contact with those responsible for guarding five of the kidnapped people. Spokesman Abu Obaida later assured that Hamas believed that these hostages had died in an Israeli bombing attack.
The Islamist group sees itself in a position of strength. Its leaders are aware of the enormous internal pressure Netanyahu is under to secure the release of the remaining hostages. Especially because Israeli soldiers killed three of them last week because they mistook them for combatants. Moved by the social outrage the incident had sparked, Netanyahu abandoned his refusal to negotiate a new deal and returned to contact Qatari mediators. But the conversations are blocked. Hamas has raised the stakes and is no longer content with a new ceasefire, but is calling for “a permanent ceasefire.” The Islamists are also demanding the release of key Palestinian leaders, including the most popular in the occupied territories, Marwan Barghouti. It would be a propaganda victory that would further strengthen his support among Palestinians.
“The top priority is the release of the hostages, but not if the price is a permanent ceasefire,” Milstein continued. “That would mean that the existential threat to Israel from Hamas remains,” he added. “Netanyahu has much less support than he did on October 7th because many people blame him for the attacks and the ensuing conflict and are calling for his resignation. But at the same time, the majority of Israeli society insists on continuing the war. “It's a strange situation. Society appears to be stronger than its leaders and appears ready to continue a harsh military offensive, while at the same time feeling deep dissatisfaction with its political leaders.” Thousands of Israelis demonstrated this Saturday evening in Habima Square in central Tel Aviv and called for elections to be held, while in the coastal town of Caesarea, about 60 kilometers north of Tel Aviv, several hundred more people took to the streets calling for Netanyahu's removal.
The Waxman clock that runs the fastest, however, is the diplomatic one. The message from the international community calling for containment is becoming increasingly important. Gradually, Israel's key allies – the US, the UK, Germany and France – toughened the tone. Given its initial reluctance to agree to a ceasefire, Washington increasingly demanded that Israel scale back its offensive. On December 12, President Biden clashed with Netayahu by causing Israel to lose “support” because of his “indiscriminate” bombings. His defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, traveled to Tel Aviv to iron out differences but used the opportunity to make clear that the war must move into a new phase of “low-intensity operations” that save civilian casualties. This Saturday, Biden spoke again with the Israeli prime minister in a telephone conversation in which the situation in Israel and Gaza was discussed, the White House said, without revealing further details.
In key international forums, Washington continued to present itself as Israel's main ally, for which it is also the most important arms supplier. However, a symbolic statement was made this Friday. The US did not resort to the UN Security Council veto in favor of Israel and supported (with its abstention) a resolution calling for “urgent action to immediately enable safe and unhindered humanitarian access.” They were also asked to “create the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.” Although the approved text was previously lowered, Secretary of State Antony Blinken worked closely with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to advance it.
Waxman concludes that Israel is acting in Gaza “without really taking into account the ticking of these clocks.” “The army and the government think they can take the time they need, but that ignores the economic, humanitarian and diplomatic realities. Continuing to do so would come at a high cost to Israel, which will only increase over time. Also in internal public opinion. “The longer this continues and military casualties increase, the more questions will arise about whether the goals are achievable.”
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