What does the future hold for Vladimir Putin? Former secret service chief Christopher Steele sees the Kremlin despot’s political end coming.
Christopher Steele, head of the Russian office of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) between 2006 and 2009, has been warning the West about Vladimir Putin for years. After the Western disaster in Afghanistan, the Kremlin chief feels buoyant – there are still no signs that he is interested in peace, and Putin cannot be trusted to keep his word. But the war in Ukraine will mean the political death of the Russian head of state. “He’s going to have to give up power,” predicts Steele.
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In an interview with “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, the Briton explains why Putin could have miscalculated in this conflict: On the one hand, he did not expect the West to unite and adopt such harsh sanctions against his country. On the other hand, he said that a large part of the Ukrainian population would welcome the Russians as liberators.
“He Lives in His Bubble”
Apparently, the Kremlin chief misjudged the situation due to bad intelligence, says Christopher Steele. Britons aren’t surprised that Putin doesn’t want to hear the truth. Admittedly, there are indications that Putin has been warned against such a major intervention by advisers as well as by the Russian diplomatic apparatus. “But he’s been living in his bubble for a long time. The corona pandemic has exacerbated that,” says Steele.
Steele considers it a mistake for the West to have cooperated economically with Putin in recent years. “In fact, we became dependent on him for oil and gas and even financed his armed forces. Putin did not see all of this as a basis for peaceful coexistence, but interpreted it as a weakness of the West.”
“This war is very, very expensive”
Steele therefore thinks economic sanctions are good. Russia cannot survive this for long, “the economy is too weak for that,” he says. “And this war is very, very expensive.” Furthermore, preventing the Russian ruling class from “traveling, buying luxury goods, sending their children to Swiss boarding schools” could soon have an effect.
Christopher Steele was head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) Russian bureau for three years. TOLGA AKMEN / AFP / picturedesk.com
It could be that Putin will be replaced in the future by someone “from his immediate neighborhood” and with a slightly different profile “who can make a deal with the West.” The 69-year-old would demand – as is traditional in Russia – some sort of immunity and then “settle into one of his palaces”, Steele surmises.
Military ‘not ready for mass suicide’
The former secret service agent does not believe he is turning to nuclear weapons out of desperation. “He has kids, he’s rich.” While Putin has “every interest in keeping this apocalyptic story out of the trap,” the Russian military is unlikely to be ready to carry out a nuclear strike. “These people are not ready for mass suicide,” says Steele.
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The former MI6 official speaks out categorically against the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. “I don’t think it would be good to intervene in this conflict with military means. It would end in catastrophe and possibly lead to a third world war.”
Time of 20 minutes of the navigation account04/02/2022 11:02| Act: 04/02/2022, 11:34