Ukraine and NATO – a tug of war that lasts years, the end of which is completely open. A specialist analyzes whether there is still a chance.
It was a trigger for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine – or at least Russian ruler Vladimir Putin used it as justification. Before its invasion, Russia had stated to NATO that Ukraine belonged to Russia and that it wanted a written guarantee that NATO would not accept any other Eastern states. The situation was explosive for Putin because shortly before the Kremlin’s invasion order, a small majority of Ukrainians supported joining NATO. Since 2014, Ukraine has been fighting in the east of the country against Russian-backed pro-Russian rebels who have separated from the rest of the country into “people’s republics”.
Ukraine has been waiting to join NATO for 15 years
Russia feared that Ukraine would be able to take stronger action against pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine with closer ties to NATO. “When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian army was still a shadow of its former self,” says Benno Zogg, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich. Russia’s aim was hardly to conquer new Ukrainian territories, but rather to tie Ukraine more closely to itself. “In Russia’s opinion, Ukraine is on the wrong path with its interest in NATO,” the expert said at the time. The Russian Foreign Ministry has also repeatedly called for the withdrawal of NATO troops from Romania and Bulgaria.
Ukraine has been waiting for around 15 years to join NATO, which was promised at the time. After much back and forth, NATO states agreed in mid-July 2023 that Ukraine should definitely be included in the defense alliance – “if the allies agree and certain conditions are met.” Concrete details are still pending since then. Historian and author Mary Elise Sarotte of the Johns Hopkins School in Washington weighed in on how realistic NATO membership is for Ukraine Friday night on ORF “ZIB2” with host Margit Laufer.
“Putin’s willingness to use force has steadily increased”
“Nothing justifies what Putin is doing now in Ukraine,” said the expert – she had “great respect for the courage of the Ukrainians.” In the tug of war over Ukraine’s accession to NATO, Sarotte then clarified one of Putin’s lies. NATO was allowed to expand, Russia itself signed the relevant treaty, ratified it and received money for it – even if it now claims otherwise.
The Kremlin has always wanted to “rewrite history” with Russia as the winner, Sarotte said. And Putin’s “willingness to use violence has steadily increased” – we should have said “stop” sooner. According to Sarotte, the end of the Cold War would have been the time to establish relations with Eastern European states, Ukraine and Moscow. The West could have been able to establish better, long-term relations.
“Ukraine should join NATO, but only when it returns to firm borders”
There was a big discussion at the NATO summit in 2008 about whether Ukraine could join NATO. And then a compromise solution emerged that was “the worst of all solutions,” a compromise with no date and no fixed plan, Sarotte said. This left Putin “infuriated” and “the West should not have done this”, said the historian. Now, in time of war, it is necessary to help Ukraine “reach militarily defensible borders”.
If this can be achieved, Ukraine should join NATO as soon as possible, and then a defensive line could be drawn towards Moscow with the help of NATO, Sarotte said. It was also “a serious mistake” on the part of the West not to have reacted more sharply to Russia’s capture of Crimea in 2014, for example, by bypassing Russian energy sources at that time. Sarotte concludes that security commitments to Ukraine are currently lacking, saying that Ukraine should “join NATO”, but only when it once again has “firm borders”.
Browsing account Rfi, time of 20 minutes 09/29/2023, 10:36 pm | Act: September 29, 2023, 10:38 pm