The Covid prediction consortium suggests paying more attention to the hospital floor than daily new infections when assessing the corona situation. As the number of patients hospitalized with Covid is a clearly defined variable and subject to less distortion than the number of infections, its change is more significant. Laboratory-confirmed cases would no longer reliably reflect the spread of the virus.
As an example of the divergence between reported new infections and hospital occupancy, the consortium referred to the latest developments in two federal states in its weekly forecast on Wednesday. In Vienna, normal ward occupancy rose from 179 to 312 between June 29 and July 18, which is an increase of 74%, while the seven-day incidence remained roughly constant at the level of 1,200 over the same period. Similarly, in Lower Austria, the seven-day incidence increased by 18% over the same period, while the occupancy rate in the normal ward also increased by 74%. In the earlier stages of the pandemic, on the other hand, the increase in the number of reported cases was always accompanied by corresponding changes in the hospital floor with an interval of several days.
The reason for the uncertainty is increasing limitations, such as different offerings and testing behaviors, “so that the resulting measurement numbers no longer reliably reflect the spread of the virus,” the consortium said. Large sections of the population should hardly or should no longer test in case of asymptomatic or mild courses in order to avoid quarantine.
Experts from the Vienna University of Technology, MedUni Vienna and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (GÖG) expect a moderate increase in reported new infections and hospital coverage over the next two weeks. Next Wednesday (July 27) 1,500 to 1,980 Covid patients are expected in the normal wards, in two weeks (August 3) 1,600 to 2,570. Today, Wednesday, 1,428 Covid patients had to be treated in normal wards and another 76 in intensive care units (ICU). According to the experts’ calculations, there should be 92 to 127 seriously ill people in the ICU next Wednesday, and then 100 to 164 in 14 days.
As far as the number of infections is concerned, the consortium expects up to 19,500 new infections by next Wednesday. The seven-day incidence should then be between 920 and 1,500 cases per 100,000 population. The lowest incidence is expected in Carinthia, with 680 to 1,100, the highest in Vienna, with 1,200 to 1,900. 14,014 new infections were reported on Wednesday, the seven-day incidence was 924.1.
(SERVICE – forecasts on the Ministry of Health homepage: http://go.apa.at/rOh9RTKh)