China can buy more Russian energy and give Moscow cash to help Vladimir Putin to deal with the storm of sanctions imposed by the West over the crisis in Ukraine, experts predict.
Putin’s decision to launch military action against Ukraine will lead to the United States, Britain and others NATO the allies are taking more sanctions against Russia.
Experts believe China is likely to help Russia “behind the scenes” with the level of support from the country Beijing potentially becoming an “influential factor in shaping the evolving crisis”.
However, China will have to “follow a thin line” as it tries to avoid damaging its ties with the West, and protecting trade is likely to be a key priority.
China may buy more Russian energy and give Moscow cash to help Vladimir Putin weather the storm of Western sanctions over Ukraine’s crisis, experts predict
Mr Putin and President Xi Jinping issued a statement in early February declaring that “friendship between the two countries has no borders”.
China and Russia have become closer in recent years as they both face growing tensions with the West.
Putin visited Beijing in early February for the start of the Winter Olympics.
At the time, he and President Xi Jinping issued a statement declaring that “friendship between the two countries has no borders.”
China has backed Russia’s opposition to NATO enlargement, while the two nations have accused the United States, the United Kingdom and others of adopting “ideological Cold War approaches” to international relations.
The statement pledged the couple to step up foreign policy coordination and protect common interests.
However, China did not publicly support Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, but instead called on “all countries” to “show restraint”.
Beijing said the situation in Ukraine was “the result of very complex factors” and “China always takes its own position according to the merits of the issue itself.”
Following the invasion of Ukraine, China is unlikely to publicly support Putin’s actions, but it is also unlikely to criticize the Russian president.
Experts believe China will help Russia as Western sanctions begin to bite.
This could mean that Chinese banks are giving money to Moscow and Beijing to buy more Russian oil and gas.
Tom Rafferty, a Beijing-based analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the Financial Times: “The level of Chinese support for Russia’s actions could be an influential factor in shaping the evolving crisis.”
Jakub Jakobowski, a senior fellow at the Chinese program at the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, told the paper: “Unless the West makes China a really significant price, China will still help Russia behind the scenes.”
However, many believe that China will want to avoid damaging its economic interests in the West, and this is likely to soften its support for Moscow.
Noah Barkin, an expert on European-China relations at the US research firm Rhodium Group, told Bloomberg that Beijing “will have to follow a thin line in this crisis.”
He said: “He will want to avoid openly criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, while reaffirming his support for the principles of territorial integrity and non-interference. The hotter the conflict in Ukraine, the harder it will be for Beijing to follow that line. ”
China has backed Russia’s opposition to NATO enlargement, as the two nations have accused the United States, the United Kingdom and others of adopting “Cold War ideological approaches” to international relations.
Meanwhile, Professor Steve Zhang, director of the China Institute for Oriental and African Studies (Soas), told the newspaper that China “does not want to see a war for Ukraine because it has strong economic and other ties with Ukraine.”
Growing tensions with the West are expected to accelerate Russia’s ongoing turn to the East when it comes to selling its oil and gas.
Russian energy companies negotiated new long-term supply deals with China in early February.
Gazprom has signed its second long-term gas agreement with China, which will allow the company to supply 10 billion cubic meters a year for 25 years through a new pipeline.
Russian gas supplies to China are reported to reach 48 billion cubic meters a year, but talks are under way to develop a third route, which will add another 50 billion cubic meters.
Oil company Rosneft has agreed to supply 100 million tons of crude oil to China within a decade, replacing an existing one that is leaking.
Demand for Russian energy in China is expected to increase in the coming years, while European demand is likely to decline.