STOCKHOLM, Jan 25 (Portal) – Sweden and Finland’s hopes of speedy NATO entry have met with an obstacle in the form of objections from Turkey, which has a veto right on joining the military alliance.
The three nations reached an agreement on how to proceed in Madrid last June, but Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Sweden in particular is not honoring the deal.
This week, Erdogan indefinitely postponed accession talks.
Of the 30 NATO members, only the parliaments of Turkey and Hungary have yet to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland, concerned for their security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
WHY IS TURKEY OBJECTING TO SWEDISH AND FINNISH MEMBERSHIP?
Turkey says Sweden in particular is harboring what Ankara says is hosting militants from the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984.
The PKK is classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey, Sweden, the United States and Europe.
Turkey wants Stockholm and Helsinki to clamp down on the PKK and another group they blame for a 2016 coup attempt.
In Madrid, Finland and Sweden agreed to step up crackdowns on terrorism, including stepping up extradition and deportation of suspected militants.
But Sweden’s courts have blocked some expulsions.
Tensions between Sweden and Turkey have also been exacerbated by protests in Stockholm, which Ankara says are hate crimes but fall under Sweden’s free speech laws.
“Sweden has addressed many of Turkey’s concerns and will continue to implement this trilateral memorandum…but it is clear at the moment that this is not enough,” said Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.
DOES TURKEY HAVE OTHER OBJECTIVES IN ENTRY BLOCKING?
Elections will be held in Turkey in May. Some commentators see Erdogan’s stance on NATO as an attempt to divert voters’ attention from a cost-of-living crisis and project an image as an international statesman.
Other commentators say he may want to use NATO ratification as part of a deal with the United States. Relations with Washington are strained by Turkey’s conflict with militant Syrian Kurds backed by the US in the fight against Islamic State.
Turkey also wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from the US, but faces objections from some congressmen.
WHY DO SWEDEN AND FINLAND WANT TO JOIN NATO?
Sweden and Finland have long had policies of formal military non-alignment, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a rethink.
Finland shares a 1,300 km (810 mi) border with Russia, and the Swedish island of Gotland is just 300 km (186 mi) from the home of the Russian Baltic Fleet in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
All countries consider NATO, with its collective defense clause, as the best way to ensure their security.
WHY DOES NATO WANT SWEDEN AND FINLAND?
Both have relatively strong armies. Finland has the capacity to mobilize 285,000 troops and 650 tanks. Sweden has a strong air force and a submarine fleet tailored to Baltic conditions. Strategically, the two countries are plugging a hole in NATO’s front line against Russia and allowing the alliance to project power into the Baltic region.
COULD FINLAND JOIN WITHOUT SWEDEN?
Technically yes, but defending Finland without strategic land access via Sweden would be difficult for NATO.
Sweden and Finland want to act together, but since Turkey’s anger is mainly directed at Sweden, Finland may lose patience with the process. The Finnish foreign minister and Swedish prime minister have said that joint membership is a priority and that Finland would only consider a different path if Sweden’s membership were permanently blocked by Turkey.
COULD NATO expel Turkey and allow Sweden and Finland to join?
There is no formal mechanism for suspending or expelling members in NATO’s founding document, and Turkey is considered a key strategic ally.
WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW?
Analysts believe the accession process will stall until at least Turkey’s elections are completed.
Even then, progress might be slow. Full implementation of the Madrid Agreement could take years, and Sweden has said some of Turkey’s other demands are impossible to meet.
Turkey’s national security concerns are not easily allayed, and Sweden’s and Finland’s ability to influence developments is marginal.
But Sweden, Finland and NATO want to avoid a lengthy process.
“Turkey’s actions now benefit Putin and … that should be problematic for the alliance as a whole,” Levin said.
Reporting by Simon Johnson in Stockholm, Huseyin Hayatsever in Ankara, Anne Kauranen in Helsinki, editing by Timothy Heritage
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