The Detroit Lions were busy in the early days of the free agent rigging period, but not quite as much as many expected.
Since the rigging period began less than 48 hours ago, the Lions have made the following roster changes (in chronological order):
These moves have raised some concerns among fans.
That’s a lot of re-signings from a 3-13-1 team. That’s a lot of annual contracts. Only one player was signed from outside the organization. The Lions have 76 players on a roster of 90; with 8-10 picks, there are only 4-6 spots left in the draft.
Why did the Lions choose this approach?
Short answer: Insurance. Long answer…
In any given off-season, NFL teams rotate about a third of their roster (about 17 players). At this stage, the Lions have replaced only one. The project will add 8-10 more names, bringing the total number up but still not reaching the average turnover level.
Then, of course, undrafted free agents will be added. Last year, the Lions finished the season with 10 UDFAs on their active roster or practice team. The addition of 10 more UDFA members seems optimistic. If it were at least half as much, the team would increase the turnover to 14-16 players, which is much closer to the expected average. The five UDFAs will also fill the remaining spots on the 90-man roster after accounting for draft picks.
But what if the Lions want to add more than 5 UDFAs and don’t do it in the wild?
Short answer: they are removing some of their insurance options. Long answer…
One of the benefits of re-signing players is that you know their capabilities, potential, and limitations. If a UDFA or a free agent appears that the Lions believe has a higher ceiling/minimum, then they may remove the less experienced player from the roster. In fact, the Lions have designed most of their contracts so that they can do this without penalty.
If you look beyond the top 38 contracts on the Lions list, only six contracts have any money guaranteed, and all of them have less than $85,000 in potential penalties. A little math will tell you that almost half of Lviv’s contracts have no guarantees.
So, we will most likely have an average level of roster turnover, and we will be able to release a group of players without being subject to restrictions. But how does it make us better?
Short answer: they leave their options open in the draft. Long answer…
Make no mistake, this Lions organization plans to build its foundation with a draft. Last season they laid the groundwork and created the perfect platform on which to build some budding superstars and some hidden gems.
They have the potential to add even more five-pick top 100 top players in this draft. With a roster currently consisting of three players per position, the Lions won’t get hung up on need and can simply pick the best player available to them.
For example, are they happy with Tracey Walker and Will Harris as the starting safety duo? They were last season. If the Lions have a chance to improve the seat next to Walker and move Harris to a hybrid security/corner role, they could easily jump at that option, but they don’t need to force it.
Are they satisfied with a wide receiver core of Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds, starting with Raymond, Quintez Ceph and Trinity Benson finishing out in depth? Maybe, but probably not. That’s why most observers expect the Lions to look to add a hit receiver in the draft. But then again, Detroit will not need to force this issue. To be honest, this is already an improved group compared to last season with the development of St. Brown and the addition of Chark.
Do lions have gaping holes? Absolutely. They could certainly add players capable of qualifying for starting roles in safety, wide receiver, linebacker and EDGE. But with insurance options in place, the front office won’t have to look for a player or position and can simply take the best available player to refresh the roster.
The Lions could certainly add more players as free agents and there are still plenty of talented players on the market. However, it looks like the goal of leeway for the second year of the restructuring is to give them the flexibility to improve during the draft in the most efficient way possible.