Whether you’ve played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are trying it out for the first time, this weekly column takes a look at the DFS landscape and shows who I like to build lineups around, which stars I’m fading, undervalued plays and bargains – Bin options to help you build a better team.
Constellation building blocks
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($31) @ Los Angeles Chargers
St. Brown has averaged 14.3 goals in his last three games and should be fully recovered from his nagging foot problem following Detroit’s bye. He scored all of his touchdowns away from home this season and is allowed to play indoors a favorable matchup this week. The chargers have I recently stopped running, but have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. St. Brown is one of the league leaders in Yards per route run against the pressa cover that LA uses at one of the highest odds in the league.
The Lions have one of the highest implied team numbers in a fast-paced matchup this week, making St. Brown a DFS building block.
Christian McCaffrey ($40) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
McCaffrey should be healthier after suffering an oblique injury. He could also set an NFL record with his 18th straight game with a touchdown if he hits paydirt on Sunday. CMC is averaging 19% more fantasy points (0.5 PPR) than the No. 2 RB (Travis Etienne) this season despite overcoming a painful injury and an incredibly difficult four-game stretch against tough run defenses has behind him.
Jacksonville also defended the run well, but the Jaguars allowed the most receptions (7.5) and the third-most receiving yards (49.4) to their running backs. The 49ers are averaging the second-most yards per play and EPA/play and have a healthy team score heading into Week 10. San Francisco is also hoping to get star LT Trent Williams back, so CMC should be worth his high salary.
DeAndre Hopkins ($26) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Titans name Will Levis the team’s new starter is big news for Hopkins, who did it the fourth lowest catchable target quota this season. He caught three touchdowns in Levis’ NFL debut and then saw 11 scores last week when Hopkins had the third-most unrealized air yards (128) while being shadowed by breakout corner Joey Porter Jr. more than any other WR in the league.
Tennessee gets a top-notch pass funnel Tampa Bay defense this week that absolutely shuts down the run, but for 9.2 YPA, a 9:1 TD:INT ratio and by far the most passing yards last month. The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season and could be without CB Jamel Dean (concussion), so D-Hop is a strong DFS option.
Star to fade
Derrick Henry ($28) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The emergence of Will Levis should benefit Henry in the long run, but he has a tough matchup this week. The Buccaneers have given up the fourth-fewest EPA/rush and second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Despite a tough schedule, Tampa Bay has only allowed one back to reach 70 rushing yards and none have scored 15.0 fantasy points (0.5 PPR). Teammate Hopkins appears to be the better DFS play this week.
Undervalued options
Joe Mixon ($23) vs. Houston Texans
Mixon remains inefficient but is a top 10 RBs expected fantasy points per game. He could be particularly busy on Sunday with Ja’Marr Chase struggling with a back injury and Tee Higgins out after suffering a hamstring injury during practice on Wednesday. The Bengals are touchdown favorites at home and have one of the highest implied team totals of the week (thanks a now healthy Joe Burrow).
It should be noted that Houston has been defending the run much better lately, although Rachaad White still finished as the fantasy team’s best defender last week anyway. Beyond that, the Texans are struggling a lot of defensive injuriesso Mixon appears to be undervalued at a salary outside of the top 10 RBs.
Chris Olave ($19) @ Minnesota Vikings
Thanks to Derek Carrs, Olave continues to lead the league in unrealized air yards second lowest catchable target rate (And I only see a few layups). But he set himself up for a series of targets this week against a Minnesota defense that’s difficult to compete against. The Vikings have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league and have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Carr has also performed much better away from home (7.5 YPA) than at home (5.9 YPA), and this matchup should be fast-paced. Perhaps Olave’s salary is reasonable given his QB’s inaccuracy issues (WR18), but his volume and matchup this week make him a good DFS player.
Marquise Brown ($15) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Brown ranks in the top 12 in air yards and targets, but has done so the third lowest catchable target rate. Kyler Murray will return from knee surgery this week, which is significant for Brown. Hollywood was a top-5 fantasy WR last year with Murray and without DeAndre Hopkins, averaged 12.8 targets, 7.2 catches and 97.0 yards with three touchdowns over five games.
Murray may be rusty and Brown will be playing against a lot of AJ Terrell, but he’s undervalued at WR39 in DFS this week.
Bargain Bin
Juwan Johnson ($10) @ Minnesota Vikings
Johnson posted season-highs in snap% (74) and route% (71), including three red-zone scores, during his second game back from injury last week. He gets a Vikings defense that is stingy against the run but has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Johnson is a DFS punt option at tight end this week.