Lamar Jackson was outstanding once again, but it didn't show up in the fantasy stats. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
Five things that are important to me
A typical game from Lamar Jackson
Cris Collinsworth said it best late in the game when talking about Lamar Jackson and his MVP candidacy. It's hard to quantify what Lamar Jackson brings to this Ravens offense. There are very few teams where you watch the offense and the entire vision of what the unit is even trying to do collapses when you imagine another guy under center. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson are in that little circle.
Rarely does fake football perfectly describe a player's performance on the field, and that's definitely the case for Jackson. He's had a demonstrably hilarious fantasy football season. Well, at least the people who didn't include him in the squad can muster a laugh.
Every week it feels like you're watching Jackson dodge sacks, throw throws with wild arm angles into impossible windows, and make some of the best decisions while battling in the open field… and then watch the fantasy Box score and he only has 15 points or so. It was a mysterious season.
Week 15 was another entry in this diary. Jackson wasn't perfect, but he still contributed a lot to the offense.
Almost every other quarterback comes out of this Week 15 game with five to seven sacks. Jackson only needed three and sustained several drives to help this team win. His development as a scrambler continues to be impressive. He's probably not as fast as he used to be, but even so, Jackson almost never runs at full speed like he did in 2019 or 2020 because he's now much better at setting up runs, creating blocks, and creating lanes with his vision. Several of his fourth-quarter runs against the Jaguars were fine examples of this development.
The passing stats were a bit disappointing in Week 15. If you're trying to put him in the MVP race, it'll be hard to compare his aerial performance to a Brock Purdy-type. That's why these conversations about quarterbacks need to be much more nuanced. The 171 passing yards simply don't tell the whole story of his game.
In my opinion, this win against the Jaguars was an outstanding win for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. And he's not exactly the best thing about this team. The defense is as stifling as ever and Todd Monken has changed the way the scoring unit does its job. But when you watch the Ravens play, it's clear that they owe much of what they're able to accomplish to the No. 8 quarterback.
James Cook adds a new dimension
How many times in the last few years have we seen a blowout Bills victory and Josh Allen doesn't fit the bill? I can't remember many instances, but this is the case in week 15.
I would hardly say Allen did nothing, but I understand the feeling. The defense put in a monstrous performance against an offense that has been firing on all cylinders for nearly two months. And on offense, Allen took a backseat to James Cook.
The second year was more than electrifying against Dallas. He easily surpassed his previous career high with 25 carries for 179 yards and a score, while he had two catches for 42 yards and another score. The use of passing plays continues to seem much more deliberate and well thought out under Joe Brady, but it was the rushing performance that was a true revelation for Cook.
He's been running well lately, but this was a different level. Cook's vision of finding trails of savings came into its own. This is a high-level type of rush from a guy who is classified as a space back. That vision coupled with the explosiveness Cook has in his legs is simply an unfair combination.
Cook's emergence as a difference-maker was a big win for those who drafted him later on the fantasy roster. It changed the equation for this Buffalo offense. This group didn't have a traditional running game to lean on to close out games, let alone the counterpunch they so desperately needed to Allen and the passing game. Cook becomes that guy. It's changed the nature of this offense and is just another reason why this team is so dangerous – if they get to the postseason.
David Njoku took over the game
I know I've talked about some of Joe Flacco's receivers getting better downfield throws. That's all still true, but tight end David Njoku was the main beneficiary of Flacco's run as Cleveland's starter.
In the last two weeks, Njoku has scored 22 goals and scored three times. On Sunday, he enjoyed his first 100-yard game since October 10, 2021. He showed the kind of elite talent that made him such an enticing prospect back in 2017, the talent that we knew was in short supply simmered beneath the finish line.
According to Next Gen Stats, Njoku averaged just 5.8 air yards per target. He's been a factor under center all season, but because Flacco has shown that you have to respect the entire field when he's under center, the short area is much less congested. This allows the giant tight end to break tackles and break open lanes.
It's all coming together.
I was a little worried that Njoku might be asked to stay inside and do some extra blocking this week, with Cleveland extending to third-string right tackle and backup left tackle. The 14 goals clearly show the opposite. Kevin Stefanski knew this would be a pass-heavy game plan against a strong Bears run defense and with those injuries on the line. And if that were the case, there would simply be no way to do that without involving someone who plays like Njoku has lately.
David Njoku appears to be one of the right answers at the tight end position this fantasy season, and that's in large part because the offense has taken its true form under Joe Flacco.
What a sentence.
Jaylen Waddle dominates without Tyreek Hill
We've all marveled at Tyreek Hill's performance on the Dolphins' offense. Rightly so. But when someone has a season like this, usually either the entire offense is setting records or a teammate is performing below expectations.
The latter was the case in Miami and Jaylen Waddle was the victim.
Waddle was a near-universal second-round fantasy football pick in August. He hasn't been a disaster or anything, but he's a fringe top-20 receiver this year. This is certainly a disappointing season.
It's worth thinking more deeply about how much of this is simply a result of Hill being an unstoppable force this season. It's hard to blame the Dolphins for building the offensive layer around Hill when he's a run-happy player. We must also acknowledge that Waddle has struggled with multiple injuries this season. Waddle's lack of production may be nothing more than circumstantial. At the same time, I think it's fair to question whether Waddle was to blame for some of this. In my opinion, Waddle is a truly outstanding number 2 receiver – not really the true 1B guy his summer ADP described him as. That's fine, it's not really a blast at all, but it might say something about what's happened this year.
If Week 15 was any indication, it could all just be circumstantial.
With Hill sidelined for the first time this season, the Dolphins defeated the hapless New York Jets and Waddle dominated the passing game. Waddle had a season-high 142 yards rushing on nine receptions. No other Dolphins player had more than 32 yards or four targets.
Waddle averaged 8.6 air yards per target, according to Next Gen Stats. He owned a ridiculous 91.2% stake in Tua Tagovailoa's Air Yards. Waddle was the passing play on Sunday.
Despite being fast for days, Waddle isn't as good at separating people or getting press coverage as Hill, who is not only a ridiculous distance runner but also the fastest man in the sport. He can almost match Hill in the run-after-catch game. Waddle averaged 9.2 yards per reception after the catch on Sunday.
For a team that suffered a major stumble just last week and entered this week without its best player, it must have been a welcome sigh of relief to see the young star receiver step up in such a manner. Those dynasty managers who list Waddle among their top 10 long-term receivers likely felt the same comfort.
The Bucs' offense
After a decisive win over the Green Bay Packers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now have an 81% chance of making the playoffs and a 66% chance of winning the NFC South, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. This feels right at this stage.
No one coming from the NFC South will be a real contender. All three Falcons (more on that in a moment), Saints and Bucs are deeply flawed teams. But among these teams, the Bucs have the most compelling offensive unit. It fits well with a defense that invites scoring attacks, allowing for compelling games, albeit difficult ones for Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield is not a long-term solution for this team behind center. Nevertheless, he is a courageous player who competently represents the diversity of playmakers in this squad. We know the type of player Mike Evans is at his best and he's having a fantastic season before potentially hitting free agency. Evans scored his 11th touchdown of the season in Week 15. Chris Godwin had a quiet season, taking a backseat to his future Hall of Fame teammate, but delivered a dominant game with 155 yards. He repeatedly tore the Packers apart on crossing routes and made plays with the ball in his hands.
We knew these guys could play well, but the most significant development came in the backfield.
The Bucs stuck with Rachaad White when he wasn't performing well early in the season. He has turned his season around, averaging more than four yards per carry over the last four games. In Week 15, he completed another 20-plus carries, catching both goals for 50 yards and a score. White owns a fantasy football goldmine and continues to progress as a player.
We'll have to watch one of these NFC South teams in Round 1 of the NFL playoffs. All in all, I'll use the Bucs' offense as a chance to make things interesting. That's all we're looking for.
5 things I don't care about
The Jaguars' theoretical advantage
Maybe I'll just be slow to adapt. Perhaps everyone else has long since given up hoping that the Jaguars will reach the optimistic end of their full-season projections. With a loss to another AFC playoff team in Week 15, I'm officially closing up shop and giving up on hope.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense will go down as one of the most disappointing units in the NFL this season.
There are a lot of things going wrong with this device. There isn't just one thing that's driving her into this hole. The offense has been a broken unit all season. Forget what any metric tells you, this group absolutely cannot pass long enough for plays to develop downfield. Don't look at Travis Etienne's fantasy football rankings, this was one of the least efficient rushing teams all season.
Brutal stat of the night: Exclude Lawrence's 41 rushing yards and the Jaguars are outrebounded on the ground 204-41
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) December 18, 2023
The receiver room has struggled with injuries all season and is not a consistent unit. Doug Pederson's handing over of play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Press Taylor was a mistake at the time and was never turned around. This was perhaps the most serious mistake and doomed the season before it even started.
All in all, I’m ready to have “the talk” about Trevor Lawrence.
He's likely playing with some injury – the Jaguars also placed him in the concussion protocol after the SNF loss to the Ravens – after he was bent over the middle on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. However, many of the mistakes he made on Sunday were consistent with his entire season.
Lawrence makes far too many mistakes. Fumbling is no longer a problem at this point. It's a shocking reality of his game. He often feels like he's either playing too fast or making passes too late, causing open windows to slam shut. Ball placement and accuracy were crippling problems on Sunday Night Football. It was like that all season long. He's not a bad player, but I don't see an argument that he was a teammate to the extent that he was elevated like many of the great quarterbacks in the game.
For a team that had all the advantages in the world at the start of this season and met all the requirements for promotion, this season is a massive disappointment. The AFC South division title shouldn't be in doubt, and yet here we are. The Jaguars have no one to blame but themselves — and the blame starts at the top.
Controversy over Brock Purdy's MVP chances
Run away. Hide from it. Brock Purdy, who is creating distance in the MVP race, is still coming.
Purdy enjoyed another extremely productive game with 9.7 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. Especially in the context of what happened to the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott in Buffalo, this is just another moment for Purdy to pad his resume. This applies regardless of the opponent.
As for that resume, quarterbacks with that kind of resume on paper typically win MVP every time, as Dalton Del Don was keen to point out last week.
Expect Purdy's chances of winning the award to increase after Week 15, and you'll just have to avoid fighting it. Go outside. Read a book. Don't let yourself get sucked into the muck and swamp. Remember that the odds have no meaning and the season is not over yet. We still have a few weeks until the story is finished and the true winner of this award is revealed. If you're so stubborn, Purdy shouldn't take this home.
With that in mind, Purdy took the time to cast his vote after this game:
I can't contradict him. There is no doubt that Purdy has transformed the 49ers' offense and gotten more out of it than his predecessors. He's undoubtedly a damn good quarterback. However, it is no coincidence that the rise of Purdymania overlaps almost perfectly with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey and his full integration into the offense. He is, was and was the straw that stirs the drink.
Before you try to argue against McCaffrey's candidacy because of his position, please check your dogma at the door. He impacts the game in a way that no other player with “RB” next to his name can dream of. Unique is the bare minimum to describe his influence.
The problem is that that award seems to have morphed into “quarterback on the best team.” That's why Purdy will continue to be at the center of the discussion. He himself played so well that it's hard to argue that he shouldn't be one of the first names mentioned as favorites. Well, don't.
Is there a reason to continue playing Kadarius Toney?
I rarely advocate for someone to lose their job, but I cannot for the life of me understand why the Chiefs continue to play Kadarius Toney.
His punt return is a big reason they won the Super Bowl last year. They gave up a third-round pick to get him. He's electric when you get the ball in his hands.
The last part was a critical issue this season.
Toney has been a net negative for the Chiefs far too often this season. He gave the opponent big plays, he wiped the Chiefs' highlights off the board and dropped far too many perfect, routine passes from Patrick Mahomes.
Some of these mistakes are something you can live with at the wide receiver position. It happens to everyone in spurts, even to some of the best in the league. The problem for Toney is twofold. First of all, this is a long series of mistakes that have dogged him throughout his career. That's him. Second, he's never proven to be someone who can do the simple things at the position – run good routes and be open – to make the mistakes that are worth living with.
At some point, the Chiefs will have to say “enough already” to what they theorized Toney would be for them. There are no good answers behind him, but he has become a net negative at this point, and honestly so much of his film over the last two seasons showed that this was coming no matter what the GM or anyone else said team tried to sell to you this offseason.
Sam Howell's Fantasy Season
It was downright hilarious to see Jacoby Brissett finally get some meaningful playing time this season and immediately get the ball to Terry McLaurin up the field. You almost forgot what it looked like.
It was a lot of fun to put my foot down all season with “Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards, Terry McLaurin should produce.”
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 17, 2023
Sam Howell's temporary production was always empty calories. I understand why the team wanted to stick with a young quarterback, but it still strikes me as odd that this coaching staff never considered Brissett. While he's not a perfect quarterback, he's proven to be a competent guy who can keep the ship afloat. They gave him a decent contract this offseason and never seemed to think he could be a stopper down the drain as this season eluded them.
All Washington needed was a player so steady to get the ball to their great trio of receivers and revolve the entire operation around their Pro Bowl WR1. They've been a long way from that operation so far this season, and Week 15 was the ultimate proof.
There was a lot at stake for these personnel. Ron Rivera probably needed a miracle to save his job under the new ownership, but the fact that the team was picked in the top 5 didn't help matters. This was Eric Bienemy's big audition to show he can get the edge over Andy Reid and get his name deep into the head coaching cycle.
When making these decisions, teams won't care how good Sam Howell was in fantasy football. You shouldn't care either.
The Falcons
He scored seven points against the Panthers. “Embarrassing” doesn’t even do the Atlanta Falcons justice.
This team had every chance to win the NFC South. They showed a good defensive performance and had the talent to be a dangerous unit on offense. Now the New York Times simulator gives them just a 7% chance of reaching the postseason.
In the end, they suffered exactly what everyone expected would be their downfall. Both were evident in Sunday's defeat against the worst team in football.
Almost no one believed that Desmond Ridder would be good enough to be this team's undisputed season-long starter. The only people who did were the ones who made that decision for the Falcons. Ridder spent another afternoon leaving plays on the field for an offense that does everything it can to get players open and make life easier for the quarterback.
Arthur Smith's biggest mistake may have been not offering Ridder a challenger, but his steadfast determination not to use the young stars he drafted along with Terry Fontenot is a close second. What Bijan Robinson played in Round 1 of the Fantasy Football Playoff against the worst run defense in the league was his true “masterpiece.”
Robinson had already taken a backseat to Tyler Allgeier in Week 15 before the rookie made a mistake in the second half. After that, he never touched the ball again – he barely played anymore.
When you're winning games, you can dismiss it all as just the whining of fantasy idiots drawing in their mother's basement. Even if that's stupid and you're wasting the prime years of people who should be cornerstones, hey, those are the rules.
Losing to the Panthers and blowing a completely winnable division allows us to have a real conversation about what's happening in Atlanta.
I don't know if the disaster that has unfolded this season is enough to convince management to strip Smith of the head coaching job, but this is his third season of defeat in that position . At the very least, there needs to be some difficult conversations about how this team gets the most out of the players it spends significant resources to acquire, and an examination of whether a true quarterback answer is being overlooked.
Failing at these jobs is a textbook example of how to create a losing culture.