You can watch Thursday Night Football, Chiefs vs. Broncos, exclusively on Amazon Prime Video at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Welcome back, Kansas City (and fantasy) fans!
Ball begins on the sixth Thursday of the season and this will be the second TNF matchup to feature the Chiefs. The first game to open the season against the Detroit Lions ended in a catastrophic defeat. However, it appears to be a lot easier for Kansas City to deal with – at least on paper and based on what we’ve seen through the first five weeks of regular season football.
Facing the Chiefs will be a team that has a former coach of the year and Super Bowl champion on the sidelines. The Denver Broncos, who had already traded a supposed franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson last season, didn’t really like that, so they relied on a coaching change to get their broken engine going again.
Welp.
The Broncos (1-4) are in last place in the AFC West, while the Chiefs (4-1), their TNF opponents, are ahead, having won their last four games after a season-opening loss to Detroit. That’s already a bad outlook for Denver, but in the past things have been even worse for them in their direct duels against Kansas City: The Broncos have lost 15 games in a row against their rivals since November 2015!
Needless to say, the Chiefs are the clear favorites here, with oddsmakers giving them a 10.5-point lead over Denver.
The point total of 50 is pretty high, and while this matchup may actually end in a bang, it’s fair to assume that Denver won’t allow Kansas City to give up 70 points (ahem), nor will the Chiefs actually put up an offense This level will be a unit that is having a little difficulty starting the season.
How do the Broncos and Chiefs get to their TNF match?
Long story short: The Chiefs are good and the Broncos are not. Long story in medium length: The Chiefs can attack and defend, but while the Broncos can score points, they have a defense that resembles Swiss cheese.
If you want a more detailed breakdown, you can find it here.
It all started in Week 1, of course, but you probably remember what happened in Week 3: The Miami Dolphins dropped 70 points to the Broncos. It’s not worth going through everything that happened back then, but you’ll get an idea of the defensive unit the Broncos put on display in their final game in September.
Things have gotten somewhat better recently as they have only allowed 59 points in their last two games combined! Progress, I guess? We’ll get into the key numbers of Denver’s defense below because that’s the main point to discuss in this TNF matchup, but you already know what’s coming.
However, the Broncos were able to score 121 points in Week 5, good for eighth in the NFL. They may be 1-4, but considering how poorly things have been going for them, they’re at least doing a somewhat respectable job on offense.
Kansas City comes from the completely opposite end of the spectrum. After losing their season-opening game (also in TNF, for the superstitious) to the Lions 21-20, they recovered smoothly and won their last four games without much trouble, aside from a minor scare at the New York Jets (23- 20). 20) in week 4.
The Chiefs are trying to overcome some offensive issues, mostly related to the lack of playmakers at their skill positions outside of TE Travis Kelce. The negative? Kansas City has scored 128 points in five games, just seven more than the Broncos. The positive? The Chiefs don’t need much more than a healthy Patrick Mahomes and a one-legged Kelce to overcome their opponents.
And Kansas City’s defense, fifth in points allowed, does more than enough to keep the offense going.
Threatening comparison: The Chiefs have allowed 59 points in their last four games combined, and the Broncos, as noted, have only done so in the last two games after allowing 70 against the Dolphins three weeks ago.
TNF Week 6: Injury Report
Kansas City welcomed everyone back to practice in a limited or full capacity this week, including starting tight end Travis Kelce (limited) and wide receiver Kadarius Toney (full participant starting Monday).
Kelce suffered a sprained ankle in the Chiefs’ win against Minnesota last Sunday. He briefly left the game in the first half, but returned after halftime and completed a 10-catch, 67-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Vikings, helping his team win. The Chiefs lost the only game he didn’t play in this season (Week 1), but all signs point to the tight end being available on TNF.
Whether or not head coach Andy Reid and Kelce want to take any risks in a relatively easy matchup is a whole other discussion. The only thing we know is that he was listed as “questionable” after Wednesday’s final practice… and that Taylor Swift is reportedly attending that TNF game.
The Broncos are certainly happy to have their starting tight end back from injured reserve, as Greg Dulcich (hamstring) was scheduled to return on Tuesday after not appearing on Monday’s report. Still, it feels a bit rushed to have him back as soon as TNF starts. They did activate it from infrared range, but I don’t think it will play anything more than a decoy role for now.
Another player who has returned to Denver but will definitely play in this one is running back Javonte Williams (Quad). Sean Payton told reporters that he could have played last Sunday if it had been a postseason game, but the team instead decided to play it safe. Williams was limited on Monday (estimated), but returned as a full participant on Tuesday and was cleared to play after the final practice on Wednesday.
Injury reports prior to this week’s TNF do not list other players with fantasy eligibility in most leagues.
A statistic that can make the difference
The Broncos have the worst DVOA defense ever through five games, have allowed the second-most and THE most fantasy points to QBs and RBs, respectively, and are below average against WRs.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The Broncos defense is lost and they know it. They allow more than 36 points per game. They allow 263 passing yards per game, almost three passing touchdowns per game, and worst of all, they were even worse against the rush (yes, believe me).
Talking about the Broncos and how their defense is one of the most terrible ever assembled is already a boring topic, but it’s so relevant to this TNF matchup because the two teams are going head to head.
As things stand, and as mentioned above, the Chiefs have lost so many top wide receivers in recent years that the offense is essentially based on the Mahomes-Kelce connection. The rest of Kansas City’s pass catchers are your favorite flyer’s favorite flyer, if any.
That means Kansas City is going up against a team that doesn’t know how to stop opponents from beating them, that has no idea how to stop a running back room, all in a game they’re out of Should lead the game out (sorry, will). Let’s go.
The script is perfect for 1) Mahomes, who plays a few quarters and has to sit out almost the entire second half in favor of backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert (which was already the case in a blowout win in Week 3), 2) Travis Kelce, um this TNF rehab to expose the full extent of the injury he sustained last weekend and 3) the Chiefs running backs running down the clock while putting up monster numbers, again against a defense that is blind to opposing rushers and them never attacks.
Two players start, two remain on your bench
Starting: WR Rashee Rice (KC)
This game will probably get out of control. There may be a little less work for Patrick Mahomes in TNF than in closer games (which happened in Week 3 when the Chiefs beat the Bears), but the game starts out tied and you have to build a lead before you can finish it. not true?
Remember that when Travis Kelce plays, even when he’s making counts on the field, he’s definitely gobbling up targets and putting up numbers, so you’re always starting him. Aside from Kelce, though, I’d bet Mahomes gets a lot of looks at rookie receiver Rashee Rice this week.
Rice leads all Chiefs wide receivers with 24 targets and has already hauled in 17 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Rice has been targeted more than five times in four games and caught more than three passes in all of them. In one game or another he finished 2-for-2 with 20 yards.
The problem with Rice is that he has played 50% of the team’s offensive shots in just one game this season, but that could soon change, and this matchup looks to be an exceptional opportunity for Rice to prove that he can Hit worth is -up in use.
Mahomes was asked about Rice’s development on Tuesday and he was pretty optimistic about his development, noting that a stronger connection will quickly develop between QB and WR.
This could be the week that Rice finally gets going – don’t miss it.
Start: QB Russell Wilson (DEN)
The Broncos’ defense was terrible, but football is a game with 22 players, divided into units of 11 players, one of whom does the offense and another who does the defense. For that reason, Russell Wilson shouldn’t be a big concern getting into the starting lineup this week, as Denver’s offense has been quite solid through five games this year.
Wilson may not be playing at a Super Bowl and MVP level anymore, but he’s done more than enough to be considered a QB1 in most fantasy leagues. He has thrown passes for over 200 yards in three of his games this season. He has limited his interceptions to just two for 11 touchdowns and has caught passes for two or more scores in four games.
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While the rushing has been a bit up and down (he has carried the ball for one, 56, zero, 13 and 49 yards this season), there are some upsides as well. The Broncos won’t run the ball for the sake of it and kill the clock, but they do a better job of keeping Mahomes on the sideline. Even if the game is unfavorable, quick moves and scrambles should be used throughout the match.
With Jerry Jeudy stronger than he has ever been this season and Courtland Sutton still solid (but suffering from Jeudy’s presence), Wilson should put up numbers on Thursday.
Bench: RBs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN)
Williams is expected back on Thursday after training as a full participant from Tuesday. He didn’t play last Sunday due to a quadriceps injury (he practiced in the days leading up to Week 5, mind you), but he should be ready to go, as coach Payton confirmed.
However, the Broncos used their backup running backs heavily against the New York Jets last weekend when Williams was out. Senior Samaje Perine rushed the rock six times for 22 yards, catching four of five targets, a monster 73 yards. Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin had his second straight breakout game, largely confirming what he saw in Week 4.
It’s not risky to start Williams considering he still has the RB1 role in this backfield, but considering how good the backups have been, it’s safe to assume their roles and usage (mainly the by McLaughlin) will increase sooner rather than later. That alone calls for pause and benching Williams, at least for this match.
For the same reason, I wouldn’t recommend starting McLaughlin: there are plenty of capable rushers and the expected running back-by-commit approach to this game. However, I would still try to keep an eye on the rookie as he could finally take over the majority of the RB2 snaps after his great play over the last two weekends.
McLaughlin was limited to just 15 yards on five carries in Week 3, but had a slightly larger role (16 snaps) in Week 4, rushing the ball for 72 yards on seven attempts while returning all three targets thrown to him for 32 yards and caught a touchdown. The rookie made an encore performance last weekend (appearing in 21 snaps), rushing for 68 yards with nine totes to go and another touchdown while catching three of four targets for 21 yards.
Again, don’t risk this play on TNF as the Broncos will most likely come after Kansas City from behind and be forced to pass on a larger percentage of plays, but if McLaughlin is still available in your league (he’s on the roster in 62 percent of leagues). ), and performs solidly again, then don’t hesitate to contact your waiver as soon as possible to add him.
A player who should be sought as a potential waiver pickup
WR Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos (29% on roster)
At some point, something has to change with this team and the Broncos should at least want to know what they have in Mims, right?
Although the franchise is 1-4 and appears to be headed for another losing season, the latest reports out of Denver about wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton suggest the Broncos are refusing to engage in trade talks that include their starters the position should be included.
At some point they have to do something because they’ve been in this situation forever and they’re not going anywhere. In fact, they apparently already did that when they spent their first pick (a second-rounder) of the draft on Oklahoma standout Mims. Why do they hardly use it!?
Mims has only played about a third of Denver’s offensive snaps (he had 20 in Week 5), but he’s been fantastic (aside from last Sunday’s stinker, in which he only caught one target for four yards and a fumble). The rookie has been targeted more than twice in just one game, but has rushed for a team-leading 246 yards on 10 receptions (12 total), including one for a touchdown.
No player in the NFL with at least 10 targets through Week 5 has a higher yards-per-target average than Mims’ 20.5, with the next-best mark being a distant 15.6 Y/T.
Starting Mims is a bold move given his commitment, but his performance is impressive. If Denver realizes what they’re missing out on, don’t hesitate and grab Mims off your waiver wire in a split second.