Islamophobic and Eurosceptic radical Geert Wilders is expected to be the surprise winner of the Dutch elections.
In a dramatic result that will stun European politics, his Freedom Party (PVV) is expected to win around 35 of the 150 seats in parliament – more than twice as many as in the 2021 election, an early exit poll shows.
Frans Timmermans’ Labor-Green alliance came in second, winning 26 seats – a big jump from its current 17. Dilan Yeşilgöz, the successor to outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte as leader of the centre-right VVD, is on track to win 23 seats to gain, a loss of 23 seats to 11, according to the Ipsos exit poll for national broadcaster NOS.
A Wilders victory will potentially set the Netherlands on the path to a dramatic change of direction after Rutte’s four successive centrist governments. However, the question now is whether any other parties will join Wilders to form a coalition government as, despite becoming the largest party, he will not have an overall majority in parliament.
To the soundtrack of “Rocky,” Wilders greeted his supporters at a cafe on the Dutch coast with a broad smile. “The voters spoke tonight and said they are fed up,” he said.
“We will make sure that Dutch voters come first again,” he said in a classic PVV speech, saying the party wanted to work to stem the “asylum tsunami” by putting more money in people’s wallets and improve safety.
However, he also reached out to other parties and said now is the time to work together and find solutions.
However, his anti-Islamic rhetoric is still an integral part of the PVV’s government program. The party wants to ban mosques and the Koran and ban Islamic headscarves in government buildings. Wilders is also a die-hard Eurosceptic and is calling for a so-called “Nexit” referendum on leaving the EU.
“This election poll is historic; It is the biggest change we have ever seen in the Netherlands,” political scientist Tom van der Meer told national broadcaster NOS.
According to Van der Meer, three things could explain Wilders’ unexpected victory. “First, we have had a center cabinet for 11 years. In response, voters overwhelmingly went to the flanks. Secondly, migration was a big issue and voters quickly think of the PVV when it comes to this issue. Finally, VVD leader Yeşilgöz opened the door to the PVV as a coalition partner. The Netherlands has long been looking for a party that is more open than the VVD but can govern. Now that the door to the PVV is open, they have found it.”
Although Wilders won the most seats, he is unlikely to ultimately become prime minister.
Yeşilgöz said on Tuesday she would rule out supporting Wilders as prime minister if he won the largest share. And Pieter Omtzigt, whose newly formed party is expected to win 20 seats, has ruled out working with Wilders at all, saying his Islamophobic policies violate the freedoms of expression and religion enshrined in the Dutch constitution. Timmermans has also spoken out strongly against supporting Wilders.
Wilders’ PVV is holding its campaign party in a small café in Scheveningen, a beach town next to The Hague. The small room where the party is taking place erupted in cheers as the first outcome vote was announced.
The result is also a big shock for the PVV officials. The venue for the election night party was found just three days ago, after Wilders posted an unexpected rise in poll numbers.
The green-left alliance led by Timmermans is holding its election night party at a large venue in Amsterdam’s Westerpark.
Loud cheers filled the main room after the VVD’s defeat was announced, along with the alliance’s own poll results.
But afterwards there was loud talk in the room about Wilders winning.
This story will be updated.