ASPEN, Colo. — Some of the world’s top national security officials — from spy bosses to ambassadors to secretaries of defense — gathered here this week to offer predictions and recipes for a range of existing and potential global challenges.
Topics covered ranged from cybersecurity to food insecurity to Russia’s war against Ukraine. As is usual with such events, optimism was scarcer than doom and gloom.
Here are some key takeaways from this year’s Aspen Security Forum:
Fears that the West will collapse over Ukraine
High gas and food prices, not to mention the possibility of a long war, will surely wear down support in certain corners for Ukraine defending itself against Russia, some speakers warned.
Some Republicans have already spoken out against the big bailout packages for Ukraine, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) predicted that the share of the GOP – the “Trumpist base” – is likely to grow, especially “as long as we have this inflationary crisis.” in the West.”
Similarly dour was Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz, who said “war fatigue” was increasing, including in the Central European states.
“People may think that maintaining stability and peace in the world would cost them just a penny or just a dime – without any cost,” he said. “So there is a lot to be done to encourage the people, our societies, to support these policies.”
For now, the United States is stepping up military support to Ukraine following appeals from its leaders, including First Lady Olena Zelenska. US officials announced this week that the US would send more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to the Ukrainians, among other things.
Get ready – just in case – for a showdown over Taiwan
China’s Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang accused Washington of “undermining and blurring” its longstanding “one China” policy by sending more officials and weapons to Taiwan.
But the ambassador also said Beijing will “try our best for peaceful reunification because we believe it best serves the interests of people on both sides.”
The story goes on
The big question, of course, is when this “reunion” will happen. CIA Director William Burns said: “The risks of that will increase… the further you go in this decade.” Burns added that the issue is not so much if Chinese leader Xi Jinping wants to act as it is how and when.
British spy chief Richard Moore, who heads MI6, said he didn’t think Beijing’s military strike on Taiwan was inevitable, but “it’s important that we prepare accordingly.”
In any case, Western determination in Ukraine, combined with Russian mistakes, should set Xi’s alarm bells ringing as he considers what might happen if Taiwan were to be taken over, Moore and others noted.
For example, Chinese leaders should ask themselves “if maybe all the things my military is telling me about how great they are aren’t as true as they’d like them to be,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said.
One lesson Xi likely learned from Russia’s experience in Ukraine, Burns said, is that one must use “overwhelming force.”
Iran has to reveal something
In the Middle East and beyond, concern is growing over Iran’s nuclear advances, especially now that international negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran appear to be dead.
Several Aspen spokesmen have indicated that military action is a growing possibility.
Benny Gantz, Israel’s defense minister, said the country was building a military capability to confront Iran but preferred not to “jump into war.” “Should we be able to have a military operation if necessary to prevent this? The answer is yes. Are we building the ability? Yes. Should we use it as a last case? Yes,” Gantz said.
His concerns were echoed by a senior Bahraini official, Abdulla Al Khalifa, who would not rule out joining Israel – with whom it now has diplomatic ties – in a pre-emptive military campaign against Iran. “I believe that tackling the problem now, when an opportunity presents itself, is much better than tackling it later when it’s too late,” Al Khalifa said.
MI6’s Moore, meanwhile, said that while Tehran may drag out nuclear talks, he doesn’t think restoring the 2015 deal is serious. “I don’t think Iran’s supreme leader wants to make a deal,” he said.
Russia’s Limited Use of Cyber Attacks in Ukraine
US officials are still struggling to figure out why Russia has held back from unleashing the full extent of its cyber capabilities against Ukraine and its allies, even if Moscow hasn’t deserted cyber entirely.
Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser on cyber and new technologies, noted that “one of the possibilities” could be that Russia is not fully prepared to use its cyber arsenal. Neuberger said other options could be that Putin was deterred after Biden warned him of negative consequences. It’s also possible that Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen its critical infrastructure have paid off, she said.
“We don’t know for sure…but certainly something we’re watching very closely,” Neuberger told the Aspen crowd.
Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.) said he believes the world has yet to see Russia’s “full cyber might” and warned that Sweden and Finland joining NATO are tempting targets for future Russian cyber attacks.
Microsoft President Brad Smith noted that while Russia has held back, it has certainly used cyber as part of its strategy. Microsoft has seen Russia employ “destructive cyberattacks,” spying efforts and disinformation, Smith said. Microsoft released a report last month detailing such Russian operations.
“There’s a sort of view that Russia hasn’t taken many steps in Ukraine in terms of cyber,” said Matthew Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security at the Justice Department. “This is a myth and we are indeed seeing a hot cyber war in Ukraine being waged by the Russians.”
No get well card for Putin
The rumors that the Russian President is suffering from one or another illness are constant. In Aspen, they fired not one, but two intelligence chiefs this week.
“As far as we can tell, he’s way too healthy,” Burns said. His British counterpart, Moore, responded with less panache but equal certainty: “There is no evidence that Putin is seriously ill.”
Will this end the speculation? Probably not. But Putin himself dampened some of that this week by taking a brief trip to Iran, a rare excursion for a man who has remained largely isolated amid the Covid-19 crisis.
Toosi and Ward reported from Aspen. Miller reported from Washington.