The announced success is colossal. The Ukrainian army reportedly managed to shoot down fifteen Su-34s or Su-35s in two weeks, while destroying an average of only six per month since the start of the war. “February is the shortest month of the year, but our air defenders achieved the best results in shooting down Russian aircraft since October 2022,” the Defense Ministry said. These Russian aircraft are being used massively by Moscow to bomb the front line and Ukrainian cities.
The destruction of a single aircraft therefore represents an incalculable loss of military capability, but also significant costs of around $85 million. For example, this figure of 15 aircraft shot down would correspond to the loss of about 7.5% of the French Rafale aircraft fleet.
Problem: Ukraine has not provided evidence confirming its successes. However, the Ukrainian army does not skimp on images when it comes to demonstrating its superiority over Russia, such as the naval drone strikes that are documented in detail in videos every time they win.
After announcing this assessment in its reports of the last few days, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) clarified on Tuesday, March 5, “that it has accepted the Ukrainian information about the slaughter of several Su-34 aircraft “We have not been able to independently verify this in recent weeks.”
No fewer strikes were observed
From then on, two opposing theories circulate. Either Ukraine actually managed to destroy these aircraft, but cannot provide any pictures. Either Kiev is embellishing the situation a little in order to distract from the land battlefield, which is currently much less favorable.
In his daily update on March 4, observer @Escortert reminds that “according to the Ukrainian command, the seven-day rolling average of Russian air-to-ground attacks over the past 15 days has been 87 to 97 (today 90). ..” not to go underground after the alleged aircraft losses. However, fewer aircraft could have led to a decline in missile numbers, which is not observed. Escortert does not hesitate to call the Ukrainian announcements “confirmed wildcards”.
The Oryx website, which lists all visually confirmed casualties of both armies, reports only three Russian aircraft shot down in the last two weeks. Perhaps the weather makes it difficult to spot the wreckage with drones or satellites, or perhaps these Russian planes crashed far from the front and are difficult to locate. No image leaves any doubt about a Ukrainian communications operation. “Propaganda is always counterproductive when it is unrealistic because it reduces citizens’ trust in their armed forces,” she analyzes @Escort continues. And the loss of trust has a catch: it is difficult to reverse. »
Have Russian planes been hijacked?
But could Ukraine still have shot down those 15 Russian planes? Does she have the means to do this? The Ukrainians managed to bring a battery of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles close to the front in order to attack the Su-34 and Su-35 as far away as possible. However, it is a valuable weapon that is usually used to protect cities. Another idea has emerged in the last few days. According to Austrian air warfare expert Tom Cooper, interviewed by the Kyiv Post, the Ukrainian army could have gotten its hands on a destroyed Su-34 or Su-35 at the beginning of the war and exploited its weaknesses.
“A likely, but so far neither proven nor confirmed, explanation for the recent series of Sukhoi shoots is the compromise of sensitive defense electronics systems on board Russian aircraft and changes to anti-aircraft systems,” our colleagues write. To put it simply: The Ukrainians found a way to distort the radar of the Su-34 and Su-35 so that the Russian pilot no longer saw the missile approaching. A possible hypothesis, but it does not explain why no wreck was found.