That’s what matters. Ninety-four years of Oscar history have been digested and cross-examined to provide the critical answer: Which films and performances will win the Oscars on March 27th?
The sheer scale of its nomination tally puts Netflix this close to taking home the statuette for the Academy’s most prestigious award. Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog has won the most critics’ awards for best picture, and the film walked away with top honors at the BAFTA and DGA ceremonies, which have Oscar voter crossovers. However, some Academy members told Variety what feels like an even divide that they ranked it #1 in their preferred poll, while others ranked it at the bottom of that category.
Continue reading: Variety’s Awards Circuit Predictions Hub
Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” was the putative front-runner for months after its Telluride Film Festival debut. But after taking home a single BAFTA for Outstanding British Film, he’s operating on a grand piano and a prayer to win the ultimate Oscar honor. His best hope could be in the Original Screenplay category, or he could go down the Spotlight (2015) route and win two grand prizes, including Image.
Which brings us to Sian Heder’s “CODA,” the underdog who has won the hearts of industry voters. After winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for Cast Ensemble and the PGA Award, it has a good chance of winning all three nominated categories, including Best Picture.
Other predicted results include Will Smith becoming the fifth black actor to win Best Actor, in his case for King Richard. Meanwhile, Jessica Chastain could become the second woman to win Best Actress for a film she also produced – The Eyes of Tammy Faye. The first to do so was Frances McDormand, last year’s Nomadland award winner.
Troy Kotsur is expected to become the second deaf actor to win an acting Oscar for CODA, following his co-star Marlee Matlin’s victory in 1986’s Children of a Lesser God. Ariana DeBose could become the second Latina to win an acting award, after her co-star Rita Moreno for West Side Story.
“Encanto” might deliver a shocker in the original song to go along with its animated feature win. Songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda would become the 17th EGOT recipient and the third youngest.
“Dune” is expected to be the night’s biggest winner at five, but that number could go up or down depending on how popular “Cruella” is in costume design and “King Richard” in editing.
The international feature could be upset that The Worst Person in the World takes the award for Norway, despite Japan’s Drive My Car being nominated for picture, direction and adapted screenplay.
The keys to the documentary are in the hands of either Questlove for Summer of Soul or Jonas Poher Rasmussen for Flee, who made history with nominations in animation, documentaries and international feature films. Surprise DGA winner Stanley Nelson might even sneak in with “Attica.”
Here are the final predictions.
See individual pages for individual category predictions with full rankings.
best picture
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Might win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
Should win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappie
should have been here: “Come On, Come On” (A24) – Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White
Best Director
Will win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Might win: Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Should win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
should have been here: Mike Mills, “Come on, come on” (A24)
Best actor
Will win: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
Might win: Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick… Boom!” (Netflix)
Should win: Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick… Boom!” (Netflix)
should have been here: Simon Rex, “Red Rocket” (A24)
Best Actress
Will win: Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Might win: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
Should win: Olivia Colman, “The Prodigal Daughter” (Netflix)
should have been here: Tessa Thompson, “Passing” (Netflix)
Best supporting actor
Will winStarring: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
Might win: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast” (Focus Features)
Should win: Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
should have been here: Vincent Lindon, “Titane” (neon)
The best supporting actress
Will win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
Might winStarring: Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
Should win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
should have been here: Olga Merediz, “In the Heights” (Warner Bros.)
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Might win: “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
should have been here: “Come on, come on” (A24) – Mike Mills
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Sian Heder
Might win: “The Prodigal Daughter” (Netflix) – Maggie Gyllenhaal
Should win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Jane Campion
should have been here: “Tick, tick… Boom!” (Netflix) – Steven Levenson
Best Animated Feature
Will win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Might win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Netflix) – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
Should win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
should have been here: “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (20th Century Studios) – Sarah Smith, Jean-Philippe Vine
Best Production Design
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Patrice Vermette (Production Design), Zsuzsanna Sipos (Set Design)
Might win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Grant Major (Production Design), Amber Richards (Set Design)
Should win: “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures) – Tamara Deverell (Production Design), Shane Vieau (Set Decoration)
should have been here: “Being the Ricardos” (Amazon Studios) – Jon Hutman (Production Design), Ellen Brill (Set Design)
Best cinematography
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Greig Fraser
Might win: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Ari Wegner
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Greig Fraser
should have been here: “In the Heights” (Warner Bros.) – Alice Brooks
Best Costume Design
Will win: “Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jenny Beavan
Might win: “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) – Paul Tazewell
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan
should have been here: “The Harder They Fall” (Netflix) – Antoinette Messam
Best film editing
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Joe Walker
Might win: “King Richard” (Warner Bros.) – Pamela Martin
Should win: “King Richard” (Warner Bros.) – Pamela Martin
should have been here: “The Guilty One” (Netflix) – Jason Ballantine
Best make-up and hairstyling
Will win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
Might win: “Coming 2 America” (Amazon Studios) – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Donald Mowat, Love Larson, Eva von Bahr
should have been here: “Last Night in Soho” (Focus Features) – Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
best sound
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
Might win: “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios) – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
should have been here: “The Last Duel” (20th Century Studios) – Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Daniel Birch, Stéphanie Bucher
Best visual effects
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Might win: “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures) – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Gemstone and Dan Sudick
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
should have been here: “Eternal”
Best Original Score
Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Hans Zimmer
Might win: “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Germaine Franco
Should win: “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Alberto Iglesias
should have been here: “Spencer” (Neon/Topic Studios) – Jonny Greenwood
Best Original Song
Will win: “Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Might win: “No Time To Die” from No Time To Die (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Should win: “Be Alive” from “King Richard” (Warner Bros.) – music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
should have been here: “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Best Documentary
Will win: “The Summer of the Soul (or When the Revolution Couldn’t Be Televised)” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
Might win: “Flee” (Neon) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Should win: “Flee” (Neon) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellstrom, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
should have been here: “The rescue”
Best International Feature
Will win: “Drive my car” (Japan)
Might win: “The worst person in the world” (Norway)
Should win: “Flee” (Norway)
should have been here: “Titans” (France)
Best Animated Short Film
Will win: “Robin Robin” (Netflix) – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Might win: “The Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Should win: “Robin Robin” (Netflix) – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
Best Documentary
Will win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Might win: “The Queen of Basketball” (The New York Times) – Ben Proudfoot
Should win: “Audible” (Netflix) – Matt Ogens, Geoff McLean
Best Live Action Short Film
Will win: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed
Might win: “On My Mind” (The New Yorker) – Martin Strange-Hansen
Should win: “The Long Goodbye” (WePresent) – Aneil Karia, Riz Ahmed
optional screen reader