Caquiste activists voted with more than 95% confidence in François Legault when he was leader of the third party in the National Assembly with around twenty MPs. Now that he’s reached 90 points, he no longer has to worry about his score.
Posted at 1:29 am. Updated at 6:00 a.m.
Certainly not in terms of the economy, which remains the number one concern for a government of accountants. In fact, if Robert Bourassa were to return to Earth, he would no doubt be stunned to learn that as of January of this year, Quebec had the lowest unemployment rate of any Canadian province and the lowest in its history.
The prosperity gap between Ontario and Quebec – measured in terms of GDP per capita – has not closed, but has narrowed. But Quebec now has a higher median income among 25-54 year olds than Ontario and British Columbia. These catch-ups had begun before the CAQ came to power, but they continued.
Public finances are healthy, debt is under control and Finance Minister Eric Girard was able to roll back his plan to reform the pension system in time to avoid the kind of slip-up we are witnessing in France.
In short, Quebec has not become the country that flows with milk and honey, but economically it is doing quite well.
Things are going a little less well for the two major state tasks of health and education. So much so that the government has launched two fairly similar reforms of these two major networks.
Claiming to seek decentralization, Ministers Christian Dubé and Benrard Drainville are leading the largest centralization operation we have ever seen.
Two reforms that bear the hallmarks of CAQ governance: Eliminate as much as possible checks and balances and the possibility that a government decision can be challenged.
The problem is the same in both cases. We need to convince citizens that essentially administrative reform will produce results in emergency rooms and classrooms. Which is far from obvious.
Especially as the parliamentary committee dealing with Bill 15 begins to flag up any possible weaknesses or unforeseen implications of the reform. Be it the impact in the regions or the fact that it is a reform focused on the hospital and at the expense of the other actors in the network who provide local services. And, of course, almost everyone notices the centralization that comes with the creation of Santé Québec.
We will see if the reaction is the same when the Drainville reform is discussed in the parliamentary committee, but it is evident that these reforms will not pass easily and that community opposition is already very strong.
We cannot blame the government for trying when several previous governments lacked the courage. But that doesn’t guarantee success.
But the CAQ government’s current problems have their roots elsewhere. Especially projects that were campaign promises and where we wanted to be popular.
Let’s call them “napkin projects” because they look like they were written on a napkin or the back of an old envelope without the necessary checks being done.
The third link comes first, of course. Especially since we have proposed a new version of a public transport tunnel, without yet having a precise estimate of the cost or even the essential questions: we still do not know where we will build it, what type of tunnel it will be , and what will be the means of transport in the tunnel?
But there are other examples that undermine the government’s credibility. The retirement homes emerged directly from a CAQ advertising brochure for the 2018 campaign.
We have known for several months that construction costs have exploded. The cost of a room is now between 800,000 and over 1 million US dollars. With largely political decisions: on the island of Montreal, for example, only two are planned, but in the suburbs there would be more than fifteen – you can hardly see a connection with the election card!
Currently, due to staff shortages, they are often rather vacant and are sometimes used as temporary accommodation during the renovation of CHSLDs. As if to say: use the air conditioning and the large windows because it won’t last long!
We could also talk about 4 year old kindergartens moved to Greek calendars. Or Blue Spaces, those museums that were announced with great fanfare in 2021 and are no longer a priority.
Mr. Legault will earn the trust of his members. And his record – except perhaps in the environmental area – holds. But what is hurting him at the moment is not his governance, but the populist shenanigans and promises of his election campaigns.