© Nadine Studeny Martin Wolf spoke at Export Day 2023
… the three great shocks of the recent past:
We are living in a decade of major upheavals – both political and economic – which bring with them a high level of uncertainty. In addition to the financial crisis, the consequences of which are still being felt today, there have been three major shocks in the last four years, all of them interconnected. On the one hand, the pandemic with its consequences not only for health, but also strong economic consequences in the short and medium term, because we shut down entire economies. Nobody could have imagined this before, and therefore it had very disturbing consequences for world production and trade. This led to the first bout of inflation. Before that, central banks had been trying to bring inflation up for a long time. Now they are worried about getting it back. Today, inflation is largely back, fueled by the Covid crisis and the energy crisis, which did not start with the war in Ukraine. This combination of war and energy policy has substantial consequences for our everyday lives.
… the tendency towards indebtedness:
We have the most indebted global economy and the most indebted economies in history. States, especially in the west, face the problem that their economy is growing slowly, their population is aging rapidly, compulsory spending is correspondingly high, and resistance to higher taxes is very strong. As a result, politics is becoming more populist and nationalistic. We moved to another world.
… Lessons from recent years as a basis for looking to the future:
We don’t know exactly what will happen, how we will grow and what obstacles await us on this path. The last few years have shown us that. It is therefore very important to learn the right lessons from the experiences since the financial crisis – for example, that uncertainty has become a constant companion and resilience and robustness have become more important for any type of business. But there is a risk of new shocks.
… global change:
We are in the midst of one of the greatest transformations in global history. It is not just about economic shifts from the West to the East and Southeast, but also about power politics: China and the entire Southeast Asia region, where about half the world’s population already lives, will be the fastest growing economic region in the future. future.
… globalization and its future:
After Corona, we are not in an era of deglobalization, but there is a kind of “slowdown” – that is, a slowdown in the global interdependence of economy and society. The period of tremendous expansion in world trade that lasted until 2008 is over. Not a single major multinational trade deal has been signed in the recent past. In some regions there is even massive resistance.
… of Climate Change:
We live in a period of global warming. It is considered certain that the temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees in the next decade. This trend will continue.
… Artificial intelligence:
The enormous progress in communication technology has already changed many areas of life. We are still in the eye of yet another “big hurricane” caused by artificial intelligence, which will lead to an enormous change in knowledge and information.
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Martin Wolf is a British economist, journalist and publicist (recent book: “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism”). He is Associate Editor and Editor-in-Chief of the Financial Times. On this year’s Export Day, he recently reviewed the state of the global economy.