Even though the NFL season is only three weeks old, some teams already seem doomed to sink into the depths. The consolation prize of an enviable draft position to get your hands on a future franchise quarterback seems tempting, but can often become a poisoned chalice.
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Obviously there are teams that ate their black bread before experiencing a rebirth thanks to the draft. The Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes in 2017. The Bills with Josh Allen a year later. The Bengals with Joe Burrow in 2020.
Okay, but for the few home runs there are Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Rosen.
In recent days, heated fans of the Broncos, Bears and other undeserving basement tenants have been dreaming of the next draft in April.
The class promises to be strong, with a so-called generational youth in Caleb Williams (USC), in addition to other intriguing top players like Drake Maye (North Carolina), JJ McCarthy (Michigan), Bo Nix (Oregon) and Shedeur Sanders (Colorado). ), in particular. It is well known that they are the ones who will inevitably revive ailing franchises. Not so fast!
Not easy
Despite the invaluable resources invested in recruiting, it is still difficult to evaluate the most important position in football that determines the success or failure of a franchise.
While it would be unfair to immediately evaluate the quarterbacks selected last spring and even those of 2022, we only need to look a little further to see how the draft doesn’t always produce the expected results.
From 2018 to 2021, 17 quarterbacks were taken in the first round, where the risk of failure is said to be lowest.
How many can be considered real, established starters? Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are starters in the top third of the league in terms of skill.
Tua Tagovailoa can still be included in this category if he can stay healthy. Being very generous, we can add Kyler Murray, but the Cardinals themselves don’t seem thrilled with his involvement as the team’s leader. In the case of Jordan Love with the Packers, despite being drafted in 2020, he is in his first steps as a starter and it is still too early to make a judgment.
Big mistake
Trey Lance was selected third overall by the 49ers in 2021 and headed to Dallas when the team that drafted him quickly threw in the towel. Getty Images via AFP
In short, there are only five safe values in the lot and if we’re being as generous as possible, we’re guessing that total could rise to eight. 50% of decisions still do not meet expectations.
This doesn’t take into account that five of them had already changed addresses when their team decided to quickly throw in the towel.
Trey Lance, selected third overall by the 49ers in 2021, was traded to the Peanuts in Dallas, where he plays third fiddle.
Dwayne Haskins was released by Washington for personal reasons before later dying in a tragic accident against the Steelers.
Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in 2018, is living out his last chance as a starter with the Buccaneers, his fourth team. Sam Darnold had almost the same experience when he moved from the Jets to the Panthers and then to the 49ers.
Let’s not talk about the dizzying game of musical chairs played by Josh Rosen, the Cardinals’ 10th pick, who has hauled his backpack to seven teams in five seasons and is currently unemployed.
And things don’t get any better in the following rounds. From 2018 to 2020, 25 quarterbacks were selected after the first round and only one, Jalen Hurts with the Eagles, held a starting role. Only seven of them are in the regular squads with 53 players, the others have disappeared into the abyss of nothingness.
Any time an organization makes a mistake in its pick, there are more years of misery ahead, with the exception of the 49ers, who won the lottery with Brock Purdy in the seventh round last year despite the brutal failure of Trey Lance.
This is all to say to you, dear fans, that you need to have realistic expectations before wishing for your team to go down in order to get a higher ranking in the draft. Hope is good, but there are dreams and reality.
MY PREDICTION FOR THURSDAY: Lions 27, Packers 23
THROUGH THE NFL…
There’s a lot brewing for the Jets
After a difficult start to the season, there are already many signs of frustration among the Jets. Receiver Garrett Wilson complained about his use. His backfield teammate Michael Carter got into an argument with the running backs coach on the bench and the scene was caught on cameras. Head coach Robert Saleh is asked every day if he will bench quarterback Zach Wilson. A few days earlier, cornerback Sauce Gardner deleted his X account before it resurfaced. Not easy, life with the jets…
Poor Mike Williams!
The Chargers never get a break. Against the Vikings on Sunday, their outstanding Giant receiver Mike Williams was sidelined with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and his season is over. You’d swear this highly talented team is still dealing with injuries. However, this will be a great opportunity for last spring’s first-round pick, Quentin Johnston, to see more of the field. So far, he has only caught five passes for 26 yards.
Mac Jones and the Family Jewels
Once again, the Patriots’ quarterback is at the center of a controversy involving an opponent’s family jewels. In Sunday’s game against the Jets, cornerback Sauce Gardner subsequently claimed that Jones allegedly hit him in the “private area.” Without denying it, Jones made it clear that the gesture was “not intentional.” Last season, Jones also stood out on a slide in which he lifted his cleats between the legs of the Bears’ Jaquan Brisker.