On December 29, 2020, 14 months before the Russian army invaded Ukraine, the Swedish parliament approved by 204 votes in favor and 145 against a motion to open the discussion on Stockholm’s NATO membership. Virtually unknown in Italy, the episode makes it clear that Sweden’s decision to abandon neutrality, which it has maintained uninterruptedly for more than 200 years, is more mature than meets the eye.
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Because? Especially because from February 24, the date of the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the ruthlessness and rudeness of the Moscow leadership team came out violently, leaving the path of economic competition to take the path of military confrontation. This number has exploded the demand for protection from Swedes and Finns. Not surprisingly, since that day, polls conducted in Sweden and Finland consistently state that 70% or more of the two populations are in favor of joining NATO. In short, the two Scandinavian nations now feel more protected under the umbrella of the other 30 nations of the Atlantic Alliance – but above all, of course, under American nuclear missiles – compared to their current neutrality.
Azovstal, exhausted mothers and babies in the besieged steel mill
Formal status, but actually ….
Neutrality, which is more formal than factual. In fact, both Sweden and Finland are fully integrated into the western sphere, both have formed economies that contribute to the value chain of German multinationals (Finland also adopted the euro), and both – just to clarify who is responsible for what from which they are made are made – they have built respectable military apparatuses. It is no coincidence that both Scandinavian countries spend more than 2% of GDP on their armed forces, a minimum standard that NATO has required for the last 10 years but has so far been met by only half a dozen of the alliance’s member countries.
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Sweden, a leading country
However, it would be wrong to think that both countries move in unison. Sweden has a population of 10 million and was also an empire that was crushed by the Russians in 1709 with an overwhelming military victory in Ukraine, at Poltava in 1709. Therefore, Stockholm considers itself a leader in the Scandinavian space for tonnage and historical reasons and is very envious of its autonomy, even if only formally and monetary. For this reason, Sweden is also cautious about neutrality. Finland, on the other hand, is a smaller country with 5.5 million people, but very agile. With a solid economy based on shipbuilding (the main European competitor is Italy), huge paper mills, and a strong focus on technology (remember the miracle that ended badly for Nokia?), Finland doesn’t weigh that much , to be representative of no one but herself and therefore has a pragmatic attitude towards neutrality. On a purely military level, the position of the two countries is very different. Sweden is very concerned about the ongoing Russian encroachments on its skies and seas. But these are skirmishes. Finland, on the other hand, borders Russia over a distance of 1,400 kilometers. It was a colony of the Russian Tsars in 1800 and fought a very valiant war with the Russians who invaded it in the winter of 1939, inflicting heavy casualties on Stalin’s Red Army before succumbing to a peace treaty. more than honorable.
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convergences and differences
While in Finland the parliamentary debate on giving up neutrality has already started and all parties seem to be in favor of it and a vote for NATO membership is being sought by May, the times in Sweden are therefore longer. The Social Democratic Party, which leads the Stockholm government, supports joining the alliance with a majority, but one wing remains neutral. The confrontation in the party and then in the country will start in mid-May, two weeks earlier than expected, but there is less enthusiasm for NATO compared to Finland.
However, both countries know that there is not too much time to lose. With the engagement of the Russian army in Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland are in little danger, but the gap between giving up neutrality and joining NATO must be short, otherwise the passage could amount to a classic noose around the neck.
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