The war in Ukraine has shown Russia’s European neighbors that cooperating with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is not enough. You must be part of the alliance to receive military support in your areas in case of Russian threats. The end of Finland’s and Sweden’s policy of neutrality, maintained since 1945, reflects this reality. It also shows that threat perceptions in Europe are not the same as they were in the past.
Ukraine noticed this but acted slowly. Its rapprochement with the western military alliance has fueled Moscow’s argument that it is threatened by NATO.
Vladimir Putin launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24. Russian soldiers were on their way to Kyiv when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to formally apply for the country’s membership in NATO.
It was too late. The Alliance is not quick to add new members. Even less one that is already embroiled in an armed conflict.
Finland and Sweden formally applied to join NATO on Wednesday (May 18, 2022). They are no longer “cushion countries” between the West and Russia like Ukraine. Now they have taken sides. The successful policy of neutrality that Finland and Sweden had maintained during the Cold War (19471991) and the last three decades collapsed. The equidistance in the EastWest balance gave way to a sense of danger.
In a March 16 report, the Swedish government concluded that Russia’s actions amounted to a “significant, longterm and structural deterioration in the security environment in Europe and around the world.”
“Russia’s aggression against a NATO ally, Ukraine, has also highlighted NATO’s limited obligations to nonAllies and made it clear that Article 5 [ataque a um integrante se estende a toda a organização] it applies only to the defense of its allies,” the document said. “NATO collective defense does not include the partner dimension.”
The picture in Ukraine does not suggest that Moscow is capable of opening a new front in Finland, Sweden or any other country. Russian troops en route to Kyiv met uncalculated resistance and were ordered to withdraw to eastern Ukraine, where they were supported by proRussian separatists.
Russia is being strangled by economic sanctions by the United States, European countries, Japan and other nations. Inflation is rising in the emerging economy heading into recession. The retaliatory measures tend to escalate with the likely European blockade of Russian oil and coal imports later this year.
NATO, on the other hand, is being strengthened by the admission of new members that have been reluctant to date. And it’s expanding its border with Russia further east. Finland at the extreme has a 1,287kilometer border with the country ruled by Vladimir Putin.
But the feeling of threat prevails in the population of the two Nordic countries. It’s something new. The parliaments of both nations have approved membership in NATO. Popular support for the initiative was often low. In February, it rose to 53%, according to a poll by Taloustutkimu for the Yle news agency. The following month to 62%. In May to 76%.
In Sweden, an April Demoskop poll for Aftonbladet newspaper showed that 57% were in favor of accession. In May 2018, the Swedish government distributed a brochure to citizens with instructions on how to protect themselves in the event of war. The Swedish civil defense agency said at the time “there were threats” enough for a reprint of a pamphlet distributed during World War II.
in the liver
It is very difficult to understand how the decisions of Finland and Sweden to join NATO fell into Putin’s liver. On Sunday (May 15, 2022) the Russian President said: “I see no problems with these nations”. “So in that sense, (NATO) expansion into these countries does not pose a direct threat to Russia,” he said.
US President Joe Biden reiterated this view shortly after welcoming Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö on Thursday (May 19). “Let me be clear: New NATO members are not a threat to any nation.”
However, Putin’s next steps are uncertain. Russia is more isolated and was easily identified by Western countries as an aggressive, authoritarian, and expansionist state.
They didn’t come from China and India, which benefit from cheap Russian oil imports, Russia’s approval of or public condemnation of its invasion of Ukraine. On the contrary, both countries are pushing for an end to the war. Mainly because of the risks it poses to food and energy security and its potential to derail the expected global economic recovery.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. International analysts and former US officials have warned since the 1990s that Moscow could respond militarily if it perceived NATO expansion into Eastern Europe as a threat.
Russia had been treated as an enemy rather than a focus of cooperation and potential Westernization at the collapse of the Soviet Union. The opportunity was missed. Putin has deepened this situation by invading Ukraine.
Turkey on the way
The NATO accession of Finland and Sweden tends to be quick. The countries meet the criteria of maintaining a functioning democratic political system, fair treatment of minorities, commitment to peaceful conflict resolution and democratic civilmilitary relations, and ability to contribute to NATO operations. It’s halfway.
Since 1994 they have also been cooperating with NATO’s Partnership for Peace program. On Monday (May 16), Sweden and Finland took part in Operation Hedgehog military exercises in the Baltic Sea by officially announcing their applications with the alliance.
The obstacle comes from Turkey, which has been a member of NATO since 1952. New accessions must be based on the consensus of the organization’s 30 countries. Ankara, which has tried to broker peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, gave two reasons for vetoing the expansion.
The first of these is the persecution of the leaders and members of the PKK (Turkish acronym for Kurdistan Workers’ Party). Turkey accuses them of organizing a coup attempt in 2016.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan accused the two Nordic countries of being “incubators” of terrorists. He demanded the extradition of 30 PKK members and received no response. His government has been trying to do the same with the USA for years, where party leader Fethullah Gülen is in asylum. Vain.
The other issue concerns sanctions imposed by Finland and Sweden in 2019 on Turkish defense material exports. The measures were the result of Turkish military incursions in Syria.
Erdogan has already warned the governments of the Nordic countries against sending delegations to Ankara. They don’t want to know what they have to say. However, NATO leaders believe there will be a way to bend Turkey. It would be disastrous for the military alliance if a single member vetoed what is seen as a “watershed moment for European security”.
Biden’s reception of Finnish and Swedish leaders at the White House shows there was no point without a knot. It would have been postponed for the US president’s return from a trip to Japan and South Korea that began Thursday night. Finland and Sweden in NATO is a fait accompli.