Here’s the latest on the process and the key points discussed.
The coming days are crucial. On May 12, Finland will decide to apply for NATO membership, the Iltalehti newspaper reported on Sunday, citing anonymous Finnish government sources.
It would be a two-step process, Iltalehti reported. President Sauli Niinisto would first announce his approval of Finland’s accession, followed by parliamentary groups who would vote in favor of the motion.
There would be no plenary vote in Parliament, but group leaders expressing the decisions of their groups.
Reuters was not immediately available to confirm the report.
In Sweden, the parliament is conducting a security policy review including the pros and cons of joining the alliance, the results of which are expected on May 13. A majority in parliament is already in favor of NATO membership.
In parallel, the ruling Social Democrats, the strongest party in every election for the past 100 years, will hold an internal debate May 9-12 on whether to drop long-standing opposition to NATO membership, with the party leadership calling for a Decision must be made no later than May 24th.
If Finland bids, Sweden will likely do the same as they don’t want to be the only Nordic underdogs. Other Nordic countries – Norway, Denmark and Iceland – have joined the pact as founding members. Several recent polls suggest a majority of Swedes are in favour, something that never happened before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Finland and Sweden would like some guarantees that NATO member states would defend them during any transition period if they were candidates for the alliance but are not yet in.
Ratification can take a year, NATO diplomats say, as parliaments of all 30 NATO countries have to approve new members.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said countries could join “quickly” and he was certain arrangements could be made for the transition period.
The United States and Britain have promised Sweden “increased military presence, intensified military exercises and ‘strong political’ support from NATO countries” during a possible NATO application process, Swedish daily Aftonbladet reported.
Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto conceded that simply filing an application to join would not bring the two Nordic countries under the umbrella of NATO’s Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on one ally is an attack on all.
“But at the same time, NATO member states have an interest in ensuring that no security breaches take place during the application period,” Haavisto said, adding that Finland could, for example, hold intensified military exercises with NATO members during this period.
Moscow has repeatedly warned of “serious consequences” if Finland and Sweden join NATO, including strengthening its land, sea and air forces in the Baltic Sea and the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the region.
Russia and Finland share a 1,300 km (810 mi) border; The Kola Peninsula is a “strategic bastion” that Moscow sees as key to Russia’s national security. It is also home to Russia’s Northern Fleet, and Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, is about 170 km from the border with Finland.