WASHINGTON. When President Biden met in the Oval Office Friday afternoon with Sauli Niinistö, the president of neutral but increasingly nervous Finland, Mr. Biden tried to calm his guest down by joking lightly, recalling what Barack Obama once said.
“President Obama used to say, ‘We’ll be fine if we leave everything to the Nordics,'” Mr. Biden recalled. “Everything would be fine.”
Mr. Niinistö nodded and replied, “Well, we don’t usually start wars.”
It was an exchange of views on how diplomacy has changed over the past nine days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine shook the way Europeans talked about Russia. Prior to this, President Vladimir V. Putin’s Russia was an unpredictable force that had to be managed, especially for a country like Finland, which Russia ruled for most of the 19th century, until the Russian Revolution of 1917.
Now, the country responsible for the term “Finlandization” – a Cold War term Finns don’t fondly remember – is rethinking its relationship with Washington, NATO and the West. Its streets are a mixture of Scandinavian and European cultures, and its politics are increasingly leaning towards the West. The invasion of Ukraine, for the first time, made people seriously consider whether it should be a member of NATO.
But in their brief joint public speech, during which both leaders expressed their desire to strengthen what Mr Niinistö called a “long-term partnership” between their countries, neither mentioned the possibility of Finland joining the Western alliance. It looked deliberate. Even if the Finns decide to try to move towards full NATO membership – which still seems achievable – it will not be difficult to figure out how they will move from their current neutrality to formal membership.
The problem, as one European diplomat said, is the period of vulnerability between the moment Finland declares its interest in becoming a full member of NATO and the moment it comes under the protection of the alliance, and its Article V guarantee that an attack on one of it is an attack on everyone. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity in order to broadcast private discussions.
As soon as the invasion of Ukraine began, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that any such move would have “serious military-political consequences.” No one knew exactly what it meant, but after the brutal scenes of the invasion of Ukraine, they clearly do not want to find out.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki was painstakingly ambiguous.
Asked if Mr. Biden wants Finland to join NATO, Ms. Psaki said: “It’s up to the leaders of Finland and the NATO alliance to decide.”