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The French elections could end in surprise, until recently Emmanuel Macron’s victory was all but certain. The first round of the French presidential elections will take place on Sunday April 10th. France is one of the largest economies in Europe and one of the three nuclear powers in NATO:
- Support for Emmanuel Macron is plummeting, with right-wing Marine LePen the most prominent contender. Dynamic support for Le-Pen surprises analysts. The final result of the elections should be known after the second ballot, which will probably be between LePen and Macron;
- LePen has sparked controversy by criticizing France’s sanctions policy and NATO membership towards Russia. A possible LePen victory could provoke a NATO crisis and complicate the consolidation of western Russia policy. In her election campaign, LePen appealed to the “simple French” with the promise to lower the retirement age and pursue a conservative policy towards Russia;
- The value of Russian exports to France increased by more than 15% in 2021 (mainly natural gas, oil);
- Western societies are concerned about the economic consequences of a crisis in relations with Russia. The French public is obviously starting to worry about exchange rates, Macron’s diplomatic efforts may not be enough for a win
- LePen’s victory will potentially weaken the EU and NATO. It also poses a challenge to US, UK and NATO Eastern Flank policies;
- “Continental consolidation” in Europe is not in the interests of the US, which is trying to unite the West against aggressive Russia and China;
- On the wave of LePen’s victory in France, changes in the foreign policy of Germany, for which France is a strategic partner, could also be reconsidered. Germany is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, a society likely to fear rising energy prices and war-related inflation that could empty citizens’ pockets and put pressure on authorities;
The chart shows the growing support for Marine Le Pen. Macron, another big contender, the left Melenchon, who won most recently, is unlikely to advance to the second round.
The French index remains below the neckline of the RGR formation, which remains the main resistance. Their support is at the level of 6435 points.