First change: 04/04/2022 – 18:56 Last change: 04/04/2022 – 18:54
PARIS (AFP) – Russian forces are withdrawing from the outskirts of Kyiv and northern Ukraine, but analysts believe Moscow needs a victory and is aiming for several military and political gains in the coming months.
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial goals extended beyond the current situation on the front lines, Russia could emerge from this initial attack militarily stronger, even in the event of a quick ceasefire.
Those are five possible targets for Moscow.
Need symbols
On May 9, Russia commemorates the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s surrender in 1945 in front of Allied troops, particularly Soviet troops. The Kremlin will have to present its public opinion with a positive record.
“Putin is obsessed with symbolic dates and history. So he desperately needs a win before May 9,” said Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS).
“Russia cannot afford to lose,” said Sergei Karaganov, honorary president of the Council on Foreign Affairs and Defense Policy, who is close to Putin. “The stakes for the Russian elite are very high, for them it is an existential war,” he added to the New Statesman site.
Take Mariupol
The Russians “want to achieve the complete capture of Mariupol,” says Alexander Grinberg along with other experts. This southeastern city on the Azov Sea has been badly hit by Russia’s incessant bombardment for weeks and is about to fall.
“It’s a position that establishes a significant number of assault troops,” analyzes Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES).
Control of Mariupol will guarantee territorial continuity from Crimea to the two pro-Russia breakaway republics of Donbass, Donetsk and Luhansk. That will make it easier for the Russians “to advance to take what is left of the Donbass and create a contiguous space in southern Ukraine and on the coast of the Sea of Azov,” said Pierre Razoux.
gain territory
Russia is about to guarantee the security of the conquests recorded in recent weeks and undeniable control of the cities and regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Their goal is to establish “long-term occupation regimes” in Donbass, says Ivan Klyszcz, an Estonian researcher for the Riddle think tank.
The truce hypothesis is on the table. And it would temporarily fix the front.
“The war is far from over and could turn to the advantage of the Russians in the event of a successful operation in eastern Ukraine,” says the US Institute for War Research (ISW).
If there is a ceasefire “on the basis of +keep what you have+, Russia could keep different parts of Ukraine,” confirmed Ivan Klyszcz. “That would create de facto boundaries where the front line is.”
gain time
“The Russian army lost more troops in Ukraine in the first two weeks of the war than the Americans lost in Afghanistan in 20 years,” says the Soufan Center think tank in New York.
Faced with Ukrainian resistance, the Russian General Staff had to reconsider its goals, but not necessarily in the long term. Pierre Razoux even mentions the possibility of splitting Ukraine in two, considering the Dnieper river.
“But it won’t happen in that order,” he muses.
Russia must rebuild its armed forces, call up new recruits, replace the destroyed material. A cessation of fighting would allow him to rebuild his forces “to return to attack and play the second round in six months or a year.”
But the break would also benefit Ukraine.
Children say goodbye as they flee by train from Ukraine’s Donbass region city of Kramatorsk April 4, 2022, Fadel Senna AFP
“Beyond the current struggle for Donbass, Ukraine would be in a more favorable position if it eventually turned into a war of attrition,” Michael Kofman, Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), said on Twitter.
Share the opponent
Russia has verified the Westerners’ united front, but it seems fragile.
When US President Joe Biden sowed concern by mentioning the need for Putin’s resignation, French President Emmanuel Macron distanced himself.
Moreover, British, American, French, German and Italian leaders have recently found it useful to warn of a “flaking of Western resolve” in the face of a Russian invasion.
Russia can try to get Westerners to disagree about, for example, the use of Russian gas.
“The aim of the game is also to divide public opinion: the Europeans among themselves, some Europeans against the Ukrainians, the Europeans and the Americans,” emphasizes Pierre Razoux.
© 2022 AFP