War in Ukraine: 5 things to know today. The prognosis: “The conflict will continue throughout 2022”. The Donbass will mark the watershed between victory and defeat. The Russian military parade on May 9 in Mariupol. No respite or truce. Polls: How worried are Italians about the war?
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1) “The war will continue throughout 2022”
Not just weapons to immediately resist the invasion, but tools to confront a long and technological war. The US is preparing to change its support for Kyiv and plans to put war aid into service after the summer: sophisticated systems that require soldiers to be trained by American instructors. Stinger, Javelin and other similar devices, small and easy to use, were essential in repelling the first “attack” on the capital Kyiv in March, but they will not be enough to contain the new attacks. The Pentagon would now be convinced that there will be no diplomatic solution, let alone a victor on the field: the conflict will last at least through 2022. A simulation from Marine Corps University, the Marines’ school of excellence, goes in that direction: it predicts that over the summer the competitors will “find themselves in the situation of 1915, with either side unable to launch a major offensive to start because the reserves of men and ammunition will be almost exhausted”. In this scenario, Russia could risk an institutional crisis next winter, with Putin’s power being challenged because of the economic weight of the sanctions. Ukraine will also face serious dangers, to the point where an army withdrawal west of the Dnieper is contemplated. On the ground, as the republic summarizes today, “the survival of Ukraine, which has far fewer soldiers, will depend on the ability to train other fighters and obtain more modern weapons.
2) Donbass will mark the watershed between victory and defeat
Russia focuses on the eastern Donbass region. He wants to start the new military offensive quickly. And be sure to conquer it. This is the reason for the massive deployment of troops on the eastern Ukrainian border, which was also confirmed yesterday. The impression is that this crucial fight will not be easy. Ukrainian armed forces continue to receive sophisticated weapons. This causes deep anger in the Kremlin, which has seen thousands of soldiers killed and hundreds of tanks, helicopters and planes lost to the precision weapons and drones shipped to Kyiv. In particular, in the last few hours there have been clashes near Borova, north of Izium and south of Izium, which for days has become the new outpost of the Russian offensive in the area. Further fighting took place north and west of the city of Donetsk, near Skotovata, Avdiivka and Velyka Novosilka. Many analysts are speculating that the offensive will intensify over the next few days. Russia will try to make significant progress, while Ukraine will continue to have effective air defenses and artillery. So far, both sides have had similar strength in the region: around 30,000 to 40,000 soldiers. But Western officials say Russia is aiming to double or even triple its strength in the Donbass. Ukraine has some of its most battlehardened troops in the region. Separatists supported by Russia have been fighting here for eight years. There are fortified trenches and defensive positions. “Some of the troops may look tired, but morale appears to be high,” says the BBC. “Ukraine also receives realtime information on Russian military movements from its Western allies. Russia still has a numerical advantage: tens of thousands more. Troops are being moved around the capital, Kyiv, after the failed offensive. Russia is also fighting on fewer fronts now and its supply lines will not be as long. Donbass will mark the watershed between victory and defeat.
3) The Russian military parade on May 9 in Mariupol
The capture of Mariupol now seems inevitable. The port is now under Russian control, as are the northern and western districts, while 10,000 of Putin’s men are deployed, according to Kyiv’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. But the Ukrainian authorities and the Azov Battalion do not confirm the surrender of the entire city. The Mariupol outpost is included in Moscow’s plans because it will allow Donbass control to be strengthened with that of Crimea. False triumphalism has also come to the rescue in keeping Russian troops’ morale high. Under the rubble of the strategic port on the Sea of Azov, the Kremlin is even preparing a military parade for May 9. La Stampa writes it today: “No march on rubble, no. A ‘carnival of victory’ that the invaders would stage in a city cleared of corpses, although they do not yet control everything ‘image’ of the peaceful life of the new ‘deNazi future’. According to some unconfirmed estimates, the number of dead in Mariupol has so far reached 20,000.
4) No truce or truce
UN SecretaryGeneral Antonio Guterres pointed out that a comprehensive ceasefire in Ukraine does not seem possible at the moment. “A global ceasefire does not seem possible at the moment, but there are many things that can be done to ensure the evacuation of civilians from combat zones to ensure humanitarian access in a reliable situation,” Guterres said. The UN number one said the UN had proposed a mechanism involving Russia, Ukraine and humanitarian organizations to prevent accidents. Guterres also stated that the UN had made several proposals for humanitarian ceasefires, but “we are still awaiting a response from the Russian Federation regarding these proposals.” Fires, humanitarian aid corridors, evacuation and many other aspects that make the dramatic Minimize the impact on civilians that we are experiencing. The European churches’ appeal to Puttin and Zelenskyy for an Easter truce for Ukraine from April 17, Easter Day of the Latin Church, to midnight of April 24, Easter Day of the Orthodox Churches, will fall on deaf ears.
5) Polls: How worried are Italians about the war?
More than 9 out of 10 citizens are worried about the war, according to a poll by Demos for the Republic’s political atlas. Along with concern, solidarity with the Ukrainian people and consistent condemnation of Russian intervention is reiterated. Considered “serious and unjustified by 3 out of 4 Italians, although 20% justify Russia. And 3% support the reasons. A minority but significant stake. Wider among voters placed far left and far left. Again, these are stable guidelines over the past few weeks. And they are likely to reproduce biased beliefs. However, the consensus towards Ukraine prevails. And it is reflected in the willingness to take the measures outlined by the government at this stage. Even if they involve significant “costs and inconveniences for citizens. In fact, 2 out of 3 citizens agree with Mario Draghi when he says that in order to end the war in Ukraine, “Italians should give up some energy consumption such as heating or air conditioning”.