The launch of a North Korean ballistic missile that flew over Japan last night is above all “a message sent to the United States”, analyzed on Tuesday October 4 on franceinfo Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea program of the Strategy and Research Foundation Teacher at Science Po.
franceinfo: Is it because this militia flew over Japan that US President Joe Biden speaks of a “robust” response?
Antoine Bondaz: Yes, this is the seventh time this type of missile has been fired by North Korea. We’re talking about a Hwasong-12, which has a theoretical range of 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers. This time she reached 4,700 kilometers. And it’s the third time it’s overflyed Japan, after two previous overflights in 2017. So what’s particularly worrying Japan isn’t so much this new shot, but rather the multiplication of tests. In the last ten years and since Kim Jong Un came to power, we’ve come close to two hundred ballistic tests.
And with Joe Biden speaking so quickly, is he afraid of a direct hit at the United States?
This type of missile cannot reach the continental United States. On the other hand, it could theoretically reach the island of Guam in the Pacific. An American island where the Navy has a strong presence. This shooting is therefore more of a message to the United States than to Japan. The overflight of Japan is mainly explained by the fact that North Korea wants to test the maximum range of its missiles. To do this, you have to reach the Pacific and fly over Japan. This shot is North Korea’s desire to develop technically and operationally. Over the past four years, the country has developed precision attack capabilities capable of breaching Korean and Japanese missile defenses. It is North Korea’s desire to change the balance of power in the region.
And since Kim Jong Un is one of the few leaders who has publicly supported Vladimir Putin…
Yes, there is explicit support for voting against the March 2022 UN General Assembly resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. In July, North Korea was the only country to recognize the separatist republics of eastern Ukraine. But the real connection to the Russian invasion is that North Korea is benefiting from three trends. The first is the trivialization of his ballistic tests. The second reason is the international community’s rightfully diverted focus on Ukraine. The third is the divisiveness of this international community: In May 2022, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning North Korean ballistic tests. A premiere since 2006.