AGI – The war in Ukraine means a defeat on the ground for Russian troops, General Carlo Jean, expert on military strategy and president of the Center for Economic Geopolitics, is convinced of this. According to General Jean, the military setback for Vladimir Putin it is comparable to that of Mussolini in Greece during World War II.
“Putin has to swallow the bitter pill and bring himself to withdraw,” he told AGI, “in order to then contribute financially to rebuilding what he destroyed in Ukraine. I say even more: if there were no Ukrainian people, he managed to make it. And when NATO fell apart, Putin restored it: they should give him a medal of honor … “.
Why should the Russian armed forces be headed for defeat?
“The Russians lack infantry because they have reorganized for war against armored and mechanized armies like those of NATO. Therefore, the tactical battalion groups deployed by the Russians have fewer than 200 infantrymen per thousand men. And in an unconventional warfare, the defenders. who know the terrain well and hide in the forest and scree end up gaining the upper hand and inflicting significant casualties”.
But the Russian bombing is inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine.
“The bombing of the cities is easy, not so much because the Russians do not want to destroy the buildings, but because they are not equipped: they have few bombers. They fire artillery and launch rockets that, more than anything else, frighten the populace, deliberate tactics as dictated by desperation.
Where are the Russian bombers?
“Almost all were involved in the transport of nuclear weapons. And from the 60-70s only about ten are modern. The others are from the 1970s. Nothing like the American B-52s.”
What is the reason for the shortage?
“Russia, which does not have enough money, has mainly invested in strategic weapons such as nuclear submarines and hyper-fast missiles. In addition, the military doctrine of the Russian armed forces provides for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of an escalation, but Russia is in the case “Ukraine cannot afford to raze a city to the ground: tearing down the St. Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv would be like the French destroy St. Peter’s Basilica there. So they confine themselves to artillery, even if it causes painful casualties among the civilian population, as in Mariupol. But to conquer the cities, I repeat, the Russians do not have a suitable army. They do not have enough infantry, and that explains why they intend to use Syrian volunteers”.
What is the cause of this deficiency?
“The organization of an army depends heavily on the demographics of a people. If a woman has ten children, as in World War I, two might be left at home, but if she has one or two, that’s a loss. All in all, the Russian army, wanted by Chief of Staff Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shogu, has since In 2015, firepower was given absolute supremacy over infantry, and a technical-military revolution was even theorized that should lead to an army “without soldiers”.
Do factors related to Ukrainian territory also weigh on the conflict?
“Of course. The Russian tanks moved worse due to the softer ground due to the change in temperature and turned out to be even less resilient than previously thought. The Ukrainian infantry attacked them on the flanks, inflicting heavy casualties. And then, with the widening of the war in depth, the problem of securing supply routes aggravates: a truck convoy has little chance of reaching Kyiv from the Belarusian border if it has to cross areas full of guerrillas with the most modern equipment anti-tank weapons”.
What is Putin doing now?
“Out of a total of 225 Russian Army tactical groups divided into battalions, 160 are already deployed in Ukraine. Putin is scratching the bottom of the barrel by pulling back other tactical groups from Ossetia and Tajikistan, even the 201st Mechanized Division would be deployed on the march towards Ukraine. A very difficult situation. It may be that Putin is not clear about everything, closing himself more and more in his magic circle, which, as happens with dictators, has narrowed to those who are loyal to him”.
Can Desperation Lead to the Use of Nuclear Weapons?
“First, there are other systems, such as thermobaric bombs with the power of 44 tons of TNT. Then the chemical and biological weapons. But in that case, the global reaction would be enormous, probably even that of the Russian people. And then I know them well, senior Russian officials: they are cultured and intelligent, and if Putin gave them an order to use nuclear weapons, they would probably refuse, especially if they had to use them in a city, I am of that Convinced In Russia there is a triple key: Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov have it there”.
Could the Chinese supply the Russians with weapons?
“The only things they could give are the drones, which the Russians lack while the Chinese are good, and the long-lived combat rations. But they will think twice. The consequences for trade would be disproportionate and China is too vulnerable sea links: a merchant ship would no longer pass east or west if the western powers decided to blockade”.
How can Putin ever justify a troop withdrawal?
“He’ll camouflage him with propaganda, he’ll say he’s doing it to save lives. He controls Russian public opinion. And it is to be hoped that the regime will not implode on a territory because of a civil war thousands of weapons. Nuclear power is not a joke scenario.”