A former British ambassador to Russia has asked why Russia’s response to Wagner’s rebellion was so “weak” but doesn’t think Vladimir Putin will leave power “anytime soon”.
Laurie Bristow, who served as a British diplomat in Russia from 2016 to 2020, also said he had a hard time understanding Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow, which failed at the 11th hour.
Prigozhin’s private group of mercenaries had vowed to “destroy anyone who stands in our way” as they traveled from Rostov-on-Don to the Russian capital – a key Russian city in the war that they had no problem occupying.
But the humiliated Wagner boss backed out of what many described as an attempted coup, saying he wanted to avoid shedding Russian blood.
When the former prisoner flees to Belarus in exchange for having the rebellion charges against him dropped, Mr Bristow claimed that “many more steps of the drama have yet to unfold”.
Laurie Bristow, Britain’s Ambassador to Russia from 2016 to 2020, has questioned why Russia’s response to Wagner’s rebellion was so “weak” but doesn’t think Vladimir Putin will step down from power “anytime soon”.
He also said he found it difficult to understand Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow, which failed at the 11th hour. Pictured: Prigozhin left Moscow for Belarus last night
Vladimir Putin’s presidency was jeopardized when Wagner invaded Moscow, but the private mercenary group withdrew after an agreement was reached
Mr Bristow, who was also Ambassador to Afghanistan between June and November 2021 when Kabul fell, said on BBC Radio 4 this morning: “I think we are in a very complex situation here.”
“There are almost certainly several more acts of this drama to be played. One of the things we all struggle with is trying to understand what has happened in the last 24 hours. There are so many things we don’t know.
“We don’t know what Prigozhin wanted to achieve.” We don’t quite understand why the Russian response was so weak and allowed him to take Rostov – the key city of the war in Ukraine. We don’t know why it was resolved so quickly.
“One day ago Putin accused Prigozhin of treason, by the end of the day all charges were dropped.” “We don’t know how the deal came about, how it came about, we don’t really know what happens next.”
According to the agreement announced by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Prigozhin will go to neighboring Belarus, which has backed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The charges against him of instigating an armed uprising are dropped.
The government also said it would not prosecute the Wagner fighters involved, while those who did not take part would be offered contracts by the Department of Defense.
Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their bases in Ukraine, where they fought alongside Russian regular soldiers.
Although the past two days have been somewhat humiliating for both Putin and Prigozhin, Mr. Bristow does not believe there is an immediate threat to the Russian president’s power.
Soldiers of the Wagner group prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, June 24, 2023
People gathered to say goodbye to Prigozhin. People reached through the window of his car, shook hands with the exiled leader and took selfies with him
The head of the insurgent Wagner mercenary force Yevgeny Prigozhin (pictured Saturday) will travel to Belarus and face no charges after halting his troops’ advance on Moscow, the Russian government said, mitigating the country’s worst security crisis in decades
“I don’t think that based on the events of the last 24 hours, we should be hasty in assuming that Mr. Putin will step down from power any time soon,” he said.
“It’s also very important to be careful in the West about what we say about it.” The G7 leader’s statement was very guarded and very carefully timed to underpin our continued support for Ukraine in repelling Russian aggression, without however, falling into the trap of doing essentially Russian propaganda work for them and allowing them to say the West is meddling in Russia’s internal affairs here.
“This is a Russian crisis caused in Russia by the failure of the Russian leadership.”
But analysts at the Institute for the Study of War claim the apparent truce with Wagner forces is a “short-term fix, not a long-term fix.”
They argued: “The uprising revealed the weakness of Russia’s security forces and showed Putin’s inability to deploy his forces in a timely manner to ward off an internal threat, further undermining his monopoly on the use of force.”
“Prigozhin’s rapid advance towards Moscow ridiculed much of Russia’s regular armed forces – and showed all security guards, state companies and other key figures in the Russian government that private forces, separate from the central state, can achieve impressive results.”
“Wagner’s push also demonstrated the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are devoted almost exclusively to fighting in Ukraine, and the dangers of relying on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders.”
The analysts noted that the Kremlin did not “react quickly” and that in some cases Wagner militants were “warmly greeted” by Rostov-on-Don residents.
Mr Bristow said Putin had allowed the dispute between Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry to drag on for far too long. ‘[Wagner] “The project was funded and allowed to be set up to essentially help do the Kremlin’s dirty work for it,” he added.
Spectators clapped and cheered “Wagner” as the troops were ordered by their leaders to leave Rostov
As Prigozhin’s troops retreated from Rostov, tanks were withdrawn from the southern city of Rostov
“That led to a battle for resources and power with the Department of Defense.” Putin let it go too long. He often avoids difficult decisions affecting his subordinates.
“That then led to direct criticism from Prigozhin of the actual basis of the war.” That comes very close to a criticism of Putin himself.
“What we are seeing are the consequences of successive strategic failures by the Russian state and leadership, but also the nature of the Russian state itself beginning to produce the results of those failures.”
As Russia attempts to regain control after a 24-hour whirlwind, Mr. Bristow believes Putin will feel he must now declare some form of victory in the war against Ukraine.
He added: “The impact of what just happened on the army’s morale and capabilities will be seen in the coming days.”
“One thing we will most certainly see in the coming weeks and months is an intensification of the already deep repression within Russia itself, as the Kremlin and those around it seek to regain control of the situation and inside Russia itself to set a narrative.”
As of Sunday morning, there were still no reports of Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus. Many other questions remained unanswered, including whether Wagner’s troops would join him in exile and what role, if any, he would play there.
Prigozhin, who sent out a series of audio and video updates during his revolt, has remained silent since the Kremlin announced a deal had been negotiated for him to end his march and leave Russia.
Video from Rostov-on-Don released on Russian messaging app channels showed people cheering Wagner troops as they left. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin. The regional governor later said all troops had evacuated the city.
Putin previously vowed to punish those behind the armed insurgency led by his former protégé. In a televised speech to the nation, he referred to the uprising as a “treason” and “treason.”
A man holds the Russian national flag in front of a Wagner Group military vehicle with the inscription ‘Rostov’ on it late June 24, 2023 in Rostov-on-Don.
Ukrainian soldiers fired on Russian positions on the front line in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region on Saturday
The war rages on: Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko speaks to local residents next to a 24-story building partially destroyed after a Russian missile attack early June 24 in Kiev
Mr. Peskov said Putin’s “top priority” in allowing Prigozhin and his troops to be released was “to avoid bloodshed and internal confrontation with unpredictable results.”
The risk for Mr Putin is whether he will be seen as weak, analysts said.
“Putin was forever weakened by this affair,” former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst told CNN.
Moscow had prepared for the arrival of Wagner’s troops by setting up checkpoints of armored vehicles and troops on the southern outskirts of the city. About 3,000 Chechen soldiers were withdrawn from and taken to the fighting in Ukraine early on Saturday, Chechen state TV reported. To slow the march, the emergency services dug up sections of road.
According to Prigozhin, Wagner troops advanced to just 120 miles from Moscow. But after the deal went through, he announced that he had decided to withdraw to avoid “the shedding of Russian blood”.
As of Sunday morning, some restrictions were still in place on the main Moscow-Rostov-on-Don road, but traffic restrictions were gradually lifted in other places.
Prigozhin had called for the ouster of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, whom he had long criticized for his behavior in the 16-month war in Ukraine.
Should Putin agree to this move, it could be politically damaging for the president, who has branded Prigozhin as a backstabbing traitor.
The US had information that Prigozhin had been building up its armed forces near the border with Russia for some time. This contradicts Prigozhin’s claim that his uprising was in response to a Russian military attack on his camps in Ukraine on Friday.
Fighters from the private mercenary group Wagner withdraw June 24 from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to the base in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia
In this video image, a man sits on an armored vehicle in the street as residents of the southern Russian city talk to military personnel on Saturday, June 24
US Congress leaders were briefed on the Wagner buildup early last week, a person familiar with the matter said
When Prigozhin announced the uprising, he accused Russian forces of attacking the Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery. He claimed that Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov ordered the attacks after a meeting with Mr Shoigu, at which it was decided to crush the military contractor.
The Ministry of Defense denied an attack on the camps.
US Congress leaders were briefed on the Wagner buildup early last week, a person familiar with the matter said.
One possible reason for Prigozhin’s uprising was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, supported by Putin, that private companies sign contracts with him by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do so.
“He may well have struck now because he saw this deadline as a threat to his control of his troops,” Mr Herbst wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians hoped that the Russians’ internal infighting would create opportunities for their army to retake territories captured by Russian forces.
“These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and military,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow in land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He said even with a deal, Mr Putin’s position was likely to have been weakened.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Saturday, just before Prigozhin announced his withdrawal, that the march exposed weakness in the Kremlin and “showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries and oligarchs that it was easy to destroy Russian cities” and probably arsenals ” to conquer. .
Wagner troops played a crucial role in the Ukraine War, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place. But Prigozhin increasingly criticizes the military leadership, accusing it of incompetence and the lack of ammunition for its troops.