- According to retired General David Petraeus, a former CIA director, Putin has run out of options in Ukraine.
- Putin’s recent “desperate” steps, including mobilization and annexations, would not change the situation, he said.
- “Ukraine has a far more capable and larger armed force at this point in the war,” he said.
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Retired US Army General David Petraeus, a former CIA director, told CNBC on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is in a “desperate” situation in Ukraine.
Putin is “literally out of motion,” Petraeus said, adding, “He’s trying all these different desperate actions. But the fact of the matter is, the reality that Russia faces on the battlefield in Ukraine is that Ukraine has a far more capable and larger armed force than the country, which is more than three times its size.”
Explaining how the war got to this point, Petraeus said that Ukraine’s full mobilization early in the conflict and receiving billions in aid from Western countries gave it an advantage over Russia, which until recently resisted any mobilization.
It is believed that Russia suffered huge losses in battle. In August, the Pentagon said the US estimates that Russia has suffered as many as 80,000 casualties — a staggering number in less than a year of war. It is also estimated that Russia lost thousands of armored vehicles and pulled out of storage obsolete Soviet-era equipment to fill the gaps in its ranks.
And now Russia is mobilizing more troops to fight in Ukraine. Western officials and military experts have said that Putin’s latest mobilization decision is a sign that Russia is failing in Ukraine, while stressing that the draft is unlikely to change the situation on the battlefield as conscripts have little to no training.
The mobilization was also chaotic, with thousands of Russian men fleeing the country. Petraeus suggested that the mobilization likely resulted in more Russian men leaving the country than going to the conscription centers, saying that this is not part of how a country produces “capable and competent and well-equipped armed forces”. .
“The reality on the battlefield is now desperate for Putin,” said the former CIA director, “there is literally nothing he can do. It is irreversible.”
Petraeus stressed that the “battlefield dynamics are very much directed against Russia,” whose forces are “struggling only to establish new defensive positions.”
Last week, Putin annexed four regions of Ukraine after referendums that were widely decried as bogus. But almost immediately after Putin’s announcement, Ukrainian forces in those areas retook territory from Russia. “The Ukrainians are already taking back these annexed territories about as fast as Russia can annex them,” Petraeus said.
However, the retired general argued that there is still “an enormous amount of damage and destruction that Russia can inflict.”
“They will continue to punish Ukraine with rockets and rockets and bombs and so on every day. But at the end of the day, they cannot reverse the situation on the battlefield that will result in Ukraine taking back territory from Russia since February 24 and perhaps taking back everything Russia has taken from them since 2014,” he said Petraeus.
Russian Yars nuclear missiles on mobile launchers roll down Red Square during the Victory Day military parade May 6, 2018 in Moscow, Russia. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
Western officials and Russia observers have repeatedly expressed concern that Putin is more likely to resort to a tactical nuclear weapon while Russia is fighting on the battlefield. Putin has made several nuclear threats since the war began, and Petraeus said this should be taken “very seriously”.
But he said that even if Putin were to use a tactical nuclear weapon, it would not fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield around Russia.
“It probably makes it worse. Yes, there will be significant deaths and destruction and radiation,” Petraeus said, “but it will not reverse the situation where Ukraine has a far larger and better and more capable military force than Russia. “
The former CIA chief has said his biggest concern about Ukraine is that the conflict is “getting out of hand”.
“I think it’s legitimate for the US leadership and the leadership of other countries to avoid starting World War III, as the phrase has been called,” he said, adding that that’s why it’s “so important” for the US To make it clear that Russia would face serious consequences if a nuclear weapon were used.
“But we don’t want to start climbing the nuclear ladder with Russia,” he said.
The Biden administration said in late September it had privately warned Russia the US would respond “firmly” if a nuclear weapon were used, and told Moscow there would be “catastrophic results.”
Addressing concerns that the Russian leader might take such drastic steps if he feels cornered, Petraeus said he doesn’t believe Putin is “suicidal” and “not the end of the Russian Federation as he sees it.” knows, wants to bring about”. .” He said the Russian leader still had “a lot” to lose, including his position.