- According to a former US Army general, Russia’s war with Ukraine could end this year.
- The Kremlin will likely turn to nuclear weapons if Moscow suffers defeat in the conflict, he said.
- However, that outcome is not the most likely, retired US Army Brig. General Kevin Ryan to Insider.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war with Ukraine could end this year, according to a former US Army general, who warned that the Kremlin would likely turn to the murky option of nuclear weapons if Moscow were to become involved in the conflict suffered a defeat.
Brig. of the US Army retired. Gen. Kevin Ryan told Insider on Tuesday that he believes Russia “would deploy a nuclear weapon before allowing its military to be defeated in the field.”
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but Ryan said the Kremlin may seriously consider using them if Ukraine “is close to attacking the Russian army in the field.” destroy” or if they were Ukrainian forces were ready to recapture the Crimea region annexed by Russia.
“If in the spring the Ukrainian military had great success and dismembered the Russian military and threatened to recapture Crimea, then I think that the Russian military and its leadership would use a nuclear weapon” not only “to destroy Ukrainian military targets”, but “to convince Ukraine that continuing this war would leave Ukraine behind as a nuclear holocaust,” Ryan said.
He added that the “possibilities are wide” for Russia to use a nuclear weapon.
“The level of deaths could approach that of Hiroshima, or it could be far less if they just intend to fire like a nuclear weapon warning shot in a less populated area,” Ryan said.
That outcome, said Ryan, who served as the US defense attaché in Russia, would be a “devastating” one with the potential for tens of thousands of deaths — but it’s not the most likely scenario.
The most likely scenario for this year, according to Ryan, is that the war will end in a stalemate after relentless fighting and heavy casualties on both sides.
America’s top general, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley, said in November that the war so far with the Joint Chiefs of Staff has killed about 40,000 Ukrainian civilians and “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers “killed and wounded.” had been. the same probably on the Ukrainian side.”
This war’s fighting “at this intensity” and death toll, Ryan told Insider, “probably won’t be able to last another 12 months.”
“I think another year would be a good guess as to when this war might end or reach a stalemate,” Ryan said, realizing he had been wrong once in his predictions about the war.
But there’s no doubt that 2023 will be a “decisive year” for the war, said Ryan, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
“Both sides need to do more damage to the military on the other side for this to come to a conclusion,” he said.
Ryan stated, “Both sides are still too strong to say they have no chance of winning this war. Both armies have a chance to take more territory, so we have to pay attention to the development of the next battles.”
Although Putin’s forces put on a “terrible performance” in the first 10 months of the war and failed to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, “the Russian army is getting stronger” and “is stepping in to provide better defenses in the territories it occupies.” create”. said Ryan.
Ukraine’s military, backed by billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment from the US and West, “is also getting stronger, but it may not be getting strong enough to kick the Russians,” Ryan said.
“This is the big thing that will become clearer to us in the spring and summer when the big fighting resumes,” he said.
If Ukrainian troops can push the Russians out of their defensive positions, “then we may be moving towards a situation where the Russian military could be destroyed or a nuclear weapon could be used,” said Ryan, who asked, “Is that it? more dangerous to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine? Or is it more dangerous that the Russian military will be defeated and destroyed in the field?”
Russia suffered a brutal defeat at the end of World War I and “it helped bring the communist regime in Russia to power,” Ryan said, adding, “To destroy Russia — to destroy its military — would greatly weaken the country and start an internal revolt.”
“It could result in uncontrollable forces being unleashed in Russia,” he said.
If the Ukrainians fail to kick out the Russians, “then we’re in a stalemate,” Ryan said, declaring in a manner similar to the end of the Korean War: “It could happen that Russia and Ukraine agree on a truce, which they don’t Case is does not require much negotiation.”
Last year Ukraine launched a formidable counter-offensive that forced Russian troops to abandon large parts of the territory, but as winter set in the pace of advance slowed.
“The outcome of this war won’t be decided at the negotiating table for a while and won’t be decided in the air by missiles and bombs,” Ryan said. “But it will be determined by the fighting on the ground.”