Here are four ways the world has changed in the 10 days since war returned to Europe.
The invasion of Ukraine did not usher in a new era of big power politics. It was a frantic exclamation mark, confirming one of the most significant changes in the geopolitical world order since 9/11.
In the following years, global terrorism attracted much attention from Western leaders. Al-Qaeda and ISIS were enemies that needed to be confronted. The Kremlin was no longer viewed as the same threat as before, so much so that in 2012, President Barack Obama ridiculed then-presidential candidate Mitt Romney by calling Russia the number one geopolitical enemy of the United States. .
By then, Putin had already shown that he was seeking to destroy the post-Cold War order.
The former KGB intelligence officer took office in 2000, promising to restore Russia’s former glory, sometimes through military force. As prime minister in 1999, he launched an offensive in Chechnya against separatist fighters. In 2008, the Kremlin invaded Georgia and recognized the two self-proclaimed republics in a country that was moving closer to Europe at the time. More recently, Putin’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — ostensibly as an ally in the war on terrorism — has not earned him the favor of Western democracies, not least because of credible reports of the Syrian dictator’s decision to attack his own people with weapons. chemical weapon. Putin’s decision to annex Crimea in 2014 and support separatists in eastern Ukraine led to sanctions and was strongly condemned. The same can be said about Russia’s alleged attempts to kill its enemies on foreign soil.
But Putin remained an important player and partner, albeit a dubious one, for leaders from Washington to Warsaw into the 2010s. Russia has been an important factor in the fight against ISIS; the main energy supplier in Europe; and helped negotiate important diplomatic agreements such as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Last week’s invasion could have put an end to that. After a quarter century of the Western world’s relationship with Putin, he may have finally gone beyond the bounds of the possible and become a pariah.
In response, the Western world has hit Russia with unprecedented sanctions that have crippled its financial institutions, sent its economy and the ruble into a tailspin, and even targeted Putin personally and some of his inner circle.
“Putin is now more isolated from the world than ever,” US President Joe Biden said Tuesday in his State of the Union address.
A more united Europe
The Russian invasion has also prompted the European Union to make security decisions that would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago.
While the bloc has been one of the most powerful economic players in the world for years, it has failed to turn that power into an equivalent geopolitical power. Historically, the EU has been divided over how central control over foreign policy should be in Brussels. This stood in the way of the high global ambitions of the EU, as political proposals were softened during negotiations or simply vetoed.
European views on defense, security and international politics have changed in a matter of days. He is now waking up from a decades-long dream that the stability provided by an interconnected world will prevent war from starting and that, if the worst happens, America will deal with it.
The shock of the war returning to Europe has united the 27 EU member states. The bloc is now using its economic power for geopolitical purposes, using the most severe package of sanctions it has ever imposed on Russia.
The bloc provided funding for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine for the first time. Germany, which for decades objected to a militaristic approach to foreign policy, is now taking part in arming Ukraine and increasing its military spending in response to the invasion.
“The crisis in Ukraine has shattered the illusion that security and stability in Europe come for free,” a senior European diplomat told CNN this week. “When there was no real threat, geopolitics seemed distant. Now there is a war on our border. Now we know we have to pay and work together.”
A million people on the move
One million people fled their homes in the first seven days after Russia invaded Ukraine, one of the fastest and largest human migrations in recent memory. By comparison, in 2013, when the number of departures peaked, it took a million refugees three months to leave Syria. may face an unprecedented migration crisis.
“I have worked in refugee emergencies for nearly 40 years and have rarely seen an outcome as quick as this,” said Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
There were also several reports of racism against people of color and non-Ukrainians at the border.
The future of refugees remains unclear. If Russia overthrows the democratically elected Ukrainian government, will these people want to return home? And what if after the fights they have nowhere else to return?
Food and fuel
Gas prices in the United States rose sharply after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Experts are concerned that food prices could rise sharply after already rising “dramatically” last year. And Moody’s warns that global supply chains, already devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic, could plunge further into chaos. Stocks around the world fell on Friday, with Europe hit particularly hard.
The fighting in Ukraine has resulted in economic and human losses around the world, especially when it comes to energy.
Although Europe has been saying for years that it needs to move away from Russian energy, Moscow is the EU’s largest supplier of oil and natural gas. Europe could survive if Russia cut off supplies, but it would not be cheap or easy.
The conflict is also a pocket issue that could determine whether families can put food on the table. According to the Executive Director of the World Food Program (WFP), David Beasley, in Ukraine alone, three to five million people will need food assistance immediately.
But Russia and Ukraine are also among the world’s top wheat producers. Together, they account for 23% of all global exports, according to S&P Global.
“Fear of conflict looming over the world’s two biggest suppliers will clearly have some impact on prices when there is already a sense of scarcity,” said Julien Barnes-Dacy, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Foreign Affairs Council.
While Ukraine has been described as Europe’s breadbasket, the Middle East is a particular concern, which is Kyiv’s third-biggest wheat buyer in the 2020/2021 market year, according to the USDA. The Middle East or Africa alone accounted for over 40% of the country’s recent wheat exports.
CNN’s Luke McGee, Matt Egan, Chris Isidore, Nadine Ebrahim, and Eoin McSweeney contributed to this report.